Relief Pitcher Check (May 28th)

For those of you unaware, I am author of a long study evaluating the regression of relief pitchers (and for those of you that do know, it is growing, I am currenly adding specific pitch type (which should be prepped for comparisons in the next couple of days) and a completely redone disabled list database). Anyways, I identified my top 5 candidates for regression according to the evals and here they are with a quick stat check and my reasoning:

• Luis Ayala: Posted 2nd highest Days of Rest score in his career in 2008 and has regressed each time he has posted a qualifying Days of Rest score.

Previous Check: 8 Appearances, 1-1, 6.48 ERA. 13 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 8.1 IP

Current: 18 Appearances, 1-1, 4.79. 20.2 IP, 28 H, 7 BB, 13 K

2008: 81 Appearances, 2-10, 5.71. 75.2 IP, 86 H, 24 BB, 50 K

• Dennys Reyes: The last time he was worked as hard as he was in 2008 was 2006. In 2007, he regressed greatly.

Previous Check: 9 Appearances, 0-1, 3.18 ERA. 3 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 5.2 IP

Current: 23 Appearances, 0-1, 3.21. 14 IP, 11 H, 5 BB, 15 K

2008: 75 Appearances, 3-0, 2.33. 46.1 IP, 40 H, 15 BB, 39 K

• Brad Lidge: Qualified under 4 criteria in 2008, as well as the 3-season Total IP for 2006-2008. The last time he qualified under these criteria (2006), he suffered regression the next year.

Previous Check: 8 Appearances, 0-1, 8.22 ERA. 10 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 7.2 IP

Current: 22 Appearances, 0-2, 8.85. 20.1 IP, 29 H, 13 BB, 22 K

2008: 72 Appearances, 2-0, 1.95. 69.1 IP, 50 H, 35 BB, 92 K

• Pedro Feliciano: Qualified under the Days or Rest criteria in 2007 and showed regression in 2008. For 2008, he qualified under 4 criteria, including an even greater number in the Days of Rest evaluator.

Previous Check: 9 Appearances, 0-1, 4.76 ERA. 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 5.2 IP

Current: 25 Appearances, 1-1, 2.41. 18.2 IP, 15 H, 3 BB, 19 K

2008: 86 Appearances, 3-4, 4.05. 53.1 IP, 57 H, 26 BB, 50 K

• John Grabow: Qualified for the +/- Pitches category in 2006 and regressed in 2007. In 2008, he has qualified for the +/- Pitches in addition to the +/- Inning category.

Previous Check: 7 Appearances, 1-0, 0.00 ERA. 7 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 7.1 IP

Current: 22 Appearances, 3-0, 4.71. 21 IP, 26 H, 11 BB, 17 K

2008: 74 Appearances, 6-3, 2.84. 76 IP, 60 H, 37 BB, 62 K

Updates as actions warrant on these 5 pitchers. Next update (likely around All-Star Break) will let you know if the season ended then, if they would have regressed under the criteria. Stay tuned for that.

Extra Reports: 5/26: TOR @ BAL

• Ricky Romero is a 24 year old left hander who stands 6-0, 215. He has a medium frame that can add a little more muscle. He attacks hitters from a 3/4 release. His fastball is a straight 4-seam, though he will mix in a 2-seam that shows some fade also. His changeup has good sink, but very little fade and is an average pitch. His slider was a loopy 10-4 pitch that was also average. His curveball was a sweeping 10-4 pitch that looks just like his slider, but had more downward break to it. He has above average command of his average offerings. Romero is another that looks to be a # 4 starter, as he has plus velocity for a left handed starter, but doesn't have a real reliable 2nd pitch to get swings and misses. The worst possible division he could be in is the AL East and you have to wonder how a finesse left hander will hold up there. Brett Cecil has better stuff as a left hander for the Jays in my opinion.

Romero Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (89-93), SL (81-83), CU (84)

2nd: FB (88-93), CU (84-85)

3rd: FB (91-94), CB (76-80), SL (80-85), CU (86)

• Jason Berken is a 25 year old right hander who made his major league debut in this game. The right hander has a small (6-0, 175) frame that is maxed out. He throws from over the top. His changeup shows good and good sink and is a slightly above average pitch and is also his best off-speed offering. His fastball shows very little fade and is a straight 4-seam, though he will also mix in a 2-seam that has solid fade and good sink. His slider is a 2-7 pitch whose break can be inconsistent, one time braeking down with good depth and then being a flat hit me pitch the next. Blue Jays were squaring him up very well and hit everything hard. His curveball is a 12-6 pitch with decent bite. He profiles to me as a best case scenario being a swingman. He just doesn't have the consistent command of all his pitches to the corners to consistently get big league hitters out. He also doesn't have the one out pitch to make him a 1 inning reliever (though if his velocity jumps up 2 miles per hour moving to 1 inning spurts, he can be effective). Kind of a pitching tweener.

