Relief Pitcher Repetoire Update

The 2nd Evaluation (SL) is done. This is one that will likely drastically change once injuries are accounted for, as this was a who's who of guys done for periods of times.

According to 3 True Outcomes:
>50 % = 60 %
> 45 % = 80 %
> 40 % = 72 %
> 35 % = 59.18 %

According to DICE:
> 50 % = 60 %
> 45 % = 60 %
> 40 % = 52 %
> 35 % = 51.02 %

Only 3 remaining (CB, CU, Split, not doing cutter due to lack of good information and split is still kind of up in the air) before I do the injury stuff. The reason I am waiting on the injury stuff is that I will be changing their 3 True Outcomes and DICE evals on the main datasheet itself and will want to check every player that has been in a data table before against the new (or old) outcome for confirmation that it is correct to ensure none of my data tables (over 200 pages in Word) are incorrect. Yes, giant pain in the butt.

Relief Pitcher Repetoire Update

The 1st evaluation (FB) has been completed.

In regards to the 3 True Outcomes (BB/9, K/9, HR/9), the pitchers regressed the following:
> 85 % FB's = 68.75 % Regression
80 - 84.99 % FB's = 63.64 % Regression

And in regards to DICE:
> 85 % FB's = 57.58 % Regression
80-84.99 % FB's = 56.82 % Regression

The qualifiers in 2008 who are using 2009 as their evaluation year:
> 85 % : Grant Balfour
80-84.99: Joe Beimel, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Jonathan Papelbon

The ideal is to utilize these numbers to assign a formula to the pitcher's repetoire and use this resulting number to evaluate if their repetoire is suitable to them succeeding the next season.

NOTE: These numbers do not include penalties to pitchers for injury issues and that will be addressed after the completion of the evaluation of each individual pitch.

WAS @ TB

• James Shields is a 6-4, 220 pound righty. The 27 year old has a big frame that can add a little more muscle. He comes from an over the top release. His fastball is a 4-seam with a little fade and sink. His change shows great sink and some fade and is a plus offering. His curveball is a 12-6 pitch with good bite and depth. His cutter has good cut and flashes sink. His change is his out pitch and he has great command of it. He has a very clean drop and drive delivery. Borderline ace.

1st: FB (88-92), CU (80-83), Cut (87), CB (75-76)

2nd: FB (89-92), CU (81-83), Cut (85-86), CB (78)

3rd: FB (89-91), CU (84), Cut (86-88), CB (74-75)

4th: FB (89-90), CU (80-82), Cut (87), CB (75-78)

5th: FB (90), CU (79-82), Cut (84), CB (75-77)

6th: FB (87-90), CU (79), Cut (86)

7th: FB (86-89), CU (81)

• Ross Detwiler opposed him. The lefty comes from a high 3/4 release that is almost over the top. His fastball shows some fade and a little sink. His change is a straight change with some sink. His curveball is a slurvy 11-4 offering with okay depth. He battled his command was effectively wild, as he issued 5 walks and got 3 double play balls. He has a ways to go to reach his ceiling as a 3rd starter.

1st: FB (90-94), CU (82-84), CB (76)

2nd: FB (90-93), CU (82), CB (76)

3rd: FB (90-93), CU (82-84), CB (75-77)

4th: FB (89-92), CU (82-83), CB (75-77)

5th: FB (88-92), CU (83), CB (76)

6th: FB (88-91), CU (82-83)

• Julian Tavarez attacks from a 3/4 release with a fastball that shows good fade and sink and a 2-7 slider with decent bite.

7th: FB (88-92), SL (79-81)

• Randy Choate is a sidearming lefty who showed a sweeping 9-3 slider with good late bite and a fastball with some run.

7th: FB (87-89), SL (77-79)

• Ron Villone comes from a high 3/4 release and showed a pretty straight 4-seam fastball and a slurvy 10-4 slider with solid bite. He will tighten the slider and throw a sharper one as a strikeout pitch.

8th: FB (88-89), SL (77-84)

• Joe Beimel is a 6-3, 215 pound lefty. The 32 year old has a medium to big frame that is maxed out. He comes from a high 3/4 release and shows a fastball with some run and sink and a 11-4 curve with good bite. He is a solid lefty in a pen, though I don't know if he should be the 1st lefty in someone's pen.

8th: FB (83-85), CB (71)

• Dan Wheeler is a 31 year old righty. The 6-3, 220 pounder has a medium frame that is maxed out. He comes from an over the top release and showed a 4 pitch repetoire for a reliever: a 4-seam fastball with a litle fade, a 2-7 slider with good bite, a 12-6 curveball with good depth and a change with good fade and sink.

8th: FB (85-89), SL (81-83), CB (76-77), CU (82-83)

• J.P. Howell comes from an over the top release with a fastball with some fade and sink, a 10-4 curve with good depth and a straight change that looks like a fastball out of his hand. Likely the new closer with the injury to Troy Percival.

