Stats Vs. Scouts: 2006

Everyone likes to say there is some sort of divide between stats and scouts, but they tend to work together (at least according to a GM) on establishing the true value of a player. For instance, if a player oozes tools, but never performs, then he isn't helpful. However, if a player oozes stats at Low A, there still needs to be a scout there to tell you if those tools will play in the majors.

Here is where I thought something would be interesting. Baseball America is widely believed to be a SCOUTING magazine while Baseball Prospectus is widely believed to be a SABERMETRIC publication. So, since I have every prospect handbook and started getting Baseball Prospectus's since 2006, lets compare their Top 50 lists! (I have zero life obviously, b/c I think this would be fun...)

Bottom line is that these rankings come down to this:

BP: Prospects done by Rany Jazayerli, Dayn Perry and BP (according to their '06 book)
BA: Taking Jim Callis' (widely regarded as Mel Kiper Jr. of baseball prospects) Top 50.

Let the fun begin! I will put the prospect in parenthesis of where he ranked in the BA Handbook next to the BP Prospect and vice versa, unless they are the exact same.

2006 Top 50's
BA 1: Delmon Young: OF
BP 1: Delmon Young: OF

BA 2: Brandon Wood: SS (# 6)
BP 2: Jeremy Hermida: OF (# 3)

BA 3: Jeremy Hermida: OF (# 2)
BP 3: Ryan Zimmerman: 3B (# 21)

BA 4: Stephen Drew: SS (# 19)
BP 4: Francisco Liriano: LHP (# 7)

BA 5: Alex Gordon: 3B (# 10)
BP 5: Howie Kendrick: 2B (# 18)

BA 6: Prince Fielder: 1B (# 9)
BP 6: Brandon Wood: SS (# 2)

BA 7: Francisco Liriano: LHP (# 4)
BP 7: Andy Marte: 3B (# 13)

BA 8: Lastings Milledge: OF (# 13)
BP 8: Chris Young : OF (# 24)

BA 9: Matt Cain: RHP (# 12)
BP 9: Prince Fielder: 1B (# 6)

BA 10: Chad Billingsley: RHP (# 24)
BP 10: Alex Gordon: 3B (# 5)

BA 11: Ian Stewart: 3B (# 16)
BP 11: Dustin Pedroia: 2B (UR)

BA 12: Conor Jackson: 1B (UR)
BP 12: Matt Cain: RHP (# 9)

BA 13: Andy Marte: 3B (# 7)
BP 13: Lastings Milledge: OF (# 8)

BA 14: Carlos Quentin: OF (# 27)
BP 14: Joel Guzman: SS (# 29)

BA 15: Justin Verlander: RHP
BP 15: Justin Verlander: RHP

BA 16: Jon Lester: LHP (UR)
BP 16: Ian Stewart: 3B (# 11)

BA 17: Andy LaRoche: 3B (# 22)
BP 17: Jeremy Sowers: LHP (UR)

BA 18: Howie Kendrick: 2B (# 5)
BP 18: Daric Barton: 1B (# 25)

BA 19: Billy Butler: OF (# 20)
BP 19: Stephen Drew: SS (# 4)

BA 20: Troy Tulowitzki: SS (UR)
BP 20: Billy Butler: OF (# 19)

BA 21: Ryan Zimmerman: 3B (# 3)
BP 21: Kenji Johjima: C (UR)

BA 22: Jonathan Papelbon: RHP (# 36)
BP 22: Andy LaRoche: 3B (# 17)

BA 23: Jarrod Saltalamacchia: C
BP 23: Jarrod Saltalamacchia: C

BA 24: Chris Young: OF (# 8)
BP 24: Chad Billingsley: RHP (# 10)

BA 25: Daric Barton: 1B (# 18)
BP 25: Anthony Reyes: RHP (# 42)

BA 26: Felix Pie: OF (# 29)
BP 26: Kendry Morales: 1B (# 47)

BA 27: Nick Markakis: OF (# 32)
BP 27: Carlos Quentin: OF (# 14)

