Friday, July 24, 2009

If You Were A GM...

If you were a GM of a contender, what moves, if any, would you make to try and get your team ready for the stretch run?

Here are mine: NOTE: Weakness is according to how I have evaluated the team.

AL East:

New York Yankees
Biggest Weakness: Bridging from starter to Mo.

Strategy: Hold pat. I would hope for a return to form from Chien Ming Wang to be my 5th starter down the stretch. I would also hope to make Phil Hughes a 2 inning set up guy for the stretch drive, as he has been one of the best relievers.

Boston Red Sox
Biggest Weakness: SS

Strategy: Hold pat. I think Jed Lowrie will play well enough down the stretch to at least get us into the wildcard. Done making moves.

Tampa Bay Rays
Biggest Weakness: Bullpen depth.

Strategy: The loss of Chad Bradford hurts my manager's ability to play matchups. I would inquire with the Cleveland Indians about Joe Smith, 25 years old, (holding RH's to a .220 average) and would offer a close to major league ready prospect that doesn't project as much (a Fernando Perez, Chris Nowak, John Jaso) or deal from my surplus of starting pitching prospects as part of a bigger deal including Kerry Wood and offer someone along the lines of a Alex Cobb or Nick Barnese in addition to my near major league ready prospect.

If that fails, I evaluate Ehren Wasserman, 28 years old, of the White Sox (holding AAA RH's to a .228 average) and offer a AA upside bat, such as Rashad Eldridge, a 27 year old who appears to be a good shot to be at least a 4th OF and looks to be able to play CF, a position of organizational need for the White Sox.

Yes, Bradford is only out for the supposed 15 days, but I believe Smith would be an obvious upgrade and Wasserman is a guy who can replace Bradford next season. Always wary of him staying completely healthy.

AL Central:
Detroit Tigers
Biggest Weakness: Corner Outfielder

Strategy: With Matt Holliday out of the market and Wilkin Ramirez having too high of K totals for me to expect him to help us, I evaluate names such as Luke Scott, Jack Cust and Josh Willingham. However, with us moving towards more of a defense oriented pitching squad, these acquisitions would be downgrades defensively. I would sit pat, especially with the return of Carlos Guillen.

Chicago White Sox
Biggest Weakness: 2nd Base.

Strategy: I evalute players such as Brian Roberts, Alberto Callaspo, Mark Ellis, Freddy Sanchez and Luis Castillo, but decide the prices would be too much and hope Getz and Nix can provide enough offense to get us to the playoffs.

Minnesota Twins
Biggest Weakness: 2nd Base and 3rd Base, relief depth.

Strategy: With those 2 gaping holes, I try to correct one of them and hope re-slotting our infielders does the trick. I agree with the current rumor going around, I would look to acquire Orlando Cabrera and Michael Wuertz from the A's. My package would consist of a young lefty pitcher that I personally like as a starter, Brian Duensing and would also include one of Rene Tosoni or Erik Lis. I would not be looking to pay much more then that, as Tosoni projects to a be a major league regular and Cabrera is a rental while Wuertz value is off-set by Duensing being a lefty who could start.

If that fails, I inquire with the Nats about getting Willie Harris, who can spot start at all those positions and should be a good fit for the turf, and Joe Beimel, who should slot well as a 2nd lefty. The package I give up for this would be much smaller though, likely around a starting prospect, Ryan Mullins (who is projectable, which the Nats love, I think he is destined for the pen) and High-A reliever Blair Erickson.

If that fails, I hold my assets and hope Alexi Casilla relearns how to play and that Brian Buscher/Nick Punto/Brendan Harris can keep us afloat at 3B.

AL West
Los Angeles Angels
Biggest Weakness: Starting pitching depth, another reliever

Strategy: I try and get in with the A's about Wuertz, but am not willing to pay a premium for an intra division deal. Doug Davis would be a terrible fit and Roy Halladay would be too expensive. We are familiar with Jon Garland, but the package we would offer likely wouldn't be enough, as if we liked him enough, we would have re-signed him. Sit pat and hope for Ervin Santana to bounce back.

Texas Rangers
Biggest Weakness: Another reliever, starting pitching depth.

Strategy: I inquire with the Mets about Sean Green, a reliever I am familiar with from his days at Seattle and has the groundball tendencies to be solid enough for us for years to come at this ballpark. He also stands to benefit from our infield defense. I offer someone along the lines of Joaquin Arias (who can fill their utility infielder role), Greg Golson (toolsy OF that we mis evaluated) or AAA reliever Brian Gordon (fly ball tendency wouldn't play well for us). I don't give up anyone who has a shot at being great (outside of Golson), but could be MLB ready for the Mets as they try and make a push next year.

