Life On The Farm: Cincinnati Reds (# 14)

Is the future bright?

Graduated To Majors: Drew Stubbs (CF, # 3), Chris Dickerson (CF, # 12), Adam Rosales (3B, # 29), Paul Janish (UR, SS), Juan Francisco (1B, # 8), Ryan Hanigan (C, # 16), Craig Tatum (C, # 18), Ramon Ramirez (SP, # 17), Josh Roenicke (RP, # 14, now with Blue Jays), Carlos Fisher (RP, # 24), Robert Manuel (RP, # 27, now with Mariners), Matt Maloney (SP, # 18), Pedro Viola (RP, # 25), Danny Ray Herrera (RP, UR)

Rest Of The Top 10 (with quick commentary)
Hitters: BA-OBP-SLG, AB, HR-RBI, BB-K, SB-CS
Pitchers: G-GS, W-L, ERA, IP-H-HR-BB-K

1 - Yonder Alonso: 1B
R: .133-.278-.133, 15, 0-0, 3-1, 0-0
Hi A: .303-.383-.497, 175, 7-38, 24-30, 0-1
AA: .295-.372-.457, 105, 2-14, 14-15, 1-0
Quick Take: Showed a strong all around offensive game in first full season.

2 - Todd Frazier: ?
AA: .291-.352-.484, 446, 14-68, 42-66, 7-8
AAA: .302-.362-.476, 63, 2-9, 6-12, 2-0
Quick Take: Looked good in brief AAA debut, now they just need to settle on a position for him.

4 - Chris Valaika: SS
AAA: .235-.271-.344, 366, 6-36, 16-76, 1-0
Quick Take: Needs to have a bounce back year next year to not get lost behind Janish.

5 - Yorman Rodriguez: CF
R (GCL): .274-.347-.321, 84, 0-2, 10-23, 5-0
R (PIO): .219-.259-.344, 183, 3-17, 9-61, 5-2
Quick Take: 17 year old still is all developmental.

6 - Kyle Lotzkar: RHP
Lo A: 10-10, 2-3, 3.58, 37.2-29-2-24-50
Quick Take: Was working his way back from a stress fracture in his elbow.

7 - Neftali Soto: 3B
Hi A: .248-.282-.362, 505, 11-57, 23-95, 1-3
Quick Take: Rough year for the 20 year old.

9 - Juan Duran: RF
R: .177-.218-.268, 164, 0-17, 8-52, 0-0
Quick Take: Good thing he just turned 18.

10 - Devin Mesoraco: C
Hi A: .228-.311-.381, 312, 8-37, 35-76, 0-1
Quick Take: Another rough season, as Mesoraco hasn't yet hit since entering pro ball, but continues to get promoted.

AAA: Louisville Bats (IL)
Breakout Hitter: Adam Rosales (# 29): .349-.408-.596, 109, 5-20, 12-15, 4-0
Disappointing Hitter: Chris Valaika (# 4): Line above.
Breakout Pitcher: Matt Maloney (# 18): 22-22, 9-9, 3.08, 143-143-11-24-125
Disappointing Pitcher: Daryl Thompson (# 11): 8-6, 1-2, 6.59, 28.2-34-3-7-8
Quick Take: Rosales and Maloney made the jumps to the big clubs. Valaika is in danger of falling behind Janish on the organizational depth chart. Thompson continues to try and find the stuff he had in the Nats system.

AA: Carolina Mudcats (SL)
Breakout Hitter: Chris Heisey (# 22): .348-.427-.577, 267, 13-40, 33-33, 13-1
Disappointing Hitter: Logan Parker (UR): .221-.312-.334, 389, 6-46, 51-95, 5-6
Breakout Pitcher: Travis Wood (UR): 19-19, 9-3, 1.21, 119-78-2-37-103
Disappointing Pitcher: Jerry Gil (UL): 24-4, 3-4, 8.21, 49.1-51-9-48-30
Quick Take: Heisey went to the Futures Game based off his strong 1st half. Wood has leapt back onto the prospect charts after posting a 1.77 ERA at AA and AAA with solid strikeout numbers for a lefty. Parker struggled this past year while Gil suffered a setback in trying to return to the big leagues as a pitcher.

