I have grouped these by my personal preference (based off this game and other times I have seen some of these players) into positional rankings (based on where I think they will end up, NOT where they are playing now so a guy could be a SS now, but I see him as a 3B, so he is ranked as a 3B).
Below is the link to the video of the Rising Stars Game. If you would like, feel free to watch it and relay your thoughts, even if you differ from me on it. I love to hear what other people see when breaking down the same game tape. Also, if anyone knows where to find other game tapes (such as the AFL Championship Game), please let me know.
http://mlbnetwork.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=7126311
So, without further ado:
TK's Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Game Positional Breakdown
Catchers
1) Buster Posey
Age: 22
Org: San Francisco Giants
Quick Report: Smaller frame than normally see from a catcher with a smaller lower half. Still room for projection. Has a professional approach at the plate and is more of a gap to gap hitter. Ideal 2 hole hitter who exhibits above average bat control and has slightly above average speed, especially when compared to other catchers. Good actions defensively, but didn't see his arm, as no one attempted to steal.
Weaknesses: Can have some difficulties recognizing changeups. Power is a concern.
Overall Eval: Above average catcher. Should be a .300 hitter with 10-15 homers and defensively should be in the 2nd tier of catchers. Ideal fit for the Giants ballpark.
TK's Baseball Blog Ranking In Org: UR due to prior service time.
Correct Ranking: Y. If he was ranked, I would value him as the top prospect in San Francisco's system.
Comparable Player: Jason Kendall in his prime.
MLB ETA: 2010 starter out of spring training.
2) Jason Castro
Age: 22
Org: Houston Astros
Quick Report: Big frame with some projection still to it. Athletic build. Profiles as a 6 or 7 hole hitter in a good lineup. Solid swing that has pull power. Defensively, slightly above average arm with good footwork behind the plate and good actions. Accuracy is also slightly above average.
Weaknesses: Shows some struggles in catching up to good fastballs. Can get into some slumps.
Overall Eval: League average to slightly above league average offensive catcher. .270-.280 average with 15-20 homers. Good fit for the Astros park and should inflate his HR numbers a little.
TKBB RO: # 2
Correct Ranking: Y. He is the player I thought he was and this was my 2nd time watching him.
Comparable Player: A.J. Pierzynski with less average ability but a little more power.
MLB ETA: 2010 starter out of spring training
3) Hank Conger
Age: 21
Org: Los Angeles Angels
Quick Report: Big, strong guy with a frame that is maxed out. Switch hitter who only hit left handed in this game. From the left side, he has a lot of movement in his swing, meaning he will be prone to slumps. He has a good looking swing that features above average pull power and features good loft to it. Defensively, has good actions around the plate and blocks balls well. Slightly above average arm with accuracy that can be inconsistent.
Weaknesses: Ability to stay healthy. Can he hit for average?
Overall Eval: I see an offensive minded backup catcher. Has good power and good defensively, but just has too many holes in his swing right now for pitchers to exploit.
TKBB RO: # 2
Correct Ranking: N. After watching him play, I feel like a more appropriate ranking for him would be in the 7-10 range.
Comparable Player: Ryan Doumit with less athleticism. If he doesn't catch, 1B is his only other option.
MLB ETA: September 2010
4) Matt McBride
Age: 24
Org: Cleveland Indians
Quick Report: Frame looks smaller then his listed weight and needs to hit the weight room some more. Almost built like a stringbean. Swing looks good with above average pull power. Dead pull hitter at this point and doesn't have the ability to go the other way. Doesn't have a defined plan at the plate. Defensively, good defensive catcher with above average arm.
Weaknesses: Offensive package.
Overall Eval: If he makes it, it will be on the strength of his defense. Profiles as a back-up catcher who can run into a pitch every 2 weeks for homers.
TKBB RO: UR
Correct Ranking: Y. Probably around the late twenties, early thirties as a prospect in the organization and is behind Carlos Santana and Lou Marson (prefer Marson to McBride).
Comparable Player: Kelly Shoppach with less average and on base ability.
MLB ETA: September 2010
First Basemen
1) Yonder Alonso
Age: 22
Org: Cincinnati Reds
Quick Report: Maxed out frame that has a strong, built lower half. Tremendous offensive package featuring a beautiful left handed swing that squares everything up. Was one of the few lefty sticks in this game who appeared to be comfortable in the box against left handed pitching. Swing has some loft to it and is very quick to the ball. Is a slightly below average runner and is a below average defender that you hope will develop into an average defender. Struggled to scoop balls and didn't show much mobility at the position.
Weaknesses: Defense.