Berken Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (92-94), CU (83-85), SL (83-85)

2nd: FB (91-94), CU (82-83), SL (80-83)

3rd: FB (91-93), CU (82-83), SL (84), CB (79)

Extra Reports: 5/24: BAL @ WAS

• Brad Bergesen is a 23 year old who stands 6-3, 215. The righthander has a medium frame that can add a little more muscle. He attacks hitters from a 3/4 release that is almost low 3/4. His fastball has good sink and a little fade and it looks like he can add and subtract movement from it when he wants. His changeup moves just like his fastball and has great fade and a little sink. His slider is a 3-7 pitch that has good bite, but is just average. He is a groundball machine who showed an ability to pound the zone, but he was in the middle of the plate a little too often. Bergesen does not profile well as a starter to me, being at best, a # 5. However, I think he could be a very useful ROOGY in the mold of a Chad Bradford, running an average fastball into the hands of right handers and getting them to hit groundballs. He could probably spot start as well and not hurt you.

Bergesen Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (87-91), CU (79-82), SL (81)

2nd: FB (85-89), SL (80-83)

3rd: FB (86-88), SL (79-82), CU (81)

• Shairon Martis was another pitcher who disappointed me. The 6-1, 225 pound right hander has a medium frame that is maxed out. The 21 year old attacked hitters from a 3/4 release. His fastball is a 4-seam that flashes a little fade, but is fairly straight. His changeup has good fade and sink. His slider shows good late bite and is a sharp, 2-7 pitch. He has slightly above average command of all his pitches, but he can also hit spurts where he can't hit a spot. He falls behind hitters in spurts after showing good command the previous innings. He throws his change nearly as much as his fastball. He struggled to command the change and left it high and off the armside corner. Martis profiles as a # 4 or # 5 starter and appears to be a solid innings eater. I thought he possibly could have been a # 3 based off scouting reports I had read, but I don't see it.

Martis Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (89-91), CU (84-85)

2nd: FB (89-92), SL (82-84), CU (88)

3rd: FB (89-91), SL (78-83), CU (82-84)

Extra Reports: 5/4: LAA @ OAK

• Joe Saunders is a 28 year old left hander who stands 6-3, 210. His medium to big frame appears to be maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, the left hander featured a straight 4-seam fastball, a changeup with good fade and sink and a curveball with some bite and is on the same plane as his fastball, causing a lot of check swings and allowing it to play up. His fastball is average, while both his off-speed pitches are above average offerings. He takes advantage of the Angels speed and pitches to contact, rarely walking or striking out hitters. A solid # 4 starter for another couple of years, but these types of lefties tend to have a very small margin for error and as soon as his fastball velocity dips, he is screwed.

Saunders Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (88-92), CU (83), CB (75)

2nd: FB (87-92), CU (82), CB (77)

• I only watched 2 innings of this game because I was unimpressed with Brett Anderson. A 21 year old lefty, he stands 6-4, 215 and his big frame can add a little more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a slurvy slider, a straight 4-seam fastball, a 11-5 curve and a change. His slider was a 11-4 offering. His curveball was a big breaking pitch that had a lot of drop, but can not serve as a strikeout pitch. His changeup has some fade, but is just an average offering. He has just average command (like a Japanese pitcher, his ability to hit spots may have been overhyped) and he has a tendency to leave pitches up in the zone. Everything the Angels hit, they hit hard. You can't give up on a 21 year old pitching in the majors, but I just don't know what upside is left to him. I can't really see him sitting consistently at 90 as I don't know think there is that much more muscle to be added. He has an average fastball, average slider, average curve and average change. Back of the rotation starter right now and I will project him to remain a # 4 or # 5. It is very hard for me to say that a 21 year old in his first taste of the bigs only projects as a # 4 or # 5, but he had that much struggles in this outing.