BA 28: Carlos Gonzalez: OF (UR)
BP 28: Joel Zumaya: RHP (UR)

BA 29: Joel Guzman: SS (# 14)
BP 29: Felix Pie: OF (# 26)

BA 30: Hanley Ramirez: SS (UR)
BP 30: Jeff Clement: C (# 35)

BA 31: Jason Kubel: OF (UR)
BP 31: Brian Anderson: OF (UR)

BA 32: Cameron Maybin: OF (UR)
BP 32: Nick Markakis: OF (# 27)

BA 33: Anibal Sanchez: RHP (UR)
BP 33: Yusmeiro Petit: RHP (UR)

BA 34: Scott Olsen: LHP (UR)
BP 34: Justin Huber: 1B (UR)

BA 35: Jeff Clement: C (# 30)
BP 35: Jered Weaver: RHP (# 46)

BA 36: Ryan Braun: 3B (# 37)
BP 36: Jonathan Papelbon: RHP (# 22)

BA 37: Russell Martin: C (UR)
BP 37: Ryan Braun (# 36)

BA 38: Scott Elbert: LHP (UR)
BP 38: Paul Maholm: LHP (UR)

BA 39: Dustin McGowan: RHP (UR)
BP 39: Ian Kinsler: 2B (UR)

BA 40: Homer Bailey: RHP (UR)
BP 40: Phil Hughes: RHP (# 44)

BA 41: Adam Miller: RHP (UR)
BP 41: Justin Upton: SS (Hadn't signed, so not included on BA's list)

BA 42: Anthony Reyes: RHP (# 25)
BP 42: Mike Jacobs: 1B (UR)

BA 43: Bobby Jenks: RHP (UR)
BP 43: Fernando Cabrera: RHP (UR)

BA 44: Phillip Hughes: RHP (# 40)
BP 44: Adam Jones: (UR)

BA 45: Erick Aybar: SS (# 50)
BP 45: Craig Hansen: RHP (UR)

BA 46: Jered Weaver: RHP (# 35)
BP 46: Chris Snelling: OF (UR)

BA 47: Kendry Morales: 1B (# 26)
BP 47: Rich Hill: LHP (UR)

BA 48: Jason Hirsh: RHP (UR)
BP 48: Josh Willingham: OF (UR)

BA 49: Troy Patton: LHP (UR)
BP 49: Josh Barfield: 2B (UR)

BA 50: Cole Hamels: LHP (UR)
BP 50: Erick Aybar: SS (# 45)

BA Prospects Not Ranked By BP:
# 12 Conor Jackson (Honorable Mention)
# 16 Jon Lester (Honorable Mention)
# 20 Troy Tulowitzki
# 28 Carlos Gonzalez (Honorable Mention)
# 30 Hanley Ramirez (Honorable Mention)
# 31 Jason Kubel
# 32 Cameron Maybin
# 33 Anibal Sanchez
# 34 Scott Olsen
# 37 Russell Martin (Honorable Mention)
# 38 Scott Elbert
# 39 Dustin McGowan
# 40 Homer Bailey
# 41 Adam Miller
# 43 Bobby Jenks
# 48 Jason Hirsh
# 49 Troy Patton
# 50 Cole Hamels (Honorable Mention)

BP Prospects Not Ranked By BA:
# 11 Dustin Pedroia
# 17 Jeremy Sowers
# 21 Kenji Johjima
# 28 Joel Zumaya
# 31 Brian Anderson
# 33 Yusmeiro Petit
# 34 Justin Huber
# 38 Paul Maholm
# 39 Ian Kinsler
# 42 Mike Jacobs
# 43 Fernando Cabrera
# 44 Adam Jones
# 45 Craig Hansen
# 46 Chris Snelling
# 47 Rich Hill
# 48 Josh Willingham
# 49 Josh Barfield

Conclusion: In looking at groups that both missed, there are big similarities. In the BP group that BA missed includes command and control pitchers Sowers, Petit, Maholm and Hill, with only Petit being a righty. Also, the BP group helped to account for some of BA's absence of undersized middle infielders, such as Pedroia, Kinsler and Barfield. Missing from the BP list when matched with the BA list were (no surprise) high upside, unfinished products in '06 including H.Ramirez, Gonzalez, Maybin and high velocity arms such as Bailey, Lester, Elbert and Jenks.

