Everyone likes to say there is some sort of divide between stats and scouts, but they tend to work together (at least according to a GM) on establishing the true value of a player. For instance, if a player oozes tools, but never performs, then he isn't helpful. However, if a player oozes stats at Low A, there still needs to be a scout there to tell you if those tools will play in the majors.
Here is where I thought something would be interesting. Baseball America is widely believed to be a SCOUTING magazine while Baseball Prospectus is widely believed to be a SABERMETRIC publication. So, since I have every prospect handbook and started getting Baseball Prospectus's since 2006, lets compare their Top 50 lists! (I have zero life obviously, b/c I think this would be fun...)
Bottom line is that these rankings come down to this:
BP: Prospects done by Rany Jazayerli, Dayn Perry and BP (according to their '06 book)
BA: Taking Jim Callis' (widely regarded as Mel Kiper Jr. of baseball prospects) Top 50.
Let the fun begin! I will put the prospect in parenthesis of where he ranked in the BA Handbook next to the BP Prospect and vice versa, unless they are the exact same.
2006 Top 50's
BA 1: Delmon Young: OF
BP 1: Delmon Young: OF
BA 2: Brandon Wood: SS (# 6)
BP 2: Jeremy Hermida: OF (# 3)
BA 3: Jeremy Hermida: OF (# 2)
BP 3: Ryan Zimmerman: 3B (# 21)
BA 4: Stephen Drew: SS (# 19)
BP 4: Francisco Liriano: LHP (# 7)
BA 5: Alex Gordon: 3B (# 10)
BP 5: Howie Kendrick: 2B (# 18)
BA 6: Prince Fielder: 1B (# 9)
BP 6: Brandon Wood: SS (# 2)
BA 7: Francisco Liriano: LHP (# 4)
BP 7: Andy Marte: 3B (# 13)
BA 8: Lastings Milledge: OF (# 13)
BP 8: Chris Young : OF (# 24)
BA 9: Matt Cain: RHP (# 12)
BP 9: Prince Fielder: 1B (# 6)
BA 10: Chad Billingsley: RHP (# 24)
BP 10: Alex Gordon: 3B (# 5)
BA 11: Ian Stewart: 3B (# 16)
BP 11: Dustin Pedroia: 2B (UR)
BA 12: Conor Jackson: 1B (UR)
BP 12: Matt Cain: RHP (# 9)
BA 13: Andy Marte: 3B (# 7)
BP 13: Lastings Milledge: OF (# 8)
BA 14: Carlos Quentin: OF (# 27)
BP 14: Joel Guzman: SS (# 29)
BA 15: Justin Verlander: RHP
BP 15: Justin Verlander: RHP
BA 16: Jon Lester: LHP (UR)
BP 16: Ian Stewart: 3B (# 11)
BA 17: Andy LaRoche: 3B (# 22)
BP 17: Jeremy Sowers: LHP (UR)
BA 18: Howie Kendrick: 2B (# 5)
BP 18: Daric Barton: 1B (# 25)
BA 19: Billy Butler: OF (# 20)
BP 19: Stephen Drew: SS (# 4)
BA 20: Troy Tulowitzki: SS (UR)
BP 20: Billy Butler: OF (# 19)
BA 21: Ryan Zimmerman: 3B (# 3)
BP 21: Kenji Johjima: C (UR)
BA 22: Jonathan Papelbon: RHP (# 36)
BP 22: Andy LaRoche: 3B (# 17)
BA 23: Jarrod Saltalamacchia: C
BP 23: Jarrod Saltalamacchia: C
BA 24: Chris Young: OF (# 8)
BP 24: Chad Billingsley: RHP (# 10)
BA 25: Daric Barton: 1B (# 18)
BP 25: Anthony Reyes: RHP (# 42)
BA 26: Felix Pie: OF (# 29)
BP 26: Kendry Morales: 1B (# 47)
BA 27: Nick Markakis: OF (# 32)
BP 27: Carlos Quentin: OF (# 14)
BA 28: Carlos Gonzalez: OF (UR)
BP 28: Joel Zumaya: RHP (UR)
BA 29: Joel Guzman: SS (# 14)
BP 29: Felix Pie: OF (# 26)
BA 30: Hanley Ramirez: SS (UR)
BP 30: Jeff Clement: C (# 35)
BA 31: Jason Kubel: OF (UR)
BP 31: Brian Anderson: OF (UR)
BA 32: Cameron Maybin: OF (UR)
BP 32: Nick Markakis: OF (# 27)
BA 33: Anibal Sanchez: RHP (UR)
BP 33: Yusmeiro Petit: RHP (UR)
BA 34: Scott Olsen: LHP (UR)
BP 34: Justin Huber: 1B (UR)
BA 35: Jeff Clement: C (# 30)
BP 35: Jered Weaver: RHP (# 46)
BA 36: Ryan Braun: 3B (# 37)
BP 36: Jonathan Papelbon: RHP (# 22)
BA 37: Russell Martin: C (UR)
BP 37: Ryan Braun (# 36)
BA 38: Scott Elbert: LHP (UR)
BP 38: Paul Maholm: LHP (UR)
BA 39: Dustin McGowan: RHP (UR)
BP 39: Ian Kinsler: 2B (UR)
BA 40: Homer Bailey: RHP (UR)
BP 40: Phil Hughes: RHP (# 44)
BA 41: Adam Miller: RHP (UR)
BP 41: Justin Upton: SS (Hadn't signed, so not included on BA's list)
BA 42: Anthony Reyes: RHP (# 25)
BP 42: Mike Jacobs: 1B (UR)
BA 43: Bobby Jenks: RHP (UR)