Anderson Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (87-91), CB (76), SL (82-84)

2nd: FB (88-92), SL (82-84), CU (82-85)

• Times to 1st

Maicer Izturis: 4.3 (RH)

Howie Kendrick: 4.4

Extra Reports: 5/23: TB @ FLA

• Jeff Niemann is a 6-9, 260 pound behemoth at the age of 26. The right hander hsa a big frame that looks to be maxed out. He kicks his front foot out in his delivery and really jumps at the hitters. He has a high 3/4 release and has some cocking action in his arm. His curveball is a big breaking 12-6 pitch with good bite, but is more of a get ahead pitch then an out pitch. His deuce does go from the letters to the dirt, so he can probably get some strikeouts with it. His fastball was a 4-seam that flashes fade. His slider is just a harder curve that has less break, but is sharper and was a 2-7 type offering. His slider can break, or it can just hang there. His fastball command can be inconsistent and he went through innings where he left all his pitches up around the letters. His shoulder will fly open on occasion. His changeup showed a little fade, but was a below average offering. He is a little slow to the plate, clocking at 1.3 and 1.2 on stolen bases on fastballs. Niemann profiles best as a # 4 starter, as there is no projection left and what you see with him is what you get. The only improvement he could make are being more consistent with his command and trying to refine his slider and change. But, a solid # 4 starter as he is now.
  

Niemann Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (91-94), CB (74-75)

2nd: FB (91-94), CB (74), SL (80-84)

3rd: FB (88-94), CB (75), SL (82)

4th: FB (91-94), CB (75-77), SL (80-82)

5th: FB (89-93), CB (74-76), SL (78-79), CU (82)

6th: FB (90-93), SL (84-85)

• Sean West is a 22 year old who is another behemoth on the mound, standing 6-8, 200. The left hander has a big frame that can add a lot more muscle, especially to his lower half. From a high 3/4 release, he is able to generate very easy velocity. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His wind-up looks fairly clean and is a good drop and drive delivery, but he does look to land hard on his front leg and has some whipping-like arm action. He gets his entire frame into his mechanics, allowing him to max out his velocity. His softer slider is a loopy 10-4 offering that is more of a slurve. His hard slider is a 11-4 breaker that is fairly sharp and gets good bite and depth. His changeup is a straight change that doesn't move much, but it looks like a fastball out of his hand and he liked to use it in fastball counts and get hitters out on their front legs. He will work his fastball inside and outside on hitters. His slider was anywhere from fringe average to above average. He has a tendency to not finish his slider, causing it to hang up in the zone. He prefers to backdoor sliders then throw the hard inside slider to righties. His command of all his pitches is inconsistent as a whole, but looks to be average right now. His command with his fastball gets into trouble as he occassionally will try to guide it into the strike zone, causing it to go off the plate to his armside. His command started to go away in the 4th. West looks to be a solid # 4 starter right now and he, unlike Niemann, has some projection left. West can add some more muscle and it isn't out of the realm of possibility for him to sit at 92-94 for an entire game. West's slider needs to be refined and his command needs to improve, but he has a ceiling of a # 2 starter (with a more likely ceiling being a slightly above average # 3).

West Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (92-95), SL (81-86)

2nd: FB (92-93), CU (85), SL (81-83)

3rd: FB (90-92), SL (80-82)

4th: FB (89-91), CU (83), SL (79-82)

5th: FB (89-92), CU (83), SL (79-82)

• Burke Badenhop is a 25 year old reliever who stands 6-5, 220. The right hander has a big frame that appears to be maxed out. The right hander is a sinker balling reliever, featuring a fastball with above average fade and some sink. His slider is a 3-9 pitch that is putrid. This was the worst slider I have seen thus far this year. His changeup moves similar to his fastball with some fade. He was 1.1 to the plate on 2 stolen bases. Badenhop is a AAA reliever with little upside.

