Saturday, May 16, 2009

ARI @ ATL

  • Kenshin Kawakami is another over hyped Japanese pitcher in my opinion. Kawakami attacked guys with a fastball at 86-91, a curveball at 68-73, a cutter at 85-89 and a splitter at 83-86. Kawakami's curveball is his only real plus pitch. However, what he is learning is that it is too slow to be an out pitch here in the U.S. Hitters here are fooled by it, but they recover in time to just flick their wrist and foul it off. Kawakami's fastball and splitter are each average offerings and his cutter is below average and barely cuts. His command is also just average. He comes from a high 3/4 release point and has the classic Japanese delivery with a pause right before the breaking of the hands. His upside to me is that of a back of the rotation starter.
  • Max Scherzer opposed him and represented the other end of the spectrum. Scherzer has great stuff (tonight he was 90-96 with the fastball, though settled in at 92-93 after the 3rd inning, a slider at 85-88 and a changeup at 81-85) but can never pitch out of the 6th inning due to running up high pitch counts. Scherzer's command is above average, but he appears to get into moments where he loses it for a batter or two and allows them to reach. His fastball is plus, his slider is plus and his changeup flashes plus, though he has little command of the change. His mechanics also worry me, as he features a violent head jerk and he puts a lot of pressure on his throwing shoulder due to his arm action. Very good pitcher (likely a # 2 for a contender once he gains some more command), but he will always be a constant injury risk (but, every pitcher is.).
  • James Parr is now a reliever for the Braves. He sat at 87-92 with his fastball, 80-82 with his changeup, 73-79 with his curveball and 80 at the 1 slider he threw. It is also worth noting he was 88-89 in his 2nd inning of work and lost velocity. I mention this because he is a borderline major league reliever as a 1 inning guy but has a chance to be a decent long man. He comes from a straight over the top release, and like every other pitcher that has that release, he has a plus curveball. His changeup is above average, but his fastball is just average. His command is above average right now, though it can jump around from plus plus to average in the course of an appearance. I just don't see a major leaguer here. I see a guy who will be on the bus to Gwinnett and back fairly often. Now, if he can maintain his velocity in the low 90's in multiple inning spurts, then he may stick in a pen.
  • Scott Schoeneweis is your typical LOOGY, featuring a fastball at 88-90 and a slider at 80-82. Got out 2 of the 3 guys he faced. Solid guy in a pen.
  • Juan Gutierrez has bounced back from a terrible year at AAA last year to profile fairly well as a reliever. He showed a fastball at 93 today (only threw 2 pitches), but I have seen him flash a slider and curveball as above average. His command will always be a question that he needs to prove and if he can answer it, he profiles very well as a Tony Pena type reliever.
  • Jeff Bennett showed some command issues tonight and featured a fastball at 91-94 and a slider at 82-87. He appeared to be nibbling instead of attacking hitters. Both his fastball and slider are just average pitches from a 1-inning reliever, but he was typically employed as a multi-inning guy last year where his pitches have more value. Bennett may always have command issues, or he may just be breaking down from last year's work, but neither of those 2 options is very good. Bennett profiles well as a reliever to use when the starter gets pummelled when he has command. If he doesn't have command? You just saw it. That wasn't that valuable (1 IP, 4 BB)
  • Esmerling Vasquez is an intriguing pitcher. He features a fastball at 92-97, a slider at 82 and a changeup at 84-88. Only his fastball is truly plus, while his slider and changeup are currently average. He sports average command, but is a pitcher to watch. The 25 year old has an explosive arm and his slider shows some potential as an out pitch. I believe that I would rather have my young (or somewhat young) arms take their lumps in the majors as opposed to the PCL and he could turn it around. You never know when the light will flick on for command. He is a guy that could be a future closer (though there is a TON of projection to that) and will likely be a solid middle reliever for a contender.
  • Buddy Carlyle, the bus to Gwinnett is waiting. He featured a fastball at 87-90, a cutter at 83-86, a curveball at 72 and a changeup at 76-81. None of his pitches are plus, only the changeup is above average and he struggled with his command tonight. He is a guy that even when he has command only profiles as a mop-up type reliever. I personally think he may be done, but the Braves have a lot of relievers with similar stuff that actually have options to the minors left, so he may get a chance to stick it out and turn it around.
  • Chad Qualls finished the game (for some reason) and featured a fastball at 91-94 and a cutter at 86-87. The Diamondbacks call it a cutter, so that is good enough for me, as I thought it showed some slider action. Both of his pitches are plus (while his fastball velocity isn't what's expected out of a closer, it is a 2-seam that gets great fade and bite). I would still prefer him as a set-up guy with his plus command, but he won't hurt you as a closer.
  • Gerardo Parra, a 5-11 195 pound 21 year old, is a lefty stick that features a stance where he leans back on his back leg with all his weight there, leaving a straight front leg. He taps the bat on his back shoulder and utilizes a toe turn. This was one of the D'Backs top prospects and he showed it in this game. When you see him, he just looks like a player. He is a 60 or 65 runner and features a good looking line drive swing that shows a gap hitter who has plenty of time to add power. His swing has some loft to it, so it isn't out of the question. He is a guy that looks to be a solid starting center fielder for a contender down the road. Right now, I want to see how he reacts in a month when scouting reports get out, as he is very aggressive (which typically means he can't hit off-speed and jumps on early fastballs) and the sign of whether a player will make it as a starter or backup is in that first adjustment. I like him and think he projects to be a .280 hitter with about a .360 on base percentage (was .361-.469 at Mobile-AA) and should hit 15-20 homers a year while stealing 20-25 bases. You want that as your starting CF? I would.

