7/30: ATL @ FLA

1) Javier Vazquez: 110 pitches. 8 strikes swinging. 3 Fastballs (4th, 2 in 5th), 2 Curves (1st, 5th), 2 Changeups (4th, 6th), Slider (6th)

• Vazquez is a 6-2, 210 pound righty. The 33 year old has a medium frame that looks the same when he came up and isn't going to add any more muscle. He came from a 3/4 release, though he will drop down every once in awhile to lefties to throw FB's away. His fastball has some run in on righties. His change has above average fade from lefties with solid sink. His slider is a 2-7 with above average bite and he calls it a slider/cutter and it can move like a cutter on occasion with cut and a little sink at times. His curve is a 12-6 with above average depth that can be a strikeout pitch. He will add and subtract from all his pitches. Solid # 2 starter and he should have a ton more wins.

1st: FB (89-94), SL (84), CB (74-78), CU (82)

2nd: FB (91-93), SL (81-86), CB (68-74), CU (80)

3rd: FB (91-92), SL (84), CB (74-78), CU (82)

4th: FB (92), SL (80-84), CB (72), CU (77-80)

5th: FB (91-93), SL (81-85), CB (70-76)

6th: FB (91-92), SL (83-85), CB (76), CU (76-81)

7th: FB (91-93), SL (84), CB (70-75), CU (77-83)

8th: FB (90-93), SL (78-84), CB (73-74)

2) Rick VandenHurk: 95 pitches. 10 strikes swinging. 5 Fastballs (2 in 3rd, 2 in 4th, 6th), 4 Sliders (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th)

• Rick is a 6-5, 195 pound righty. The 24 year old has a big frame that can add a lot more muscle. He came from a 3/4 release and showed a fastball with good run in on righties with some sink. His slider is a sharp 2-7 with average bite. His change has some fade from lefties and a little sink. He is a 2-trick pony and needs to further refine his change to be a starter. His control is good, but his command can be erratic and he can miss in the middle of the plate with all his pitches. As a starter, his upside is that of a # 3 and would likely settle in as a 4. As a reliever, he would be a classic sinker-slider and should be a solid middle guy.

1st: FB (91-93), SL (83-84), CU (85)

2nd: FB (90-93), SL (84), CU (86)

3rd: FB (90-94), SL (82-84), CU (84-86)

4th: FB (91-94), SL (82-86)

5th: FB (91-93), SL (81-86), CU (86)

6th: FB (90-95), SL (83-87)

3) Kiko Calero: 21 pitches. 0 strikes swinging.

• Calero came from an over the top release and shwoed a change with good fade and above average sink, a fastball with some run in on righties and a 2-7 slider with above average bite.

7th: FB (87-89), SL (79-81), CU (81)

4) Dan Meyer: 11 pitches. 3 strikes swinging. Fastball, 2 Cutters.

• Meyer came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with some run in on lefties and a cutter with solid cut.

8th: FB (89-91), Cut (86-88)

5) Mike Gonzalez: 24 pitches. 3 strikes swinging. 2 Fastballs, Slider.

• Gonzalez came from a high 3/4 release and showed a fastball with some run in on lefties and a 11-5 slider with good bite. He has both a get me over slider that can look like a curve and a sharp out pitch version.

8th: FB (88-93), SL (76-84)

6) Brendan Donnelly: 17 pitches. 4 strikes swinging. 2 Fastballs, 2 Sliders.

• Donnelly came from a high 3/4 release and showed a fastball with some run in on righties and a little sink, a 2-7 slider with some bite and a change with solid dive.

9th: FB (89-92), SL (87-88), CU (81)

7) Peter Moylan: 14 pitches. 2 strikes swinging. Fastball, Slider.

• Moylan came from a sidearm release and showed a fastball with good run in on righties and sink and a sweeping 3-8 slider with good bite.

9th: FB (86-90), SL (76-79)

8) Luis Ayala: 27 pitches. 0 strikes swinging.

• Ayala is a 6-2, 190 pound righty. The 31 year old has a medium frame that can add a little more muscle. He came from a 3/4 release and showed a fastball with some run in on rightesi and a 2-7 slider with some bite.

10th: FB (90-92), SL (82-87)

9) Rafael Soriano: 18 pitches. 2 strikes swinging. 2 Sliders.

• Soriano came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with some run in on righties and sink, a cutter with good cut and a 2-7 slider with above average bite.

