Relief Pitcher Repetoire Final Update

The 5th and final Eval (Split) is complete.

According to the 3 True Outcomes:
> 25 % = 71.43 % Regress
20-24.99 % = 63.64 % Regress
15-19.99 % = 72.22 % Regress

According to DICE:
> 25 % = 57.14 % Regress
20-24.99 % = 81.82 % Regress
15-19.99 % = 61.11 % Regress

Now, for the fun part that will take awhile to complete.

I am aware one of the issues with evaluating repetoire is establishing both how important the pitch is to his repetoire and how good it is. I am working to see if there is a way to get that issue resolved by getting more information.

Relief Pitcher Repetoire Update

The 4th Eval (CU) has been completed.

According to the 3 True Outcomes:
> 40 % = 25 % Regress
35-39.99% = 60 % Regress
30-34.99 % = 78 % Regress
25-29.99 % = 75 % Regress

According to DICE:
> 40 % = 50 % Regress
35-39.99 % = 60 % Regress
30-34.99 % = 66.67 % Regress
25-29.99 % = 70 % Regress

Basically, these numbers are all over the place pre-injury. Can't even come up with a good cut-off yet within these numbers due to the top guys having those types of numbers right now.

Relief Pitcher Repetoire Update

The 3rd Eval (CB) has been completed.

According to the 3 True Outcomes:
> 35 % = 75 % Regress
> 30 % = 83.33 % Regress
> 25 % = 50 % Regress

The DICE findings are exactly the same as those above.

Chart Observations: STL @ CLE

• Cliff Lee is a 6-3, 190 pound lefty. The 30 year old has a medium to big frame with room to add a lot more muscle. He comes from a high 3/4 release. His front (glove, right) arm stays bent throughout the entire wind-up. His fastball has some natural sink and run. His curveball is a big breaking 11-4 pitch with good depth. His cutter shows some cut and sink while his change is a straight offering with some sink that looks like a fastball out of his hand. His slider was thrown once and generated a weak groundball on an 0-2 count to a lefty. He is primarily FB-CU with some cutters and curves mixed in. He doesn't really have a true out pitch and he pitches to weak contact. While he had a no hitter through seven, he wasn't really dominant, as the Cardinals got some very good contact on him. Borderline ace, but one who will fall off quicker then some others.

1st: FB (88-92), CU (84-85), CB (75-77), Cut (88)

2nd: FB (91-92)

3rd: FB (91-94)

4th: FB (89-93), CU (84-86), CB (76-78)

5th: FB (89-92), CU (85), CB (74-76)

6th: FB (91-92), CU (85), Cut (88-89)

7th: FB (91-92), CU (84-85), CB (77-78)

8th: FB (91-92), CU (84-85), CB (76), Cut (88-89), SL (82)

9th: FB (88-92), CU (84-85), CB (78)

• Chris Carpenter is a 6-6, 230 pound righty. The 34 year old has a big frame that can get up to 240 if he so chooses. He comes from an over the top release from a very quiet delivery. His fastball shows some fade and a little sink. I believe he throws both a slider and cutter (we just chart slider) and his cutter has good cut. His curveball is a big breaking 12-6 with great depth and he shows the ability to throw it for a strike or bury it for a strikeout at will. His slider is a 2-7 pitch with great bite. He threw one change that went about 40 feet, so who knows how good it is? He is a true ace when healthy, just a question of how long he can stay it.

1st: FB (91-93), SL (87-88), CB (73-76), Cut (87-89)

2nd: FB (92-93), CB (75), Cut (87)

3rd: FB (92), SL (86), CB (75), Cut (87)

4th: FB (91-93), SL (85), CB (75-77), Cut (87)

5th: FB (90-95), SL (86-88), CB (74-78), CU (86)

6th: FB (92-93), CB (75-76), Cut (86-87)

7th: FB (91-92), CB (73-76)

• Chris Perez is a 6-4, 230 pound 23 year old. The righty has a big frame that can add a little more muscle, but not much. He comes from a 3/4 release. His slider is a 2-7 with above average bite and can serve as a strikeout pitch while his fastball has a little fade, but is pretty straight. He also takes the ball out of his glove immediately and taps it against his glove before beginning the arm circle. He could be a future closer, but he has shown command issues (though I haven't seen them) and is more likely to settle in as a set-up man. He is more advanced pitch-wise then fellow bullpen flamethrower Jason Motte, but his command isn't as good yet.

8th: FB (94-96), SL (83-85)

• Luis Valbuena is a 5-10, 195 pound middle infielder. The lefty hitter/righty thrower has a small frame that is close to being maxed out. The 23 year old is more effective with his glove then his bat. He has an above average arm, soft hands and very good range to his glove side. Offensively, he has a very slightly open stance and appears to be lightly holding onto the bat. The bat is a little in front of him and behind his back shoulder. His trigger is a stride where he actually brings his hands forward a little, which will severely limit his power potential. He will bunt for hits and is more of a slap hitter then a guy that hits gaps. Baseball America says he has a higher offensive upside then Asdrubal Cabrera, but I disagree. I think Valbuena's glove can play in the majors, but his bat will prevent him from being an everyday starter. Solid utility infielder though who can play SS, and those do have value.