Busy day tomorrow. Will be waking up at about 620 to get ready for church (yea, trying to be religious), then will head into the office after service at about 830 and do 2 charts. After that, we are scheduled (it poured here tonight) to have our first game in that summer league. One of these days, there will be room for a girlfriend in this mound of stuff to do.

NYM @ SF

  • I got to watch Johan Santana pitch for the 1st time in about 2 years and he is definitely amongst the best pitchers in the majors. He was at 89-93 with his fastball, 79-84 with his changeup and 82-86 with his slider. The bad part of this is the Mets seem to take off everyday he pitches, making errors or just not hitting, or both. His fastball is above average due to his plus command, his changeup is plus-plus and his slider was above average. He mainly was FB-CU and had guys way out in front or swinging over the top of his change. If the Mets can ever play defense behind him, his pitch counts would become much more manageable. A legit # 1.
  • Randy Johnson has lost some stuff. He was 88-94 with his fastball, 84-88 with the slider and 83-86 with the splitter. Johnson's slider is now merely a plus pitch and his fastball is slightly above average. The splitter is just an average offering. He still has plus-plus command, but now gets punished when he misses in the zone or teams bloops fall in and both happened to him today. He is a back of the rotation starter for a contender though with his ability to eat up innings and is a valuable pitcher.
  • Justin Miller was picked up by the Giants from the Marlins. He features a fastball at 87-91 and a slider at 78-82. Nothing about this guy is plus. He struggled with his command (I would say it is below average), his fastball is average and his slider may be a tick above average. He has a slight amount of extra movement in his stretch, as the lead foot comes down, then out. Not sure if its anything, but it is a different thing. He seems to be in the mold of Vinnie Chulk or Kiko Calero, but just doesn't have the stuff to be that. Organizational reliever.
  • Merkin Valdez demonstrated his plus arm featuring a fastball at 95-97 and a slider at 85. Valdez was once a top prospect before he had multiple arm surgeries, but he has a plus fastball and a plus slider with average command from a high 3/4 release point and you have to think the more innings he throws, the more his command will develop. I think this kid is a future closer, though he will need to be quick to shed his injury-prone label and show an ability to pitch on back-to-back days.
  • Pat Misch is another reliever who didn't show much. From a 3/4 release, he was 85-89 with his fastball, 84 with his slider, 75-78 with his curveball and 80-82 with his changeup. I liked his curveball, but when you sit at 85-89 with your fastball and only show a little above average command, your error zone gets a lot smaller. I think he is a long reliever in a pen, but he isn't a guy who has LOOGY potential, as his curveball isn't a true out or plus pitch, but just above average. His changeup was also a touch above average, making him a good candidate to face both righties and lefties.
  • Bobby Parnell was another lightning arm on display this afternoon. He was 94-98 with his fastball and 81-85 with his slider. His slider is average, though it has flashed above average a few times I have seen him and his command is also just average. I wouldn't expect him to maintain a sub 2 ERA all season, but it isn't out of the question for a sub 3 ERA and being a solid 7th inning guy if he doesn't get victimized too badly by the Mets defense or balls in play. Parnell's upside is that of a closer, though I think he will settle in as a set-up man.
  • Brandon Medders finished the game for the Giants and got hit around a little bit. Once a hard throwing right hander in the Diamondbacks system, he has made himself into a command and control type pitcher (whether it's an upgrade or not is debatable). He featured a cut fastball at 88-91 (may just be natural cut, but it is a cutter), a curveball at 68-70 and a slider at 80-83. Only the cutter was a real above average pitch and that is only due to the fact he can typically spot it. He only has above average command, so he does tend to leave pitches out over the plate and with his new velocity, he gets hit. His curveball is a plus offering, but is no out pitch, as it is too slow and easy to fight off. Another guy who features best as a 10th or 11th guy in the pen. He will likely continue riding the bus to Fresno and back.