Overall, this is probably what you would expect. However, in just looking at the names of the respective Top 50, it appears Jim Callis did a better job then BP. Both had 5 guys in their top 31 that the other didn't list, and I think Callis's selections were better. Here they are in a good format for you:

BA: Conor Jackson, Jon Lester, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez & Hanley Ramirez
BP: Dustin Pedroia, Jeremy Sowers, Kenji Johjima, Joel Zumaya & Brian Anderson

Overall, there were also some surprises. BA, who tends to lean towards tools, had Alex Gordon listed higher then BP, though that may have been due to a lack of track record that BP likes to have. Billy Butler was another surprise that BA had higher (though by just 1 spot). BP ranked guys like Howie Kendrick (who I get into arguments with guys who lean toward sabermetrics alot about his upside), Andy Marte and Chris Young all higher then BA.

What are your thoughts on both breaking down these 2006 lists and in the player evaluation methods as a whole?

Life On The Farm: Tampa Bay Rays (# 4)

Still stacked to help for a possible run next year?

Graduated To Majors: Fernando Perez (CF, # 14), Reid Brignac (SS, # 4), Wade Davis (SP, # 3), Jeff Niemann (SP, # 10), David Price (SP, # 1).

The Rest Of The Top 10 (with quick commentary)
Hitters: AVG-OBP-SLG, AB, HR-RBI, BB-K, SB-CS
Pitchers: G-GS, W-L, ERA, IP-H-HR-BB-K

2 - Tim Beckham: SS
Lo A: .275-.328-.389, 491, 5-63, 34-116, 13-10
Quick Take: Solid full season debut for 2008 # 1 overall pick.

5 - Desmond Jennings: CF
AA: .316-.395-.486, 383, 8-45, 48-52, 37-5
AAA: .325-.419-.491, 114, 3-17, 19-15, 15-2
Quick Take: Huge season and shows he might be major league ready at spring trianing.

6 - Matt Moore: LHP
Lo A: 26-26, 8-5, 3.15, 123-86-6-70-176
Quick Take: An insane strikeout rate with some control issues.

7 - Nick Barnese: RHP
Lo A: 15-15, 6-5, 2.53, 74.2-56-3-25-62
Quick Take: Solid full season debut was held off early in the year due to a slight shoulder issue.

8 - Jeremy Hellickson: RHP
AA: 11-11, 3-1, 2.38, 56.2-41-4-14-62
AAA: 9-9, 6-1, 2.51, 57.1-31-4-15-70
Quick Take: Righty looks ready to contend for a rotation spot in spring training.

9 - Jake McGee: LHP
R: 5-5, 0-2, 3.52, 7.2-5-0-3-14
Hi A: 11-11, 0-2, 6.45, 22.1-26-2-9-26
Quick Take: Lefty making the return from Tommy John surgery returned with his good strikeout rate.

AAA: Durham Bulls (IL)
Breakout Hitter: Rhyne Hughes (UR): .313-.361-.533, 214, 7-26, 12-69, 0-0
Disappointing Hitter: Chris Nowak (UR): .228-.294-.346, 228, 4-23, 18-54, 2-1
Breakout Pitcher: Wade Davis (# 3): 28-28, 10-8, 3.40, 158.2-139-14-60-140
Disappointing Pitcher: James Houser (UR): 18-15, 4-5, 5.16, 82-83-10-50-44
Quick Take: Hughes takes his act to Baltimore after being the PTBNL in the Gregg Zaun trade while Wade Davis looks ready to establish himself as a solid starter in the majors next season. Nowak struggled in his 1st exposure at AAA while Houser's performance got him released.

