Wait, A Strong Conclusion?

Well folks, there is a very interesting conclusion that has popped up (I am going through and re calculating all my conclusion tables to account for the injuries and this is the interesting one:

+/- Days of Rest yielded a 74 % regression rate for those pitchers that saw their scores go up 200 or more, which was followed by a 62 % regression rate for those between 100 and 199.

This is very interesting and that is a fairly sizable gap. Who are the pitchers prior to this season that qualified under this criteria? Check it out:

Doug Brocail: 5.87 ERA this season in 9 games, spent time on DL
Will Ohman: 60 day DL, 5.84 ERA this season.
Joe Smith: Spent time on DL, missing almost 2 months.

Looks like this high end of this criteria will continue to show regression even after this season. Now the question is, what did those pitchers that didn't regress in that time frame have to prevent it? Hopefully assigning a repetoire to each pitcher will help shine even more light on these criteria and that is the next step for me.

Chart Observations: SD @ MIL

1) Clayton Richard: 90 pitches. 1 strike swinging. Fastball (4th)

• Richard came from a high 3/4 release and showed a 2-seam fastball with a little run in on lefties with a little sink, a change with good sink and good fade from righties that he will throw to lefties, a straight 4-seam fastball he liked to throw high with 2 strikes, a 10-4 slider with good bite and a cutter with some cut.

1st: FB (90-95), CU (85)

2nd: FB (91-94), CU (85)

3rd: FB (90-96), CU (84-85), SL (83)

4th: FB (89-95), CU (84-85), SL (80-85), Cut (89)

5th: FB (89-94), CU (81-85), SL (79-80)

6th: FB (89-91), CU (84), SL (76)

2) Mike Burns: 102 pitches. 6 strikes swinging. 2 Fastballs (2nd, 6th), 2 Sliders (3rd, 6th), Curveball (2nd), Changeup (3rd)

• Burns came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with a little run in on righties, a 12-6 curve with above average depth, a 2-7 slider with solid bite and a change with some fade from lefties with a little sink.

1st: FB (87-90), SL (79-81), CB (71)

2nd: FB (86-88), SL (79), CB (70), CU (81-82)

3rd: FB (87-89), CB (69-71)

4th: FB (86-89), SL (78-80), CB (69-70)

5th: FB (85-89), SL (80-81), CB (71), CU (78-82)

6th: FB (86-90), SL (78-80), CB (69-70)

3) Greg Burke: 11 pitches. 0 strikes swinging.

• Burke came from an over the top release and showed a 2-7 slider with below average bite and a fastball with some run in on righties and sink.

6th: FB (91-94), SL (82-86)

4) Mitch Stetter: 12 pitches. 0 strikes swinging.

• Stetter came from a sidearm release and showed a sweeping 9-4 slider with solid bite and a fastball with some run in on lefties.

6th: FB (84), SL (78-79)

7th: FB (84-87), SL (79)

5) Luke Gregerson: 12 pitches. 1 strike swinging. Slider.

• Gregerson came from a sidearm release and showed a fastball with good run in on righties with good sink, a 3-8 slider with above average bite and a change with some fade from lefties with good sink.

7th: FB (91-93), SL (82-84), CU (81)

6) Mark DiFelice: 13 pitches. 3 strikes swinging. 3 Cutters.

• DiFelice came from a 3/4 release and showed a cutter with good cut and a 12-6 curve with below average depth.

7th: Cut (81-83), CB (76)

7) Claudio Vargas: 18 pitches. 1 strike swinging. Slider.

• Vargas came from a high 3/4 release and showed a fastball with some run in on righties and a 2-7 slider with above average bite.

8th: FB (89-92), SL (79-82)

8) Mike Adams: 10 pitches. 2 strikes swinging. Fastball, Changeup.

• Adams came from an over the top release and showed a fastball with a little run in on righties, a cutter with some cut and a change with plus fade from righties with above average sink.

8th: FB (93-95), Cut (90), CU (84)

9) Heath Bell: 14 pitches. 1 strike swinging. Curveball.

• Bell came from an over the top release and showed a 4-seam fastball with some natural run in on righties and some sink and a sharp 1-7 curve with above average depth that is a strikeout pitch.

9th: FB (91-95), CB (79-82)

Playoff Game cancelled, so I am going to be working on the relief pitcher study since I already traded my game away.