Badenhop Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (87-89), SL (78-80)

2nd: FB (86-89), SL (79-82), CU (81)

• Pop Times for Catchers on Stolen Bases:

Ronny Paulino: 1.9, 2.0

Michel Hernandez: 1.9, 1.8

• Times to 1st:

Emilio Bonifacio: 4.0 (LH)

Jeremy Hermida: 4.5 (LH)

Chris Coghlan: 4.2 (LH)

Michel Hernandez: 4.6

B.J. Upton: 4.5

Evan Longoria: 4.5

SD vs. ARI

• Jake Peavy is a 28 year old who is 6-1, 195. The right hander has a medium frame that can add a little more muscle. From a 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 89-93, a slider at 80-85, a curveball at 78-80, a change at 81-86 and a cutter at 84-86. His slider shows good late bite and flashes as a plus 2-7 pitch. His fastball shows above average fade and is a hard 2-seamer. His change shows decent fade and sink. His cutter has some cut, but not a whole lot. His curveball is a mini 12-6 that is fairly sharp. He has a high effort delivery and will also drop down and throw fastballs and sliders from sidearm. In my eyes, Jake Peavy is no longer a # 1. He has settled in as a very good # 2 starter and he isn't a good fit for bandboxes. Still a good pitcher, just not an ace.
• Billy Buckner attacked hitters from an over the top release with a fastball at 85-91 (sat at 88-90), a curveball at 75-82 and a change at 80-86. His fastball has above average fade and some sink. His change shows good fade and sink and looks to be an above average offering. His curveball is a 12-6 pitch that he struggled to get a feel for early (threw quite a few hangers), but was able to command it better later. He will throw any of his pitches to any batter in any count. Still looks like a back of the rotation starter to me.
• Clay Zavada attacked from a 3/4, almost low 3/4 release with a fastball at 87-89, a slider at 74 and a change at 77-81. His change is a straight change with some sink and was his main off-speed pitch tonight. His fastball has a little run, but not much. His slider is a frisbee 10-4 pitch. His command was somewhat spotty as well. Still think he could be a decent inning reliever, but the lack of velocity on his fastball will always be hurting him and he doesn't have a real go-to pitch against lefties.
• Leo Rosales is a 27 year old who stands 6-1, 205. The right hander has a medium frame that is maxed out. From an over the top release, he showed a fastball at 86-89, a slider at 80-85 and a change at 79-83. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His slider has good downward bite and is an 11-7 offering. His changeup shows good fade and movement and is slightly above average. Rosales can have very spotty command and this is what got him in trouble tonight. A middle reliever if he can be consistent with his command and a 4-A player if he doesn't, it really is that simple.
• Luke Gregerson attacked from a low 3/4 with a fastball at 89-91 and a slider at 80-81. His fastball is a 2-seam with good fade while his slider showed good downward movement.
• Drew Macias is a 26 year old outfielder who is 6-3, 200. The lefty hitter and thrower has a medium to big frame with room to add a little more muscle. He has a slightly open stance that is very similar to that of Chris Coghlan. He moves the bat in a circle a little bit as he waits for the pitcher to deliver. Macias looks like a 4th OF, as his swing doesn't have great power potential and he was unable to show any speed as he struck out in his only plate appearance.
• Esmerling Vasquez showed a fastball at 93-96, a slider at 79-80 and a changeup at 83-88 from a high 3/4 release. The fastball is a straight 4-seam. The slider is a 2-7 type pitch that showed good bite, but not great. The changeup is fairly straight with some sink and used it to battle the Padres lefty sticks. His slider is his most promising off-speed offering and he will need to further develop it to reach his potential. He showed average command and pitched to the middle of the plate a little too much.
• Edward Mujica showed a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 82-85 and a splitter at 87-88 from a high 3/4 release. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His split showed great bite and solid fade. His slider is a 2-7 pitch with decent bite. He needs another pitch to complement his fastball and his splitter looks like his best option. Both his off-speed pitches are inconsistent with break and command. He has above average command of his fastball.
• Jon Rauch showed a fastball at 88-93 (mostly at 91), a slider at 82, a curveball at 73-74 and a changeup at 86. His fastball has good sinking movement and some fade. His curveball is a 12-6 pitch that is a little loopy. His slider is a 1-7 offering that goes nearly straight downward. He also threw a straight change. Solid middle reliever, but not a set-up man, as he has no true out pitch.
• Greg Burke featured a fastball at 89-91 and a slider at 81-83. His fastball shows great late and a little sink and he has plus command with it, as he peppered the outside corner at the knees with it. His slider is a little loopy for my taste and is a 3-8 offering. He needs to get more consistent with his slider.
• Heath Bell is a 6-3, 250 pound behemoth for a closer. The 31 year old has a medium frame that is maxed out. From an over the top release, he threw 2 pitches: a fastball at 93 and a curveball at 83. The curveball was a 12-6 pitch that was very sharp. His fastball was a straight 4-seam.

Will only be doing reports on the starting pitchers tomorrow so I can get through all the games.