For those of you unaware, I am author of a long study evaluating the regression of relief pitchers (and for those of you that do know, it is growing, I am currenly adding specific pitch type and a completely redone disabled list database). Anyways, I identified my top 5 candidates for regression according to the evals and here they are with a quick stat check and my reasoning:
Luis Ayala: Posted 2nd highest Days of Rest score in his career in 2008 and has regressed each time he has posted a qualifying Days of Rest score.
8 Appearances, 1-1, 6.48 ERA. 13 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 8.1 IP
Dennys Reyes: The last time he was worked as hard as he was in 2008 was 2006. In 2007, he regressed greatly.
9 Appearances, 0-1, 3.18 ERA. 3 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 5.2 IP
Brad Lidge: Qualified under 4 criteria in 2008, as well as the 3-season Total IP for 2006-2008. The last time he qualified under these criteria (2006), he suffered regression the next year.
8 Appearances, 0-1, 8.22 ERA. 10 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 7.2 IP
Pedro Feliciano: Qualified under the Days or Rest criteria in 2007 and showed regression in 2008. For 2008, he qualified under 4 criteria, including an even greater number in the Days of Rest evaluator.
9 Appearances, 0-1, 4.76 ERA. 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 5.2 IP
John Grabow: Qualified for the +/- Pitches category in 2006 and regressed in 2007. In 2008, he has qualified for the +/- Pitches in addition to the +/- Inning category.
7 Appearances, 1-0, 0.00 ERA. 7 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 7.1 IP
Updates as actions warrant on these 5 pitchers.
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