Hi A: Sarasota Reds (FSL)
Breakout Hitter: Yonder Alonso (# 1): Line above.
Disappointing Hitter: Jason Louwsma (UL): .193-.230-.285, 347, 4-27, 18-68, 1-1
Breakout Pitcher: Jeremy Horst (UR): 23-23, 6-13, 3.25, 133-136-15-41-101
Disappointing Pitcher: Jerry Gil (UL): 12-10, 3-7, 7.74, 47.2-66-7-29-30
Quick Take: Alonso did nothing to dimish his status while Horst, a lefty, showed a solid enough mix to suggest he can pitch in the majors. Louwsma wasn't touted, but if you hit .190 with over 300 at bats, you are going to take that honor. Yep, Gil struggled badly at 2 different levels.

Lo A: Dayton Dragons (ML)
Breakout Hitter: Alex Oliveras (UL): .307-.317-.443, 140, 2-17, 2-31, 5-2
Disappointing Hitter: None notable.
Breakout Pitcher: Matt Fairel (UR): 19-19, 8-5, 2.93, 110.2-98-9-37-107
Disappointing Pitcher: Oscar Castro (UL): 25-16, 2-5, 7.56, 89.1-120-15-38-48
Quick Take: Oliveras was the best of a rather undistinguishable offense, though his plate discipline issues will get him if he doesn't adjust (just 20). Fairel showed well in his first pro season and may be a steal as a 35th rounder. Castro struggled to do much of anything.

TK's Early 2010 Top 10 Prospects:
1) Yonder Alonso: 1B
One of the better prospects in the game.
2) Chris Heisey: LF/RF
Can he continue to capitalize on his breakout season.
3) Jeff Frazier: UTIL
Bat will play, will versatility be blessing in disguise?
4) Travis Wood: LHP
Will compete for a rotation spot in spring training.
5) Kyle Lotzkar: RHP
If healthy, one of the better arms in the minors.
6) Mike Leake: RHP
8th overall pick will make pro debut next year.
7) Juan Carlos Sulbaran: RHP
Didn't dazzle this year, but his upside and experience on the international scene will pay huge dividends eventually.
8) Brad Boxberger: RHP
Supplemental 1st rounder will make pro debut next year.
9) Yorman Rodriguez: CF
Ton of upside, ton of development time.
10) Matt Fairel: LHP
Showed well in full season debut, can he continue his ascent?

Dropped From Top 10: Valaika (# 4), Soto (# 7), Duran (# 9), Mesoraco (# 10)

Final Overview: Hmmm. They have some of the better top tier talent in their top 5, but then everyone else is either boom or bust or not quite proven. This system is improving, though I was surprised this was the # 14 system in the big leagues at the start of the year. I think BA may have bought too much hype from some of those young Dominican OF's. On the way up, but their ranking will likely fall to the late teens or early twenties.

Chart Observations: GM 3 PHI @ COL

1) Jason Hammel: 75 pitches. FB, CB, SL, CU. 9 strikes swinging. 4 Curveballs, 2 Fastballs, 2 Sliders, Changeup.

• Hammel came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with good run in on righties and some sink, a change with some fade from lefties and good sink, a sharp 12-6 curve with slightly above average depth and a 2-7 slider with good bite.

1st: FB (92-94), CB (78-79), SL (85), CU (85) - FB (Victorino), CU (Rollins), CB (Howard)

2nd: FB (91-93), CB (77-79), SL (83-84) - SL (Feliz), CB (Feliz)

3rd: FB (92-93), CB (77-79), CU (85) - CB (Rollins)

4th: FB (90-93), CB (77-79), SL (84-86), CU (83) - FB (Ibanez), CB (Ibanez), SL (Feliz)

2) J.A. Happ: 76 pitches. FB, Cut, CU, CB. 7 strikes swinging. 3 Fastballs, 3 Changeups, Cutter.