Baseball game cancelled today. Got the Nats-Yanks (Martis vs. Sabathia) and the Angels-Giants (Santana vs. Sanchez) tomorrow. Traded out of my 8 o clock so that I could scout these games much better.

Chart Observations: NYM @ NYY

• Johan Santana comes from a high 3/4 release and showed a sweeping 11-4 slider with good bite, a change with great fade and sink and a fastball with some fade. His command was off in this game and was the reason he got hit, as he fell behind 3-0 to multiple hitters and struggled to locate his change.

1st: FB (89-91), CU (78-79), SL (80)

2nd: FB (89-92), CU (81-83), SL (80-83)

3rd: FB (89-92), CU (80-85), SL (83-84)

4th: FB (87-90), CU (79-83), SL (83-86)

• A.J. Burnett, a 6-4, 230 pound right hander, opposed him. The 32 year old has a big frame that is maxed out. He comes from a 3/4 release. His fastball shows some good fade and sink. His curveball is a power curve that is a sharp 1-7 offering with goot bite and is a knee buckler when it is on. His change shows good fade and sink, though it is rarely thrown (just the occasional lefty). Ace stuff, 4th starter results and he has been fairly consistent with that throughout his career. His command is just average and can be at any level from inning to inning. I wouldn't have paid him that much money.

1st: FB (94-96), CB (82-83)

2nd: FB (95-96), CB (83-85)

3rd: FB (93-97), CB (81-85)

4th: FB (94-96), CB (81-85), CU (88-89)

5th: FB (93-95), CB (82), CU (89)

6th: FB (93-96), CB (81-84), CU (88)

7th: FB (93-96), CB (80-84), CU (89-90)

• Brian Stokes added fuel to the fire when he entered. The 6-1, 210 pound righty has a medium frame that can add a little more muscle. The 29 year old comes from an over the top release, almost high 3/4 release. He is similar to Brandon League in that the ball comes out of his glove as soon as he starts his delivery, which is a classic drop and drive. He has a mini Ted Lilly style hip turn in his delivery. His fastball has some fade. His change shows sink, but can be fairly straight and was anywhere from below average to above average in this outing. His curveball is a 1-7 offering with okay depth. His change was good when it was down and away, but he showed some issues in getting it there. 10th or 11th guy in a pen, as his fastball is his only consistent major league offering.

4th: FB (92-96), CB (79-80), CU (77-80)

5th: FB (92-96), CB (78), CU (79-82)

• Jon Switzer is a 29 year old lefty who stands 6-3, 210. He has a medium to big frame that is maxed out. He comes from a high 3/4 release. He has a weird finish to his arm action, as he almost flicks the ball and that put a lot of extra stress on his elbow (may explain some of his injury issues in his younger years). His fastball is a fairly straight 4-seam. His slider is a 10-4 offering with good bite and his change shows a little fade. He tired in his 2nd inning of work, limiting him to mostly LOOGY work where his FB-SL combo can try to do some work.

6th: FB (88-90), SL (81-83), CU (81)

7th: FB (86-91), SL (82-83), CU (79-83)

• David Robertson is a 5-11, 190 pound right hander. The 24 year old has a small frame that is maxed out. He comes from an over the top release and hides the ball very well in a classic drop and drive delivery. His fastball is a straight 4-seam that looks like it may have some extra giddy-up on it. His power cruveball is a 12-6 pitch with good depth and can generate swings and misses. Setup man is probably his ceiling and he should have a pretty good chance of reaching it.

8th: FB (91-94), CB (79-80)

• Ken Takahashi comes from a high 3/4 release with a sweeping 10-4 slider, a straight 4-seam fastball, a change that shows some good fade, a big breaking 11-4 curve with decent depth and a 2-seam fastball with some fade and sink that he likes to throw in on lefties.

7th: 4 (86-89), SL (78), CU (81-82)

8th: 4 (87-90), 2 (84), SL (81), CU (82-83), CB (73)

• Phil Hughes, a 6-5 240 pound 24 year old, has moved to the bullpen. The right hander has a big frame that can probably get up to 250. He comes from a 3/4 release. He shows a fastball with some fade and sink, though it can be inconsistent. The curveball is a sharp 3-8 offering with great bite and depth while his newly added cutter has a little cut and sink, but it can be straight. Remember when him and Homer Bailey were regarded as the top pitching prospects in the game? They are now both at major career crossroads (at least as major as you can get for guys under 25). Hughes has the ability to be a back of the bullpen reliever with his FB-CB combo, but he will likely be receiving another opportunity in the rotation shortly and he is more valuable to the Yankees in the rotation.

9th: FB (93-95), CB (75-78), Cut (89)

• Francisco Cervelli is a 6-1, 210 pound catcher. The 23 year old righty thrower/hitter has a medium frame that is maxed out. He has a straight on stance with a little crouch and features a trigger of a toe turn and cocking of the bat. His swing can get a little long at times. He is regarded as a defense first catcher and I can neither confirm nor deny it, as the Mets never forced him to do anything. His bat will not play as a starter though. He doesn't show much power either now or down the road and merely hits gaps. He doesn't have a great eye at the plate and will get himself out. These couple of months in the bigs have served him pretty well, but he is just an organizational catcher unless his defense is Jose Molina good.