Overall Eval: The best pure hitter in this game. Expect him to win a batting title or two. Should hit .315-.330 consistently and show 20-25 home run power in normal parks and should be a 30 homer guy in Cinci. Likely a below average defender however.
TKBB RO: # 1
Correct Ranking: Y. He has also moved up in my personal evaluation of the top prospects in baseball and rank him the top hitter I have seen (Heyward, Stanton and some others are better overall prospects)
Comparable Player: Adrian Gonzalez without the defense
MLB ETA: Is major league ready now. When he debuts depends on what happens with Joey Votto. If I need a 1Bmen, I call the Reds and try to get one of these guys.
2) Josh Bell
Age: 22
Org: Baltimore Orioles
Quick Report: Big frame that appears to have a little bad weight to it as well. Looks much more comfortable batting LH, whereas RH he appears to work in phases of his swing with different stages to it. As a lefty stick, shows an ability to hit for average and power, but it can get long at times and get around the ball. Is almost dead pull from the left side (and right side). As a righty stick, he projects to hit for good power, but is close to an all or nothing hitter with the dropping of the hands and everything. Is currently a 3B, but I have seen him twice (3 games) and he has demonstrated a bad 1st step and slow reactions each time I have seen him. As he ages, he is more likely to keep adding weight then taking it off, so I feel he will make the transition to 1st base at some point.
Weaknesses: Defense. Ability to hit for average.
Overall Eval: Should provide major league average to slightly above average production at 1st base. Profiles to be a .270 or .280 hitter at his best with 25-30 homers. His work ethic will determine just how good a fielder he becomes. Impact bat.
TKBB RO: # 6.
Correct Ranking: N. Probably is a little higher. He grew on me a little and projected him to hit for more power after watching this game. Likely a 3-5 range guy.
Comparable Player: Tony Clark (color commentator did a great job) had it right, he is very comparable to Bobby Bonilla.
MLB ETA: Midseason 2010
3) Brandon Snyder
Age: 22
Org: Baltimore Orioles
Quick Report: Maxed out, athletic frame with a strong base. Swing is quick through the zone and profiles to hit for a good average, but likely only doubles power. He is a very disciplined hitter who understands how to work at bats. Has some issues with pitch recognition and the ability to catch up to plus fastballs. Defensively, made a nice diving play to his left and actually profiles as an average to slightly above average 1st basemen as he continues to get used to the position.
Weaknesses: Pitch recognition. Ability to hit for enough power to play 1st base.
Overall Eval: League average 1st basemen who will hit .275-.285 with 15-20 homers.
TKBB RO: # 10
Correct Ranking: Y. Bell projects to be a better impact bat, but Snyder is the more well-rounded player and is major league ready.
Comparable Player: Steve Pearce. They are basically identical to me.
MLB ETA: May-June 2010
4) Ike Davis
Age: 22
Org: New York Mets
Quick Report: Big frame that has a ton of room for projection and almost looks more like a swingman in basketball. Has a somewhat thick lower half. Unique stance with a longer trigger and has a hitch in his swing when he brings his hands down to start his swing. Not comfortable against lefty pitching. Solid swing that is built more for line drives then power and is a solid, patient hitter who keeps his weight back well and appears to recognize pitches well. Didn't see much of him defensively. Some guys you can get a decent enough feel for after 1 game and others you want to see more. Davis is a guy I need to see more to get a better idea.
Weaknesses: Longer swing. Lefty pitching.
Overall Eval: Might hit for power, might not. Might hit for average, might not. Zero feel. If a gun was to my head, I would say he will hit .275-.285 with 10-15 homers. Could be a decent fit for Citi Field.
TKBB RO: # 3
Correct Ranking: Y. Sure, why not? I need to get a better feel for him.
Comparable Player: Ummmm, how about James Loney minus the defense?
MLB ETA: Middle of 2010.
5) Brandon Allen
Age: 23
Org: Arizona Diamondbacks
Quick Report: Didn't spend as much time breaking his down as he had major league service time and was broken down more in depth in prior postings. He does feature above average power to center and right field, but is more of a mistake hitter. If the ball isn't where he expects it, he is in trouble. Longer swing. Average defender.
Weaknesses: Ability to hit for average. Pitch recognition.
Overall Eval: Bench bat who will provide good power.
TKBB RO: UR due to prior service time.
Correct Ranking: Y.
Comparable Player: Hank Blalock with less athleticism and a little less pop.
MLB ETA: Already there.
Second Basemen
1) Jemile Weeks
Age: 22
Org: Oakland Athletics
Quick Report: Switch hitter with a small frame that has the room for a little more projection. From the right side, he shows a quick swing with above average bat speed. From the left side, he shows good bat speed and some pull power. Solid plan at the plate, though he can get over aggressive at times. Is likely a 60-65 runner who gets to top speed quickly. Base stealer who shows the ability to get good jumps and he trusts his speed and is very aggressive. Defensively, looked a little raw, but showed good actions.