• Happ came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with a little run in on righties and showed a little sink, a straight change with some sink and some fade from lefties, a cutter with solid cut and a

1st: FB (88-93), Cut (83-86), CU (80-83) - FB (Torrealba), Cut (Atkins)

2nd: FB (89-93), Cut (81-85), CU (81-82) - 2 CU (Fowler - 2)

3rd: FB (89-92), Cut (82-84), CU (81-83) - 2 FB (Torrealba, Spilborghs), CU (Spilborghs)

3) Joe Blanton: 34 pitches. FB, CU, SL, CB. 3 strikes swinging. Fastball, Slider, Changeup.

• Blanton came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with some run in on righties, a 2-7 slider with good bite, a change with good fade from lefties and some sink.

4th: FB (87-90), SL (83-85), CU (80-81) - FB (Fowler), CU (Gonzalez)

5th: FB (87-89)

6th: FB (88-90), SL (82-84), CU (79-81) - SL (Spilborghs)

4) Matt Belisle: 19 pitches. FB, SL, CB, CU. 2 strikes swinging. 2 Curveballs.

• Belisle came from a high 3/4 release and showed a fastball with some run in on righties, a 12-6 curve with slightly above average depth and a 2-7 slider with some bite.

4th: FB (91-92), CB (73) - CB (Dobbs)

5th: FB (90-94), CB (74-76), SL (88) - CB (Rollins)

5) Joe Beimel: 1 pitch. FB, CB, CU. 0 strikes swinging.

• Beimel came from a high 3/4 release and showed a fastball with some run in on lefties.

5th: FB (87)

6) Jose Contreras: 29 pitches. FB, SL, Split, CU.

• Contreras came from an over the top release and showed a 2-7 slider with good bite, a drop down fastball with some run in on righties and some sink, a splitter with above average dive that can look like a curveball.

6th: FB (93-96), SL (86-88), Split (78-81) - FB (Werth), SL (Werth)

7) Scott Eyre: 8 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 0 strikes swinging.

• Eyre came from a high 3/4 release and showed a fastball with some run in on lefties and some sink and a straight change with some sink.

6th: FB (90-91)

7th: FB (90-91), CU (79-80)

8) Franklin Morales: 6 pitches. FB, CB, CU.

• Morales came from a high 3/4 release and showed a straight 4-seam fastball, a straight change with some sink and a 11-5 curve with slightly above average depth.

7th: FB (94-96), CB (74), CU (82)

9) Ryan Madson: 16 pitches. FB, CU, Cut.

• Madson came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with some run in on righties and a little sink, a changeup with some fade from lefties and some sink that he will throw to righties and a cutter with some cut and some sink.

7th: FB (94-97), CU (82-84), Cut (90) - 2 FB (Helton, Tulowitzki), Cut (Helton), CU (Torrealba)

10) Rafael Betancourt: 24 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 3 strikes swinging. 3 Fastballs.

• Betancourt came from an over the top release and showed a sharp 2-7 slider with above average bite, a fastball with some cut action and a change with some sink.

8th: FB (91-93), SL (81-84), CU (87) - 3 FB (Werth - 2, Stairs)

11) Chad Durbin: 10 pitches. FB, Cut, CU, CB, SL. 1 strike swinging. Cutter.

• Durbin came from an over the top release and showed a cutter with some cut and a fastball with good run in on righties and some sink

8th: FB (89-92), Cut (87-88) - Cut (Spilborghs)

12) Huston Street: 19 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 1 strike swinging. Changeup.

• Street came from a 3/4 release and showed a fastball with some run in on righties and some sink, a change with some fade from lefties and some sink and a 2-7 slider with good bite.

9th: FB (89-93), SL (82-84), CU (82-83) - CU (Rollins)

13) Brad Lidge: 20 pitches. FB, SL, CU.

• Lidge came from an over the top release and showed a 2-7 slider with above average bite and a straight 4-seam fastball.

9th: