Saturday, October 3, 2009
Life On The Farm: Washington Nationals (# 21)
Graduated To Majors: Justin Maxwell (CF, # 11), Roger Bernadina (CF, # 18), Ian Desmond (SS, # 19), Alberto Gonzalez (SS, UR), Jordan Zimmerman (SP, # 1), Garrett Mock (SP, # 12), Shairon Martis (SP, # 13), Craig Stammen (SP, # 20), Marco Estrada (SP, # 21), Tyler Clippard (RP, UR), Ross Detwiler (SP, # 2), Mike Hinckley (RP, # 22)
The Rest Of The Top 10 (with quick commentary)
Hitters: BA-OBP-SLG, AB, HR-RBI, BB-K, SB-CS
Pitchers: G-GS, W-L, ERA, IP-H-HR-BB-K
3 - Chris Marrero: 1B
Hi A: .287-.360-.464, 414, 16-65, 42-97, 2-3
AA: .267-.345-.387, 75, 1-11, 8-18, 0-1
Quick Take: Worked his way to a promotion and showed he wasn't quite ready for AA for the end of this season.
4 - Michael Burgess: RF
Hi A: .235-.325-.410, 480, 19-71, 54-135, 12-8
Quick Take: The most disappointing season in their system. Likely a repeater of the level next season.
5 - Jack McGeary: LHP
SS: 13-13, 2-6, 4.24, 57.1-61-5-41-46
Lo A: 13-13, 0-6, 6.79, 55.2-58-4-45-44
Quick Take: Disaster, thy name is Jack McGeary's 2009 season.
6 - Derek Norris: C
Lo A: .286-.413-.513, 437, 23-84, 90-116, 6-3
Quick Take: The toast of the minors for awhile, can he still hit when every pitcher knows who he is?
7 - Destin Hood: LF
R: .330-.388-.614, 88, 3-24, 8-19, 3-0
SS: .246-.302-.333, 138, 2-24, 11-45, 2-1
Quick Take: Not a terrible season for a high school guy in his first full season. May start the year at Lo A next season.
8 - Adrian Nieto: C
R: .212-.327-.273, 132, 0-16, 20-30, 1-2
Quick Take: This, on the other hand, was a terrible season from a high school and will likely be back in either R or SS next season.
9 - J.P Ramirez: RF
SS: .264-.306-.407, 295, 4-39, 14-45, 6-9
Quick Take: Some struggles, but is another raw high schooler who at least got a lot of development at bats.
10 - Esmailyn Gonzalez (Now Carlos Alvarez): SS
R: .280-.423-.427, 232, 3-25, 49-30, 5-6
Quick Take: The center of an embarassing event that was one of many things that led to the removal of Jim Bowden, he actually put up solid numbers. Now, if only he was still 20 and not 23, there could have been something here...
AAA: Syracuse Chiefs (IL)
Breakout Hitter: Ian Desmond (# 19): .354-.428-.461, 178, 1-14, 20-32, 8-1
Disappointing Hitter: None (all these guys are AAA veterans, nothing unexpected)
Breakout Pitcher: J.D. Martin (UL): 16-15, 8-3, 2.66, 88-75-4-10-63
Disappointing Pitcher: Zechry Zinicola (UR): 26-0, 0-1, 7.56, 33.1-47-2-10-31
Quick Take: Desmond and Martin got their 1st looks of the bigs. The fact the Chiefs didn't have a disappointing hitter is a tough look at the organization, as that means no one of consequence was pretty much at AAA for a full season, meaning a dim future. Zinicola got a 2nd half promotion to AAA and fell on his face badly.
AA: Harrisburg Senators (EL)
Breakout Hitter: Ofilio Castro (UR): .296-.372-.395, 301, 4-36, 37-50, 0-4
Disappointing Hitter: Luke Montz (# 29): .182-.285-.323, 291, 9-35, 41-62
Breakout Pitcher: Drew Storen (UL): 10-0, 1-0, 0.00, 12.1-3-0-6-12
Disappointing Pitcher: Cory Van Allen (# 28): 31-16, 3-5, 5.07, 94-116, 13-31-69
Quick Take: Castro is a 26 year old 3B who finally had a solid season, so take that with a grain of salt. Storen, on the other hand, is a 2009 draftee who may do the impossible and beat Strasburg to Washington. Montz went from big league debut last season to struggling in AA while Van Allen battled balls hit hard in play all season.