10th: FB (92-95), SL (82-84), Cut (89-91)

Chart Observations: SEA @ MIN

• King Felix Hernandez started for the Mariners and did not have his best stuff. He also grimaced noticeably on the mound. Hernandez did not throw many curveballs, which I think may be his best (and most underutilized pitch) in favor of more changeup to the left handed heavy Twins lineup. Hernandez was sitting at 91-95 with his fastball, a mid 80's slider, a high 80's changeup that doesn't move much and a low 80's curveball. Felix is still amongst the best pitchers in the game irregardless of this one outing and is still a # 1 starter for a contender.
• Francisco Liriano opposed him (those 2 start and the final is 9-6?). Liriano pitched well through the 1st 3 innings, but then struggled to command his fastball to get ahead of hitters to set-up his plus changeup. Liriano was 90-92 with his fastball and threw a mid 80's slider and low 80's change. Liriano had right handers flailing at his changeup and lefties struggled to contact the slider, but with his velocity in the low 90's and struggling to command it, hitters were able to get into fastball counts.
• Sean White showed me an off-speed pitch in addition to his fastball sitting at 91-94. He threw a low 80's changeup and a low 80's curveball. Neither of these pitches were very special. White has a plus fastball, but has command issues and still appears to be looking for a 2nd pitch. Safeco can only cover up so much, but this kid appears to be a decent 10th guy in the bullpen.
• Denny Stark is currently in the middle of his obligatory 2-week call-up he gets every season. Stark actually featured a fastball at 91-95, much harder then I thought he threw. He also showed a mid 80's slider and mid 80's changeup. The fastball velocity helps explain why he keeps getting chances, but his lack of command coupled with no other real above average offering explains why he keeps riding the bus from Seattle to Tacoma.
• David Aardsma continues to showcase himself, sitting at 92-95 with his hard 4-seamer and was popping in sliders at 81-84. Aardsma has always had the stuff to close. A strong reliever when his command is right, has he finally figured it out?
• Miguel Batista attacked hitters with a fastball at 92-94, a cutter at 86-88 and a changeup at 79. His velocity is back and his cutter has enough movement for hitters to not square it up. I still think he is a little over exposed as a set-up man, but a middle reliever that can give you 2 or 3 innings at a time to bridge a gap are valuable (just not as valuable as what they are currently paying him).
• Luis Ayala was one of the pitchers that I have tabbed to regress this season. He pitched with a fastball at 89-91 and a slider and changeup that sat in the low to mid 80's. Ayala's slider just doesn't seem to have the same bite as it used to and he has begun to mix in more changeups (a fairly straight pitch and is a little below average) and his moving 2-seam fastball. I just don't see how he can last the full season in the pen.
• Matt Guerrier went after guys with a fastball at 90-91, a slider at 82-85, a curveball at 77-78 and a changeup at 83. His fastball is just average, but his slider and curveball are each above average pitches while his changeup drops just enough to make a hitter swing over the top of it. His plus command also allows his pitches to play up. Still think he is more of a middle reliever then an 8th inning guy.
• Joe Nathan didn't show too much of his formerly over-powering slider. He still features a plus fastball (93-95), but the slider was everywhere radar gun wise (82-87) and he also threw a slightly above average curveball (81-83). He is still a quality closer and is amongst the best in baseball and I think his slider will bounce back soon enough.

Relief Pitcher Check

For those of you unaware, I am author of a long study evaluating the regression of relief pitchers (and for those of you that do know, it is growing, I am currenly adding specific pitch type and a completely redone disabled list database). Anyways, I identified my top 5 candidates for regression according to the evals and here they are with a quick stat check and my reasoning:

Luis Ayala: Posted 2nd highest Days of Rest score in his career in 2008 and has regressed each time he has posted a qualifying Days of Rest score.

8 Appearances, 1-1, 6.48 ERA. 13 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 8.1 IP

Dennys Reyes: The last time he was worked as hard as he was in 2008 was 2006. In 2007, he regressed greatly.

9 Appearances, 0-1, 3.18 ERA. 3 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 5.2 IP

Brad Lidge: Qualified under 4 criteria in 2008, as well as the 3-season Total IP for 2006-2008. The last time he qualified under these criteria (2006), he suffered regression the next year.

8 Appearances, 0-1, 8.22 ERA. 10 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 7.2 IP

Pedro Feliciano: Qualified under the Days or Rest criteria in 2007 and showed regression in 2008. For 2008, he qualified under 4 criteria, including an even greater number in the Days of Rest evaluator.

9 Appearances, 0-1, 4.76 ERA. 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 5.2 IP

John Grabow: Qualified for the +/- Pitches category in 2006 and regressed in 2007. In 2008, he has qualified for the +/- Pitches in addition to the +/- Inning category.

7 Appearances, 1-0, 0.00 ERA. 7 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 7.1 IP

Updates as actions warrant on these 5 pitchers.