AA: Montgomery Biscuits (SL)
Breakout Hitter: Desmond Jennings (# 5): Line above.
Disappointing Hitter: Matt Spring (UR): .196-.272-.362, 224, 8-33, 22-74, 0-0
Breakout Pitcher: Jeremy Hellickson (# 8): Line above.
Disappointing Pitcher: Ryan Morse (UL): 20-14, 4-6, 4.84, 74.1-80-7-38-40
Quick Take: Jennings and Hellickson look ready to compete for jobs in spring training. Spring had some struggles, but if he can just turn the batting average up, the other tools appear to be there. Morse was decent for a team that saw a lot of good performances from their pitchers.

Hi A: Charlotte Stone Crabs (FSL)
Breakout Hitter: Cody Cipriano (UL): .297-.402-.456, 239, 5-35, 39-60, 8-6
Disappointing Hitter: Omar Luna (UL): .185-.219-.216, 259, 0-19, 11-32, 5-3
Breakout Pitcher: David Newmann (UL): 24-24. 9-6, 3.44, 131-108-6-46-128
Disappointing Pitcher: Jesse Darcy (UR): 22-16, 3-9, 5.24, 103-128-14-21-45
Quick Take: Cipriano came back healthy and showed solid offensive stats and earned a midseason promotion to AA. Newmann also returned healthy and showed good stuff from the left side. Luna struggled badly and now will likely begin the conversion to utility infielder while Darcy did not build on his season last year.

Lo A: Bowling Green Hot Rods (SAL)
Breakout Hitter: Kyeon Kang (# 27): .307-.390-.491, 316, 5-42, 40-74, 10-5
Disappointing Hitter: Mike McCormick (# 26): .165-.272-.252, 218, 4-13, 29-76, 1-0
Breakout Pitcher: Matt Moore (# 6): Line above.
Disappointing Pitcher: Shane Dyer (UR): 25-16, 1-10, 5.06, 101.1-121-3-32-76
Quick Take: Kang had a strong full-season debut and earned a chance to play in the Futures Game. Moore was tremendous and shows a huge upside as a lefty starter. McCormick didn't hit again as he was repeating Low A and has likely lost his prospect status. Dyer had some struggles in his full-season debut.

TK's Early 2010 Top 10 Prospects:
1) Desmond Jennings: CF
The next Carl Crawford?
2) Matt Moore: LHP
176 K's against 123 innings is absolutely incredible, especially from a lefty starter.
3) Tim Beckham: SS
1st overall pick will likely move up to High A.
4) Jeremy Hellickson: RHP
Will contend to start next year next to Wade Davis in the Rays rotation.
5) Kyle Lobstein: LHP
Starter put up good numbers at SS (14-14, 3-5, 2.58, 73.1-55-4-23-74) and will make his full season debut next year.
6) Nick Barnese: RHP
May repeat Low A next year, but likely will start at High A for his first exposure at playing a true full season.
7) Jake McGee: LHP
Lefty will enter 2nd year back from TJS, usually the year they return with command.
8) Alex Colome: RHP
Righty went 7-4, 1.66 in 15 starts at SS, striking out 94 against 32 walks in 76 innings. Will likely start next yeat at Low A.
9) Alex Cobb: RHP
Righty went 8-5, 3.03 in 24 games, 23 starts at High A, striking out 107 against 31 walks in 124 and 2/3 innings and will look to pass AA test next year.
10) David Newmann: LHP
Lefty flew under the radar, but pro debut was made last year at High A after being a 2nd round pick in 2007 and rehabbing from TJS.

Dropped From Top 10: None.

Final Overview: Man, this system is still really loaded and still a top 5 system. They have an absolute wealth of starting pitching from both the left and right sides, with it stationed at seemingly every level of the system. Failed to sign their 1st round pick, which was another toolsy OF, but this system could withhold that for 1 year at least. Desperately in need of some bats, they have the pitching depth to make some sort of deal to bring in good hitting prospects for good pitching prospects, similar to that of the Delmon Young-Matt Garza deal, only they would be the team bringing in a hitting prospect. Stacked still.