Weaknesses: Ability to stay healthy. Defense.
Overall Eval: See him as an above average 2Bmen who profiles as a leadoff hitter and should hit .300 consistently. He should also be able to hit 10-15 homers as he continues to develop his frame and steal 25-35 bases a year.
TKBB RO: # 6.
Correct Ranking: N. Saw him at the Futures Game and didn't get a great feel for him. Feel more comfortable now and feel like injuries are the only thing stopping him from his potential. Likely a 2-5 prospect ranking.
Comparable Player: Brian Roberts with a little less power but a little more speed.
MLB ETA: Midseason 2011
2) Lance Zawadzki
Age: 24
Org: San Diego Padres
Quick Report: Switch hitter that is close to being maxed out. Good athlete who shows good change of direction ability. From the left side, shows a good line drive swing that can pull his front shoulder on occasion. Hits for more average from the left side. From the right side, has a little more power and has better loft in his swing. Grows on you the more you watch him. Looks like a gamer who hustles and allows his tools to play up. Looks like an above average runner. Defensively, shows good range to his left and is average at turning the double play, but does have some difficulty making the throw consistently. Profiles to be a slightly above average defender.
Weaknesses: Consistent contact. How much power?
Overall Eval: See him as a strong 2-hole hitter who should hit .280-.290 with 15-20 homers and slightly above average defense.
TKBB RO: UR
Correct Ranking: N. This guy is a gamer who is likely in the 8-10 range for prospects in that organization.
Comparable Player: Maicer Izturis
MLB ETA: Midseason 2010.
3) Chase D'Arnaud
Age: 22
Org: Pittsburgh Pirates
Quick Report: Currently a 3Bmen, but his offensive profile points to a 2Bmen or utility role. Medium frame with a somewhat built lower half that has some more projection to it. Patient hitter with a good plan at the plate. He features a line drive swing with some loft to it. Is an all fields hitter who hits gap to gap. Defensively, is good at third with good reactions and a slightly above average arm.
Weaknesses: Power profile as 3Bmen.
Overall Eval: I see a .280-.300 hitter with 5-10 homers and a good OBP. Which is why I think he profiles better as a 2B then a 3B.
TKBB RO: UR
Correct Ranking: Y. As of right now, due to the questions about his eventual position in my eyes, he is a 15-20 ranked prospect.
Comparable Player: Jamey Carroll
MLB ETA: September 2011
Third Basemen
1) Mike Moustakas
Age: 21
Org: Kansas City Royals
Quick Report: Looks more like an old-time ballplayer then a current era ball player due to his frame. Medium frame with a thick lower half and a somewhat thick midsection with very large thighs and definitely has some bad weight. Swing is a beautiful line drive swing that stays on a good plane and is quick through the zone. When he pulls the ball, he clears his hips very well. Very, very aggressive hitter who will get himself out. No groundballs were hit to him, so I am unsure how he rates as a 3rd basemen, but I have to feel like he can't get too much bigger or he will end up at 1st base.
Weaknesses: Aggressiveness. Frame.
Overall Eval: I see a corner infielder (position TBD) who should hit for .280-.300 averages, but likely .320-.340 on base percentages. Profiles to be an above average power hitter with 20-25 home runs.
TKBB RO: # 5
Correct Ranking: Y. No doubting the natural tools, needs to start translating it. Improved physique would help.
Comparable Player: Hate to use the same comparable, but Bobby Bonilla is the best fit I can think of.
MLB ETA: Late 2011, Start of 2012.
2) Carlos Triunfel
Age: 19
Org: Seattle Mariners
Quick Report: Small frame that looks much bigger then his listed 175. Built body with a thick lower half that is surprisingly maxed out for a 19 year old. Very aggressive hitter who does tend to have his front shoulder fly open and getting out on his front foot, leading to him being pull heavy. Above average pull power with very strong wrists. Has the youthfulness inability to distinguish pitches. Defensively, has a slow transfer at short and has a tendency to hit his glove prior to fielding a ball. May have to try 2nd base as well.
Weaknesses: Youth. Stay healthy?
Overall Eval: I see a streaky hitter developing. I see a guy who should hit 25-30 home runs, but won't walk much and will hit .250 or .260.
TKBB RO: # 6
Correct Ranking: Y. As of right now, that is about right. A lot of potential, needs a lot of at bats.
Comparable Player: Adrian Beltre without the defense.
MLB ETA: 2012.