Hi A: Potomac Nationals (CL)
Breakout Hitter: Chris Marrero (# 3): Line above.
Disappointing Hitter: Michael Burgess (# 4): Line above.
Breakout Pitcher: Brad Meyers (UR): 15-14, 6-2, 1.43, 88.1-71-1-21-65
Disappointing Pitcher: Colton Willems (# 26): 6-6, 1-4, 7.40, 20.2-27-3-7-12
Quick Take: Marrero propelled himself to AA, while Meyer's projectability finally came to fruition, as I saw him in Lo A last year and graded him as an organizational guy. Burgess struggled very, very badly while Willems has been a disappointment since entering pro ball as a 1st round pick.
Lo A: Hagerstown Suns (SAL)
Breakout Hitter: Derek Norris (# 6): Line above.
Disappointing Hitter: Stephen Englund (UR): .109-.182-.139, 101, 0-5, 9-48, 1-1
Breakout Pitcher: Marcos Frias (UR): 25-23, 9-5, 2.91, 126.2-124-6-30-112
Disappointing Pitcher: Jack McGeary (# 5): Line above.
Quick Take: Norris appears to be one of the better hitters in the minors while Frias took a big step forward and showed swing and miss stuff with good control. Englund's hitting earned him a chance at getting to pitch. McGeary is still young enough to reach his vast ceiling, but he needs to start showing some proof that he can do it.
TK's Early 2010 Top 10 Prospects
1) Stephen Strasburg: RHP
Seriously, do I need to explain myself?
2) Derek Norris: C
The Matt Wieters for that other team in the D.C. area?
3) Drew Storen: RHP
Could see him in the bigs next June if they don't convert him to starting.
4) Brad Meyers: RHP
You know, Josh Johnson of the Marlins used to be an 88 mile per hour fastball, all projectability guy too...
5) Chris Marrero: 1B
Dropped more due to the breakout season and influx of talent then his season.
6) Marcos Frias: RHP
Breakout season, can he follow up with this same level of performance?
7) Danny Espinosa: SS
Futures Game alum looks to keep building and improving.
8) Tom Milone: LHP
22 year old lefty out of USC went 12-5, 2.91 in 27 appearances (25 starts) with 36 walks and 106 strikeouts in 151.1 innings.
9) Michael Burgess: RF
Bounceback season anyone?
10) Destin Hood: LF
High schooler looks to continue to build on his debut.
Dropped From Top 10: McGeary (# 5), Nieto (# 8), Ramirez (# 9), Gonzalez/Alvarez (# 10)
Final Overview: Don't look now, but this system has some impact talent, though not much depth. Strasburg is said to be the greatest prospect ever, but names like Ben McDonald and Todd Van Poppel come to mind in that same vein with the Alex Rodriguez and the Josh Beckett of the awesome prospect list. If guys like Burgess and some of their other guys had strong seasons, they would be in much better shape. The loss of # 1 prospect Jordan Zimmermann to TJS after showing great potential in his rookie season is also a huge blow. This is likely now a middle of the pack farm system. But remember this about the Nats, they are one of the ultimate tools organization and love projectability, so a lot of their guys are going to be more tools then production and will ultimately have more higher ranked busts then others.
Life On The Farm: Minnesota Twins (# 22)
Graduated To Majors: Matt Tolbert (2B, # 22), Jose Morales (C, UR), Anthony Swarzak (SP, # 6), Kevin Mulvey (SP, # 8, now with Diamondbacks), Jeff Manship (SP, # 11), Phillip Humber (SP, # 26), Armando Gabino (Swing, UR), Brian Duensing (SP, # 16), Jose Mijares (RP, # 4)
The Rest Of The Top 10 (with quick commentary)
Hitters: BA-OBP-SLG, AB, HR-RBI, BB-K, SB-CS
Pitchers: G-GS, W-L, ERA, IP-H-HR-BB-K
1 - Aaron Hicks: CF
Lo A: .251-.353-.382, 251, 4-29, 40-55, 10-8
Quick Take: Disappointing debut to full season ball for the 2008 1st round pick.
2 - Ben Revere: CF
Hi A: .311-.372-.369, 466, 2-48, 40-34, 45-17
Quick Take: Continues to just hit and run, will he ever have much power?
3 - Wilson Ramos: C
R: .316-.316-.947, 19, 3-6, 0-0, 0-0
AA: .317-.341-.454, 205, 4-29, 6-23, 0-0
Quick Take: Catcher looks to be ready to be on a crash for the roadblock of the century (aka Joe Mauer) by the end of next season.
5 - Danny Valencia: 3B
AA: .284-.373-.482, 218, 7-29, 31-40, 0-2
AAA: .290-.309-.457, 269, 7-41, 8-37, 0-2
Quick Take: Showed well in 1st exposure to AAA minus the plate discipline aspect.
7 - Shooter Hunt: SP
R: 7-5, 0-4, 7.80, 15-9-0-23-8
Lo A: 7-5, 0-1, 10.70, 17.2-15-1-33-18
Quick Take: "Refined" college starter has lost all semblance of control upon entry into pro ball.
9 - Carlos Gutierrez: SP
Hi A: 11-10, 2-3, 1.32, 54.2-37-1-22-33
AA: 22-6, 1-3, 6.19, 52.1-62-6-24-32
Quick Take: Trying to build up his innings to develop him as a starter, this former college reliever made some strides in getting to AA.
10 - Angel Morales: RF
Lo A: .266-.329-.455, 376, 13-62, 30-104, 19-6
Quick Take: Toolsy player shows plently of tools and also a lot of rawness.
AAA: Rochester Red Wings (IL)
Breakout Hitter: Jose Morales (UR): .336-.413-.436, 211, 2-26, 28-27, 1-3
Disappointing Hitter: Drew Butera (UR): .211-.268-.292. 298, 2-25, 22-49, 0-1
Breakout Pitcher: Armando Gabino (UR): 38-7, 6-4, 2.94, 98-80-7-24-64
Disappointing Pitcher: Tim Lahey (UR): 41-0, 2-3, 5.72, 56.2-70-6-21-44
Quick Take: Morales and Gabino worked their ways to the big leagues this season. Butera was the emergency option in case of an injury to Mauer, but quickly lost his job to Morales while Lahey had a hugely disappointing season for a reliever in the weaker of the 2 AAA leagues.
AA: New Britain Rock Cats (EL)
Breakout Hitter: Wilson Ramos (# 3): Line above.
Disappointing Hitter: Matt Moses (UL): .224-.274-.353, 252, 7-43, 18-52, 4-5
Breakout Pitcher: Jeff Manship (# 11): 13-13, 6-4, 4.28, 75.2-72-2-20-45
Disappointing Pitcher: Deolis Guerra (# 20): 12-11, 6-3, 5.17, 62.2-62-4-17-49
Quick Take: Ramos has put himself on the fast track to Minnesota. Manship propelled himself from AA to making starts in a pennant race. Moses was a former 1st round pick who is dangerously close to getting release. Guerra has been a huge disappointment since coming over from the Mets in the Santana deal, but is slowly putting together sigsn of putting it all together.
Hi A: Fort Myers Miracle (FSL)
Breakout Hitter: Ben Revere (# 2): Line above.
Disappointing Hitter: Deibinson Romero (# 21): .222-.308-.314, 424, 5-56, 51-103, 3-1
Breakout Pitcher: David Bromberg (# 19): 27-26, 13-4, 2.70, 153.1-125-6-63-148
Disappointing Pitcher: Henry Arias (UL): 44-1, 4-5, 5.19, 69.1-72-7-36-55
Quick Take: Revere wasn't really a "breakout", but he was the best of a weak crop of hitters. That weak crop was led by Romero, who suffered a real bad year and will need a bounceback year to remain in the team's plans. Bromberg broke through well, but is one of the rare Twins that is still trying to learn to harness his stuff. Arias is here because some one had to be, as Fort Myers had stellar pitching.
Lo A: Beloit Snappers (ML)
Breakout Hitter: Ramon Santana (UL): .296-.384-.453, 371, 9-60, 50-94, 8-9
Disappointing Hitter: Aaron Hicks (# 1): Line above.
Breakout Pitcher: Joe Testa (UL): 25-1, 0-2, 2.56, 45.2-26-1-23-63
Disappointing Pitcher: Shooter Hunt (# 7): Line above.
Quick Take: Santana came out of nowhere to put up a solid season and he was the best of another weak crop of hitters. Hicks strong pro debut last season led to increased expectations for his full season debut, which he failed to match. Testa got a midseason promotion to Hi A and pitched even better (22 games, 5-0, 1.22, 18 walks, 53 K's in 37 IP). Hunt is searching for his command.
TK's Early 2010 Top 10 Prospects:
1) Wilson Ramos: C
Ramos is the best of the bunch for the Twins, who plays a position with a heck of a roadblock (similar to Ryan Howard vs. Jim Thome back in the day)
2) Ben Revere: CF
Speedy CF looks to try and pass AA test.
3) Kyle Gibson: RHP
2009 1st rounder looks to show he should have been worth a Top 10 pick.
4) Aaron Hicks: CF
Still toolsy, will look to learn from his struggles.
5) David Bromberg: RHP
One of the few Twins prospects who played above their expectations, can he continue to do it?
6) Anthony Slama: RHP
Reliever looks major league ready (81 IP, 112 K's, 40 BB's at AA and AAA)
7) Danny Valencia: 3B
Will be contending for a job in spring training.
8) Carlos Gutierrez: RHP
Will he start or close?
9) Ryan Mullins: LHP
6-6 lefty posted a 4.03 ERA at AA with 36 walks against 133 strikeouts in 145 innings.
10) Tyler Robertson: LHP
Another tall lefty (6-5) who posted a 3.39 ERA at Hi A with 103 K's against 51 walks in 143 innings.
Dropped From Top 10: Hunt (# 7)
Final Overview: Wow, this system has been depleted. Known for their good pitching, more of the same is coming through the pipelines, led by 2009 draftee Gibson, a sure Top 10 pick until he developed arm problems and fell to the Twins at 22. The lack of impact bats is disturbing and the lack of bats period is really, really disturbing. They had better find a way to resign Mauer and Morneau b/c their replacements haven't yet entered the organization. Ramos projects to be a solid average or slightly above average catcher. This system has gotten worse and will likely be in the late 20's next year.
Chart Observations: 10/2 COL @ LAD
- Wolf came from a high 3/4 release and showed a fastball with a little run in on lefties, a sweeping 11-5 slider with good bite, a big breaking 12-6 curve with above average depth and a change with some fade from righties and a little sink that he will throw 3-2.
1st: FB (89-93), CB (67-69), SL (79-80), CU (79-81) - FB (Spilborghs)
2nd: FB (89-91), CB (66-67), SL (80-81)
3rd: FB (88-91), CB (66-67), SL (77-82), CU (78-79) - FB (Spilborghs)
4th: FB (86-89), CB (67-68), SL (80-81), CU (77)
5th: FB (87-90), CB (68), SL (82), CU (79)
2) Ubaldo Jimenez: 115 pitches. FB, SL, CU, CB. 14 strikes swinging. 5 Changeups, 3 Fastballs, 3 Curveballs, 3 Sliders.
- Jimenez came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with a little run in on righties, a 12-6 curve with average depth, a changeup thrown with a splitter grip that has slightly above average diving action that he will throw in 2-0 and 3-2 counts and a hard 2-7 slider with good bite.
1st: FB (93-100), CB (80)
2nd: FB (97-100), SL (88-92), CU (89-90)
3rd: FB (93-100), SL (88-91), CU (88-90), CB (81) - 2 FB (Hudson, Kemp), 2 SL (Ethier, Kemp), CU (Ethier), CB (Ramirez)
4th: FB (94-98), SL (87-89), CU (86-88), CB (80-81) - 3 CU (Loney, Hudson - 2), CB (Hudson), FB (Blake)
5th: FB (95-97), SL (87-89), CU (86-89), CB (77) - SL (Pierre), CU (Ramirez)
6th: FB (96-99), SL (84-89), CU (86-89), CB (76-79) - CB (Blake)
3) Ramon Troncoso: 20 pitches. FB, CB, CU.
- Troncoso came from a high 3/4 release and showed a fastball with good run in on righties and some sink and a sharp 12-6 curve with average depth.