  • J.J. Putz got the save for the Mets and featured his 4-seam fastball at 94-96, a slider at 82 and a splitter at 84-86. The splitter had very good bite today. When the splitter doesn't have good bite, he is forced to rely on his fastball to left handers and that is how he gets hit. His slider is above average and his fastball is also above average. His command is above average, but when he misses with the fastball, he tends to miss up. If he can continue to be consistent with his splitter, he is a luxury for the Mets, as he is a closer pitching the 8th inning.
  • Manny Burriss, a 6-0 190 pound 23 year old, is a switch hitter with a small frame that can add quite a bit more muscle (though if he does, he likely loses some speed). From the right side, he features a crouched stance. He is a plus runner who understands his strengths and looks to pound the ball on the ground. He moves his weight back as the pitcher is about to release. From the left side, he features a crouched stance, but also opens himself up to see the ball better. He may be a tad overexposed as a starting 2Bmen, though he fits their park very well with his speed. I think he winds up being a super utility guy that can play everywhere (he came up as a SS) and being the top guy off a bench for a contender. A career like Chone Figgins also isn't out of question.
  • Pablo Sandoval, a 5-11 245 pound 22 year old, is a switch hitter with a squatty build and a body that would be described by scouts as bad. He has huge thighs, which have to worry you as he ages. His frame is currently maxed out (hard to tell if it is good or bad). He shows a fairly stright up stance and takes a big leg kick right before the pitcher release. He is a below average runner. He is more or of a line drive gap hitter then a masher. His upside is likely close to that of a starting 3B. If he was able to catch everyday, he would be immensely more valuable. The only problem with his as a corner infielder is I don't believe he will show the power needed from those positions and doesn't offer too much defensively. He is the classic defensive tweener, as he can't play OF, can play manageable corner infield spots, but you wish you had someone better there and he can spot catch, but you don't want him catching everyday. I think he is good enough to establish himself as an everyday 3B for a team that gets its power elsewhere (like Philly) and is a guy that will be a .280-.330-.440 guy in his prime. Very aggressive hitter that won't walk much.
  • Travis Ishikawa, a 6-3 225 pound 25 year old, has a big frame that can add a lot more muscle. He features a slightly open stance that is nearly identical to that of teammate Fred Lewis. You would think he would have power his frame, but he also appears to be another gap-hitting San Francisco corner infielder. He is a tweener to me, but a tweener in the sense I think he is a 4-A player. He doesn't offer much in regards to batting average (probably about a .260 hitter), power (maybe 15 home runs, that's the max), defense (kind of lead footed and doesn't have great hands) or speed (just an average runner). Sounds like a 4-A player to me. John Bowker is hitting .317 in AAA. Sounds like its his turn again in the "Who Wants to Play First Base for the Giants And Not Be Worthless?" gameshow.
  • Bengie Molina's catch and throw ability has really deteriorated. He is slow in his exchange, it appears his arm angle has dropped causing the ball to tail towards second base and his arm is just average. However, he is their best hitter, so he will continue to play. It actually scares me to what Sandoval's defensive is like back there, as I would think playing Molina at 1B could be a better option (who knows at this point, he has to be better then John Bowker).