If that fails, I pursue Diamondbacks reliever Chad Qualls, but offer a package that is closer to that of a mid level reliever and not a closer. They likely won't accept, but the package would be built around major league ready prospect Julio Borbon or Brandon Boggs. My offer would be Borbon, relief pitcher Thomas Diamond and relief pitcher Evan Reed for Qualls and Garland.

Seattle Mariners
Biggest Weakness: 3B and SS.

Strategy: I stand pat. No sense making a move when our brighter days are ahead of us. I do dangle guys out there, such as Russell Branyan, Erik Bedard and David Aardsma to see if I can get anyone to blow me away.

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Biggest Weakness: SP depth.

Strategy: I do it. I make the move everyone is saying they should. I offer the Blue Jays a package of Carlos Carrasco, Dominic Brown, Jason Donald and Joe Savery for Roy Halladay and Scott Downs. I tell them this is the best package you are going to get. We are not going to give up Drabek, but we will add in Savery. You get our best SS and OF prospect.

If that fails, I stand pat.

Atlanta Braves
Biggest Weakness: Power bat somewhere, Relief pitching depth

Strategy: I talk to Kansas City about Ron Mahay for Diory Hernandez. The Braves likely value Diory higher then I do though, so a more realistic offer would be Deunte Heath, who is more likely to turn into a reliever.

If that fails, I see if the Pirates would be interested in the same type of deal for either John Grabow or Evan Meek.

Florida Marlins
Biggest Weakness: Starting pitching depth.

Strategy: Monetary constraints. Standing pat.

NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Biggest Weakness: 3rd base.

Strategy: I used the last of my funds to get Matt Holliday.

Chicago Cubs
Biggest Weakness: Underperforming big contracts.

Strategy: I look to acquire another starting pitcher, but there aren't any power pitchers that would fit well. I hope Kevin Hart keeps pitching better then his peripherals until Ryan Dempster returns and hope the hitters start performing.

Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest Weakness: Starting pitching.

Strategy: I pursue Jon Garland and Doug Davis, but pulling off that deal earlier in the week for Felipe Lopez tells me that I can't get a deal done there. I then pull to a dark horse and offer the Athletics 2B prospect Drew Anderson for Justin Duchscherer. I don't want to pay anything higher due to him being such a wild card.

If that fails, I turn my attention to trying to extract Jarrod Washburn from Seattle and I let Jack Z take command of the negotiations since he knows the system so well and decide if that is a price I am willing to pay. I would think it would center around young 3B prospect Taylor Green and AAA utility infielder Hernan Iribarren, which I would reject.

Houston Astros
Biggest Weakness: Starting pitching depth.

Strategy: I stand pat. Can't thin out an already thin system

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Biggest Weakness: SP depth.

Strategy: I offer the Blue Jays a package of Devaris Gordon, Xavier Paul, James McDonald, Pedro Baez and Alberto Bastardo for Halladay, Downs and Jeremy Accardo. If they reject this, I stand pat.

Colorado Rockies
Biggest Weakness: Reliever

Strategy: I stand pat after aquiring reliever Betancourt after not being able to get them to give away Kerry Wood.

San Francisco Giants
Biggest Weakness: Power Bat

Strategy: I stand pat. We may be able to compete, but I have visions of a rotation featuring Cain-Lincecum-Sanchez-Bumgarner-Alderson and will wait until these guys prove themselves until I mortgage the future for a hitter.

+/- BTBD Re-Eval

Removed Jim Mecir from 2000.

Removed Jay Powell, Rich Rodriguez, Ugueth Urbina, Rod Beck from 2001.

Changed Gabe White's DICE from Worse to Better in 2001.

Removed Valerio De Los Santos, Paul Shuey, Antonio Osuna, Jesse Orosco from 2002.

Changed Vladimir Nunez from Somewhat Worse to Worse (IP) in 2002.

Removed Kyle Farnsworth, Tom Gordon, Francisco Cordero, Dan Miceli, Jeff Nelson, Guillermo Mota from 2003.

Removed Trevor Hoffman, Ricky Bottalico, Jim Mecir from 2004.

Removed Joey Eischen, Brian Fuentes, Bobby Howry, Bob Wickman, Mike MacDougal, Al Reyes, Russ Springer, Jose Valverde from 2005.