BP 43: Fernando Cabrera: RHP (UR)
BA 44: Phillip Hughes: RHP (# 40)
BP 44: Adam Jones: (UR)
BA 45: Erick Aybar: SS (# 50)
BP 45: Craig Hansen: RHP (UR)
BA 46: Jered Weaver: RHP (# 35)
BP 46: Chris Snelling: OF (UR)
BA 47: Kendry Morales: 1B (# 26)
BP 47: Rich Hill: LHP (UR)
BA 48: Jason Hirsh: RHP (UR)
BP 48: Josh Willingham: OF (UR)
BA 49: Troy Patton: LHP (UR)
BP 49: Josh Barfield: 2B (UR)
BA 50: Cole Hamels: LHP (UR)
BP 50: Erick Aybar: SS (# 45)
BA Prospects Not Ranked By BP:
# 12 Conor Jackson (Honorable Mention)
# 16 Jon Lester (Honorable Mention)
# 20 Troy Tulowitzki
# 28 Carlos Gonzalez (Honorable Mention)
# 30 Hanley Ramirez (Honorable Mention)
# 31 Jason Kubel
# 32 Cameron Maybin
# 33 Anibal Sanchez
# 34 Scott Olsen
# 37 Russell Martin (Honorable Mention)
# 38 Scott Elbert
# 39 Dustin McGowan
# 40 Homer Bailey
# 41 Adam Miller
# 43 Bobby Jenks
# 48 Jason Hirsh
# 49 Troy Patton
# 50 Cole Hamels (Honorable Mention)
BP Prospects Not Ranked By BA:
# 11 Dustin Pedroia
# 17 Jeremy Sowers
# 21 Kenji Johjima
# 28 Joel Zumaya
# 31 Brian Anderson
# 33 Yusmeiro Petit
# 34 Justin Huber
# 38 Paul Maholm
# 39 Ian Kinsler
# 42 Mike Jacobs
# 43 Fernando Cabrera
# 44 Adam Jones
# 45 Craig Hansen
# 46 Chris Snelling
# 47 Rich Hill
# 48 Josh Willingham
# 49 Josh Barfield
Conclusion: In looking at groups that both missed, there are big similarities. In the BP group that BA missed includes command and control pitchers Sowers, Petit, Maholm and Hill, with only Petit being a righty. Also, the BP group helped to account for some of BA's absence of undersized middle infielders, such as Pedroia, Kinsler and Barfield. Missing from the BP list when matched with the BA list were (no surprise) high upside, unfinished products in '06 including H.Ramirez, Gonzalez, Maybin and high velocity arms such as Bailey, Lester, Elbert and Jenks.
Overall, this is probably what you would expect. However, in just looking at the names of the respective Top 50, it appears Jim Callis did a better job then BP. Both had 5 guys in their top 31 that the other didn't list, and I think Callis's selections were better. Here they are in a good format for you:
BA: Conor Jackson, Jon Lester, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez & Hanley Ramirez
BP: Dustin Pedroia, Jeremy Sowers, Kenji Johjima, Joel Zumaya & Brian Anderson
Overall, there were also some surprises. BA, who tends to lean towards tools, had Alex Gordon listed higher then BP, though that may have been due to a lack of track record that BP likes to have. Billy Butler was another surprise that BA had higher (though by just 1 spot). BP ranked guys like Howie Kendrick (who I get into arguments with guys who lean toward sabermetrics alot about his upside), Andy Marte and Chris Young all higher then BA.
What are your thoughts on both breaking down these 2006 lists and in the player evaluation methods as a whole?
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9 years ago
Definitely agree that they're fairly similar. I do wonder about your criteria for deciding whose was better, though. Looking at the top 31 is one way, but what about guys ranked far apart?
ReplyDeleteZimmerman was a pretty big discrepancy as well, and BP was right in having him very high. Stephen Drew is ranked much higher by BA, and he really hasn't cemented himself as a top SS to this point. Just a couple examples.
I personally don't see a clear "winner." What's interesting is you can see the philosophies of scouts vs. stats towards the end of the list, prospects #35-50 or so. Before that, I think they are quite similar.
True, I didn't mean to declare a true winner.
ReplyDeleteIt was interesting though in looking at the top 31 and seeing 5 that weren't listed on both lists. I think that if you had to pick between those 2 sets of 5, most would take the BA list of players, if not all.