6th: FB (92-94), CB (78-80)
4) Scott Elbert: 2 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 0 strikes swinging.
- Elbert is a 6-1, 215 pound lefty. The 24 year old has a medium frame that is maxed out. He came from a high 3/4 release with a classic drop and drive delivery. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His slider moves more like a cutter and has some bite. Strong arm, but needs to refine his command.
7th: FB (95), SL (91)
5) Ronald Belisario: 17 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 2 strikes swinging. 2 Fastballs.
- Belisario came from a 3/4 release and showed a hard sinker with good run in on righties and some sink and a 3-8 slider with some bite.
7th: FB (95-97), SL (86-91) - 2 FB (Atkins, Spilborghs)
6) Matt Daley: 28 pitches. FB, CB, CU. 0 strikes swinging.
- Daley came from a sidearm release and showed a 2-7 slider with good bite, a fastball with some run in on righties and some sink and a change with good sink and some fade from lefties.
7th: FB (89-91), SL (76-80), CU (81-82)
7) Joe Beimel: 2 pitches. FB, CB, CU. 0 strikes swinging.
- Beimel came from a high 3/4 release and showed a pretty straight 4-seam fastball and a flat 2-7 curve with average depth.
7th: FB (88), CB (74)
8) Rafael Betancourt: 18 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 4 strikes swinging. 4 Fastballs.
- Betancourt came from an over the top release and showed a straight 4-seam fastball and a 1-7 slider with good bite.
7th: FB (93-94), SL (81-83) - 2 FB (Ramirez, Kemp)
8th: FB (92-93), SL (83) - 2 FB (Blake - 2)
9) George Sherrill: 14 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 1 strike swinging. Slider.
- Sherrill came from a high 3/4 release and showed a 11-5 slider with good bite and a fastball with some run in on lefties and some sink.
8th: FB (88-91), SL (74-76) - SL (McCoy)
10) Huston Street: 17 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 1 strike swinging. Changeup
- Street came from a 3/4 release and showed a 2-7 slider with good bite, a fastball with good run in on righties and a change with good fade from lefties and some sink.
8th: SL (83)
9th: FB (91-93), SL (83-85), CU (83)
11) Jonathan Broxton: 17 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 3 strikes swinging. 3 Fastballs.
- Broxton came from an over the top release and showed a straight fastball and a hard 2-7 slider with good bite.
9th: FB (97-100), SL (91) - 3 FB (Tulowitzki - 2, Stewart)
Chart Observations: 10/3 SF @ SD
- Zito is a 6-4, 215 pound lefty. The 31 year old has a big frame that is still skinny and can still add weight if he so desires. He came from a high 3/4 release with his typical mechanics and they are pretty clean. His fastball has a little run in on lefties and some sink. His slider is a 11-5 offering with okay bite. His change has good fade from righties and above average sink. His curve is a big breaking 11-5 with above average depth, but isn't as good as it used to be, though it shows flashes of that old curveball. Left the game after taking an Adrian Gonzalez liner off his throwing arm. Solid # 4 starter.
1st: FB (86-89), SL (80), CB (73-75), CU (73-76) - SL (Venable)
2nd: FB (85-88), CB (71-74), CU (72) - CB (Blanco), CU (Correia)
3rd: FB (85-87), SL (80-81), CB (71-73), CU (76) - SL (A. Gonzalez)
4th: FB (86-87), SL (77-80), CB (72-74) - SL (Venable)
5th: FB (86-88), SL (78-81), CB (74-75), CU (75-76) - SL (Cabrera), CB (Blanco)
6th: FB (86-88), SL (78-81), CB (74-75) - SL (Gonzalez)
2) Kevin Correia: 92 pitches. FB, SL, CB, CU, Cut. 4 strikes swinging. 3 Fastballs, Curveball.
- Correia came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with some run in on righties and some sink, a 2-7 slider with good bite, a 12-6 curve with slightly above average depth, a cutter with some cut and a change with a little fade from lefties and a little sink.