Changed Justin Duchscherer from Somewhat Better to Somewhat Worse (47) in 2005.

Removed Dennys Reyes, Joe Beimel, Chad Bradford, Tom Martin, Ron Mahay, Rick Bauer, Jon Adkins, Joe Borowski from 2006.

Changed Jose Mesa from Somewhat Better to Somewhat Worse (47) in 2006.

Changed Salomon Torres from Somewhat Better to Worse (73) in 2006

Removed Kevin Gregg, Jesus Colome, Javier Lopez, Jose Valverde, Rudy Seanez, Eric Gagne from 2007.

Removed Jeff Bennett, Eddie Guardado, Ron Villone, Neal Cotts, Ramon Ramirez, B.J. Ryan, Tyler Walker, Octavio Dotel, Luis Ayala, Jesse Crain, Ryan Madson from 2008.

Holliday to Cards

The Cardinals have remained busy and according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney has acquired Matt Holliday from the A's for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson. The A's added 1.5 million to the deal, presumably to get Wallace thrown in.

Cardinals Side: Great pick up for St. Louis. Holliday is a much better fit in the NL and can now slot in LF and give the Cards a pretty strong OF in Holliday-Rasmus-Ludwick (who is hitting .391-.449-.681 in the 2nd half) with Rick Ankiel a pretty darn good 4th OF. I think this acquisition makes the Cardinals the favorite in the Central, with the Cubs many hitters playing below expectations and the Brewers inability to acquire an arm.

Athletics Side: Well, now the Hairston acquisition makes sense. Orlando Cabrera was also rumored to be part of this deal as Billy Beane was hoping to install Cliff Pennington at SS, but the acquisition of Lugo ruined that. The A's got some of the best that the Cards system has to offer.

Wallace was the prize of this system that everyone wanted and Beane will likely now move him to 1st since Eric Chavez is firmly entrenched at 3B when healthy. Here is a detailed scouting report on Wallace:
http://tkbaseball.blogspot.com/2009/07/futures-game-us.html

Mortensen is highly regarded despite not putting up earth shattering #'s at any stop. The 24 year old is pitching at Memphis this year and is 7-6, 4.37 in 105 innings, posting 34 walks and 82 strikeouts. According to Baseball America, he pitches with a sinker at 90-93, a hard slider and a developing changeup.

Peterson is currently getting his 1st crack at AA and the 21 year old hasn't disappointed. He started the year at High A and hit .298-.367-.428 with 10 SB's. Now at AA, he is hitting .284-.338-.405 in 74 at bats. He is 6-0, 195 and is a L/L, so he sounds like a potential 4th OF at worst and is making great progress through the system.

Analysis: The Cards get the best bat on the market as a rental while the A's get a package of prospects back. The question the A's need to ask themselves is if they won the deal of Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street and Greg Smith for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson. I don't think they did, as Gonzalez is still putting together the tools to be a starting MLB OF and Street has been a godsend for the Rockies. Meanwhile, I personally question Wallace's ability to be a 20-25 HR guy, which he has to be to be a solid starting corner infielder with his defense and I don't think Mortense or Peterson will have that type of impact. That being said, if the Cardinals do not make the playoffs, the A's win simply because it will be hard for the Cards to offer 16 million in arbitration just in case he accepts. If the Cards make the playoffs, they win the deal easily.

Rox get Betancourt, Sox get Duncan

The Rockies traded Connor Graham to the Indians for Rafael Betancourt while the Red Sox traded Julio Lugo to the Cardinals for Chris Duncan.

Rockies Side: Rockies get a solid middle reliever in Betancourt, who has posted a 3.52 ERA in 29 appearances, working 30.2 IP with 15 BB's and 32 K's. A somewhat extreme flyball pitcher, he goes to a weaker league, but a terrible park for his style.

Indians Side: Graham is a 23 year old in High-A and has posted a 7-4, 3.14 mark in 16 starts. In 80 innings, he has walked 41 and struck out 87. He was in Low-A last year, but Asheville did not visit Columbus.

Analysis: Rockies needed a reliever, Indians needed to get younger. Both teams did as well as could be expected. Give the win to the Rockies just because they were in a terrible need for a reliever and Graham will likely be converted to a reliever down the road anyways.

Red Sox Side: Sox get another lefty stick (presumably to replace Mark Kotsay) and Chris Duncan is their type of player. Duncan has splits of .227-.329-.358 in a weaker league and has experienced a loss of power. Reminds me of a Jeremy Giambi, Bobby Kielty type, a 4th OF who statistically inclined teams think can be a starter, but is best as a bench bat.