9th: FB (86-87), CB (79-83), CU (80)

Have 2 charts (and a baseball game) tomorrow and all the games look pretty brutal, so it should be awesome...

Chart Observations: DET @ PIT

• Zach Duke is a 6-2, 205 pound lefty. The 26 year old has a medium frame that can get up to 215. He comes from a high 3/4 release. His fastball shows some fade and a little sink. His change has more fade and sink then his fastball. His curveball is a big breaking 11-5 offering with good depth. His slider is an 11-4 offering with good bite that he prefers to throw to lefties. Duke is a good # 4 starter when he is throwing strikes with his curve and is a 4-A arm if he isn't.

1st: FB (89-90), CB (74), CU (83-84)

2nd: FB (89-90), CB (74-76), CU (83)

3rd: FB (88-90), CB (73-74), CU (82-83)

4th: FB (87-89), CB (73-75), CU (80-81), SL (80)

5th: FB (87-90), CB (74), CU (82-83), SL (80)

6th: FB (88-89), CB (72), CU (81-82)

7th: FB (87-88), CB (72), CU (80), SL (78)

8th: FB (86-89), CB (72-74), SL (77)

• Armando Galarraga, a 6-4 180 pound righty, opposed him. The 27 year old has a big frame that can add a lot more muscle. His fastball is a 2-seam with some fade and a little sink. His slider is a sharp 2-7 with solid bite. He will throw get me over sliders and sharper sliders for strikeouts. His change shows some fade, but is pretty straight. Galarraga is a # 5 starter right now, as he consistently falls behind hitters and really is just FB-SL and neither pitch is good enough to be a 2-pitch pitcher (FB is slightly above average, SL is above average, CU is below average). Perhaps the worst sign for him is that he has lost the confidence of his manager.

1st: FB (88-92), SL (81-86)

2nd: FB (88-92), SL (83-86), CU (84-86)

3rd: FB (88-90), SL (82-85), CU (84)

• Nate Robertson is a 6-2, 225 pound lefty. The 31 year old has a medium frame that is maxed out. He comes from a high 3/4 release. His fastball shows some late fade and sink. His slider is a slurvy 11-4, though he will throw a sharper slider with good bite at different times. His change is a straight change that shows some run and sink. He is your typical swingman, someone to throw long relief or start on occasion, but not really good enough to be a short reliever or a # 5 starter. My, his star has fallen.

3rd: FB (86), SL (80), CU (81-82)

4th: FB (85-88), SL (80-83), CU (80-84)

• Ryan Perry is a 6-4, 200 pound righty. The 22 year old has a big frame that can get up to at least 215. He comes from an over the top release. His fastball is a 4-seam with very little sink and fade. His slider is a 12-6, 1-7 type pitch that can be a little loopy and is still a work in progress. His change has good sink and a little fade. He is FB-SL to righties and FB-CU to lefties (at least in this game, I imagine he throws the SL to lefties as well). His upside is that of a closer with his velocity, but he is more likely to be a set-up man due to his command issues and the needed development of his secondary pitches. Right now, he is a 9th or 10th guy on a staff.

5th: FB (94-96)

6th: FB (94-97), SL (81-85), CU (87)

• Bobby Seay is a 6-2, 235 pound lefty. The 30 year old has a medium frame that is maxed out. He is a sidearmer that has a 4-seam fastball with good run and a sweeping 9-3 slider with good bite. He is an above average LOOGY and can be the # 1 lefty in a pen.

7th: FB (91-93), SL (81-82)

• Brandon Lyon is a 6-1, 195 pound righty. The 29 year old has a medium frame that can get up to at least 205. He comes from a high 3/4 release with a fastball that shows some fade and sink, a big breaking 12-6 curve with good depth and a cutter that shows decent cut. I think he is more of a middle reliever then a late inning guy, as he lacks that real out pitch.

8th: FB (92), CB (76-77), Cut (90)

• Jesse Chavez comes from an over the top release with a fastball that shows some fade, a hard change with good fade and some sink and a sharp slider with good bite. Set-up man ceiling who can probably occasionally close some games.

9th: FB (94-96), SL (90), CU (87)

• Andrew McCutchen is a 5-11, 175 pound center fielder. The 22 year old is a righty hitter/thrower and has a small frame that can add a lot more muscle (at least 190). He has a slightly open stance with a little bat tap. His trigger is a stride and shifting of his weight to his back leg. He has an above average arm with plus speed, giving him the potential to be a plus defensive centerfielder. McCutchen is more of a gap to gap hitter now and I don't think he will ever be a huge home run guy, but 15-20 in his prime isn't out of the question. He shows a solid eye at the plate and he has an aura about him. Watching him play, it is almost as if he knows he is better then everyone else and needs to prove it to everyone else. I like the kid and think he is a quality top of the order bat in development.