1st: FB (91-94), SL (86-87), CB (77)
2nd: FB (91-93), SL (85-87), CB (77-78), Cut (88-89) - FB (Rowand)
3rd: FB (89-93), SL (87), CB (76-79), Cut (86-89) - CB (Torres)
4th: FB (91-93), SL (85-87), CB (76-77), Cut (90) - FB (Uribe)
5th: FB (90-92), SL (86), CB (76-77), Cut (87)
6th: FB (91-92), SL (85-88), CB (76-77) - FB (Velez)
7th: FB (90-93), SL (85-86), CB (75), Cut (89), CU (85)
3) Brandon Medders: 5 pitches. Cut, CB, FB, SL, CU. 0 strikes swinging.
- Medders came from an over the top release and showed a big breaking 12-6 curve with slightly above average depth, a cutter with some cut and some sink and a fastball with some run in on righties and some sink.
6th: Cut (90), FB (90), CB (69-70)
4) Ryan Webb: 23 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 2 strikes swinging. 2 Sliders.
- Webb came from a high 3/4 release and showed a fastball with good run in on righties and a little sink and a 1-7 slider with some bite. He has a pretty violent head jerk.
7th: FB (95-98), SL (85-89) - 2 SL (Lewis, Sandoval)
5) Daniel Runzler: 26 pitches. FB, SL, CB, CU. 4 strikes swinging. 2 Fastballs, 2 Sliders.
- Runzler is a 6-4, 230 pound lefty. The 24 year old has a big frame that is maxed out with a strong lower half. Big, strong kid. He came from a 3/4 release working predominately from the stretch. He brings the ball back in his arm action similar to that of Brad Kilby, but doesn't look too bad. High effort delivery. His fastball has a little late run in on lefties. His slider is a sharp 11-5 with good bite. He has back of the bullpen potential and was impressive despite allowing a home run to Blanco (the first run he allowed in his career, I believe about 10 innings).
7th: FB (94-97), SL (82-85) - 2 FB (Venable, Blanco), 2 SL (Venable, E. Gonzalez)
6) Aaron Poreda: 6 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 0 strikes swinging.
- Poreda came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with good sink and some run in on lefties.
8th: FB (93-95)
7) Sergio Romo: 10 pitches. FB, SL, CU. 1 strike swinging. Slider.
- Romo came from a 3/4 release and showed a fastball with some run in on righties, a sweeping 2-7 slider with good bite and a change with some fade from lefties and good sink. Appeared to injury his ankle during warmups and tried to pitch through it. Could have, but the Giants played it safe and pulled him.
8th: FB (89-91), SL (77-79), CU (83) - SL (A. Gonzalez)
8) Jeremy Affeldt: 11 pitches. FB, CB, CU. 3 strikes swinging. 2 Curveballs, Fastball.
- Affeldt came from a high 3/4 release and showed a pretty straight 4-seamer and a sweeping 11-5 curve with average depth.
8th: FB (93)
9th: FB (93-95), CB (78-81) - 2 CB (Venable, Blanco), FB (Blanco)
9) Ernesto Frieri: 13 pitches. FB, CB. 1 strike swinging. Fastball.
- Frieri is a 6-2, 200 pound righty. The 24 year old has a medium frame that appears to be able to add a little more muscle to about 210. Athletic build that can get a little bigger in the lower half. He came from an over the top release working predominately from the stretch. He has a cocking arm action at the bottom of his arm circle where he straightens his arm out and re-accelerates through to pitch. He also has a fairly violent head jerk. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His curve is a sweeping 1-7 with average depth. He should be a solid middle reliever with the chance to grow into a set-up man if he refines his command. His command is average right now, but a lot of his strikes in this game were down the middle as opposed to on the corners.
9th: FB (94-95), CB (78-79) - FB (Torres)
- Buster Posey is a 6-1, 205 pound righty. The 22 year old righty hitter/thrower has a medium frame that can add a little more muscle, but is close to maxed out. He has a slightly open, crouched stance with his hands held in a generic position just behind his head with a little bat wiggle. Similar stance to Michael Young, but a little more crouched. His trigger is a leg kick and a cocking of the bat that has a lot of action to it, that I think will leave him a little more prone to slumps. His actions are good behind the plate, but he doesn't cover his throwing hand, leaving it exposed to possible foul tips and other things catchers need to worry about. Athletic behind the plate and is quick to get out of his crouch for little squibbers in front of the plate. Appears to be an average or slightly above average arm.