Cardinals Side: Cards get Lugo, a good risk for them. Lugo's bat wasn't a problem in Boston (.284-.352-.367) and it isn't out of the realm of possibility for him to now hit .300 in the weaker league. However, he may need to be turned into a utility player, as his defense has fallen off dramatically.

Analysis: 2 guys that needed to go to different places. It's a wash, as neither will make or break either team as they make a run.

Chart Observations: SF @ ATL

1) Tim Lincecum: 89 pitches. 6 strikes swinging. Fastball (1st), Curveball (5th), 4 Changeups (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th)
  • Tim came from an over the top release and showed a fastball wtih good run in on righties with good sink, a change with great fade from lefties with great sink that is his out pitch to both lefties and righties, a sharp 12-6 curve with above average depth that can be a strikeout pitch and a sharp 1-7 slider with above average bite. Battled his command a little bit.

1st: FB (92-95), CU (83-86), CB (73-79), SL (82)

2nd: FB (93-94), CU (83-86), CB (75-78), SL (82)

3rd: FB (91-95), CU (80-84), CB (80), SL (81-83)

4th: FB (89-92), CU (79-84), CB (73-80)

5th: FB (92-93), CU (80-84), CB (75-80), SL (83-84)

2) Jair Jurrjens: 112 pitches. 13 strikes swinging. 5 on Fastballs (2nd, 6th, 3 in 7th), 5 on Changeups (3rd, 4 in 6th), 3 on Sliders (2 in 5th, 7th)

  • Jurrjens came from an over the top release with a fastball with a little run in on righties, a change with good sink and fade from lefties and a 2-7 slider with solid bite. The change is his out pitch and he will throw it to righties. He got stronger as the game went on, as you can see from his swing and miss totals.

1st: FB (89-92), CU (83), SL (79)

2nd: FB (90-94), CU (81-82), SL (80-84)

3rd: FB (89-91), CU (82-85)

4th: FB (89-93), CU (82)

5th: FB (89-94), CU (81), SL (80-81)

6th: FB (90-94), CU (83-84)

7th: FB (90-93), CU (83-84), SL (81)

8th: FB (89-93), CU (83), SL (79-82)

3) Bobby Howry: 25 pitches. 7 strikes swinging. 4 Fastballs (3 in 6th, 7th), 3 Sliders (6th, 2 in 7th)

  • Howry is a 6-5, 220 pound righty. The 35 year old has a big frame that can add a little more muscle. He came from a high 3/4 release and showed a fastball with good run in on righties, a 2-7 slider with good bite and a change with a little fade and sink that is slightly below average. Solid middle righty reliever.

6th: FB (91-93), SL (85-86)

7th: FB (92), SL (86-87), CU (87)

4) Jeremy Affeldt: 13 pitches. 1 strike swinging. Fastball.

  • Affeldt came from a high 3/4 release with a big breaking 11-5 curve with above average depth that is sharp enough to be a strikeout pitch, a fastball with some run in on lefties and a change with some fade from righties with solid sink that he will throw to lefties.

8th: FB (93-95), CB (77-78), CU (87)

5) Mike Gonzalez: 10 pitches. 0 strikes swinging.

  • Gonzalez came from a high 3/4 release with a fastball with some run in on righties and a 11-4 slider with good bite.

8th: FB (92-94), SL (81-85)

6) Rafael Soriano: 15 pitches. 4 strikes swinging. 2 on Cutters, 2 on Fastballs.

  • Soriano came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with a little late run in on righties and a 2-7 slider that is sharp with good bite. Also showed off his cutter which was confirmed through the Braves and it has good cut.

9th: FB (92-94), Cut (88-93), SL (81)

Padres-Nats: Latos vs. Mock

Marlins-Dodgers: Johnson vs. Kershaw

Chart Observations: LAA @ KC

1) Joe Saunders: 109 pitches. 6 strikes swinging. 5 on Fastballs (1st, 2 in 2nd, 2 in 5th) and a Changeup (3rd)
  • Saunders came from an over the top release and showed a straight 4-seam fastball, a 2-seam with good run in on lefties with good sink, a big breaking 11-5 curve with above average depth that may be able to be a strikeout pitch, a change with good fade from righties with good sink and a 10-4 slider with good bite. He will drop down to throw fastballs to lefties with 2 strikes. He will throw 3-2 changes. Your prototypical # 4, lefty finesse starter.

1st: FB (90-93), CB (76)

2nd: FB (90-93), CB (77-81), CU (83-84)

3rd: FB (90-93), CU (82-84), SL (82)

4th: FB (90-93), CB (76), SL (81)

5th: FB (90-93), CB (78-79), CU (82-83)

6th: FB (89-92), CB (76-78), CU (82-83), SL (80)

2) Brian Bannister: 114 pitches. 10 strikes swinging. Fastball (5th), 2 Cutters (1st, 6th), 2 Curveballs (1st, 3rd), 5 on Changeups (2 in 2nd, 3rd, 2 in 4th).

  • Bannister is a 28 year old righty who stands 6-2, 215. He has a medium frame that is maxed out. He came from an over the top release and worked quickly. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His cutter has good cut and he may call it a slider, but it's action is that of a cutter. His change has good fade from lefties and is a hard change. His curve is 12-6 with excellent depth that could be a strikeout pitch when he throws it in the high 70's, not in the 60's. He will throw changes to righties and that appears to be his out pitch. I think he is a # 4 starter.

1st: FB (87-89), Cut (87-89), CU (85-87), CB (77)

2nd: FB (91), Cut (87-89), CU (86-88), CB (62-78)

3rd: FB (91), Cut (86-90), CU (85-88), CB (65-77)

4th: FB (88-90), Cut (87-88), CU (85-88), CB (74-75)

5th: FB (90-91), Cut (86-88), CU (85-86), CB (71-78)

6th: FB (90-91), Cut (86-89), CU (86), CB (78)

7th: FB (90), Cut (87-88), CU (85-86), CB (77)

3) Justin Speier: 24 pitches. 1 strike swinging. Splitter (7th)

  • Speier came from a 3/4 release and showed a fastball with good run in on righties, a slider that moves like a cutter with okay bite that is pretty sharp and a split with above average dive that serves as his out pitch.

6th: FB (90), SL (87), Split (81)

7th: FB (91-92), SL (86-88), Split (82-83)

4) John Bale: 15 pitches. 1 strike swinging. Curveball (8th)

  • Bale came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with some run in on lefties, a 10-4 curve with solid depth that he will throw from a 3/4 release (and he will throw fastballs from this angle as well) and a change with good fade from righties with sink.

7th: FB (88-92), CB (72)

8th: FB (92), CB (71-73), CU (81)

5) Kevin Jepsen: 17 pitches. 2 strikes swinging. Fastball, Cutter

  • Jepsen came from an over the top release with a fastball with some run in on righties, a cutter with good cut and sink and a sharp 12-6 curve with average depth that can be a strikeout pitch. The cutter has been a difference maker pitch for him and is very impressive.

8th: FB (96-97), CB (84), Cut (90-91)

6) Roman Colon: 15 pitches. 2 strikes swinging. Fastball, Splitter

  • Colon came from an over the top release and shwoed a 2-7 slider with average bite, a fastball with a little run in on righties and a split that has a little dive.

8th: FB (96-98), SL (78-81), Split (86-88)

7) Jamey Wright: 11 pitches. 0 strikes swinging.

  • Wright came from an over the top release with a fastball with a little run in on righties with a little sink, a sharp 12-6 curve with average depth that can be a strikeout pitch and a cutter with some cut.

8th: FB (91-93), Cut (89), CB (77)

8) Joakim Soria: 13 pitches. 1 strike swinging. Fastball.

  • Soria came from an over the top release with a fastball with some run in on righties, a 12-6 curve with above average depth and a change with good fade from righties with sink.

8th: FB (92-94), CB (70), CU (86-88)

9) Ron Mahay: 22 pitches. 3 strikes swinging. 2 Fastballs, Changeup.

  • Mahay came from an over the top release with a change with some fade from righties with sink, a fastball with some run in on lefties and a 11-5 slider with above average bite.

9th: FB (90-92), CU (84-85), SL (80-82)

10) Brian Fuentes: 19 pitches. 0 strikes swinging.

  • Fuentes came from a 3/4 release with a fastball with some late run in on lefties and a loopy 9-4 slider with good bite.

9th: FB (90-92), SL (75-77)

Random Royals Bullpen Observation: This pen is very similar to those of the White Sox from 3 or 4 years ago. Most of these pitchers have major league stuff and Dayton is trusting his major league pitching coach to try and teach these guys control. Eventually, Kenny Williams pulled the plug and began to bring in solid arms with some control. I think they will be making a similar adjustment in the coming years.