3) Carlos Rivero
Age: 21
Org: Cleveland Indians
Quick Report: Zero feel to this guy. Need to see him play 2 or 3 times to get a better idea. As it is now, he has a medium frame that can add maybe 5 more pounds of muscle. Strong lower half with an athletic build. Has a slight hitch in his swing, as he drops the bat in his trigger. His swing has some loft to it. No idea how he fields.
Weaknesses: Offensive package. Power?
Overall Eval: With a gun to my head right now, I would say he profiles as a future utility infielder.
TKBB RO: UR
Correct Ranking: Sure, why not?
Comparable Player: How about Mark Loretta?
MLB ETA: 2011
Shortstops
1) Jose Iglesias
Age: 19
Org: Boston Red Sox
Quick Report: Small frame that has room for projection. This was his first exposure to professional baseball. Stance is similar to that of Alex Rodriguez, meaning it is very quiet. Quick swing with above average bat speed that profiles to have some power to all fields. Can't catch up to plus fastballs right now. Very smooth defender who looks like he has been doing this for years.
Weaknesses: Offensive package due to youth.
Overall Eval: I see an All-Star. I see a guy who is at or close to that level with the glove right now and profiles to be, at worst, a .280-.290 hitter with 15-20 homers.
TKBB RO: UR due to not being signed at the time.
Correct Ranking: N. He is maybe the top prospect in their organization.
Comparable Player: Orlando Cabrera conservative side. Hanley Ramirez best case.
MLB ETA: Late 2011
2) Starlin Castro
Age: 19
Org: Chicago Cubs
Quick Report: Medium frame that has appeared to add some muscle since the Futures Game. Still has a ton of room for projection. Swing looks good, though he can leak his front shoulder and get out on his front foot at times. Above average, aggressive runner who trusts his speed and can make things happen. Has instincts you can't teach that show themselves the more you watch him. No grounders hit to him in this game.
Weaknesses: Youth. Consistent swing.
Overall Eval: I see an offensive package similar to Derek Jeter. A guy who will hit .280-.290 with 15-20 homers. Likely a better defender, but that is just because you can't get worse then Jeter.
TKBB RO: # 4
Correct Ranking: N. I would now say he is their top prospect in the organization.
Comparable Player: Derek Jeter (see overall eval)
MLB ETA: Mid 2011
3) Brandon Hicks
Age: 24
Org: Atlanta Braves
Quick Report: Medium frame that is maxed out. Stance is similar to that of Omar Infante. Has a hitch, where his bat changes planes from his stance to his trigger. Will never hit for much power and hitting for average is a question mark. Very smooth defender who has an above average 1st step and can make hard plays look easy. Just as good to his right as his left with above average hands.
Weaknesses: Offensive package.
Overall Eval: Utility infielder who just won't hit enough. Think Adam Everett with less offense. Yea, kind of rough. Is a good enough athlete where he should be able to learn 2nd and 3rd.
TKBB RO: UR
Correct Ranking: Y. I don't have much confidence in his stick.
Comparable Player: Josh Wilson
MLB ETA: Late 2011
Left Fielders
1) Chris Heisey
Age: 24
Org: Cincinnati Reds
Quick Report: Medium frame that actually still has room for some projection. Keeps the bat on a good plane and generates above average pull power with his swing. Professional hitter with a good plan at the plate and he appears to look for something in the fat part of the plate to drive. Slightly above average speed with a slightly above average arm.
Weaknesses: Honestly, haven't really noticed one. If nitpicking, can he hit a plus fastball?
Overall Eval: A cheap 5-tool OF. See a slightly above average starting left fielder who should hit .280-.290 with 20-25 homers. Playing in the bandbox that is Cinci, may be a 30 home run guy. Should also steal 15-20 bases.
TKBB RO: # 2
Correct Ranking: Y. He looks to be one heck of a player.
Comparable Player: Mini Jason Bay. Best case is grown up Jason Bay.
MLB ETA: 2010 starter out of spring training.
2) Grant Desme
Age: 23
Org: Oakland Athletics
Quick Report: Medium frame that still has a lot of projection to it. Sits dead red fastballs early in the count and can be beaten (and made to look silly) on early changeups. Will make adjustments, but will still revert to his aggressiveness. Guess hitter who at this stage will have difficulties with pitchers who mix speeds well. Slightly above average arm and slightly above average speed.
Weaknesses: Consistent contact. Pitch recognition.
Overall Eval: I need to see more of him and don't have a great feel, but I see a 4th OF who will only have slightly above average power in the majors. See a .240 hitter with 20-25 homers if he plays everyday.
TKBB RO: # 10
Correct Ranking: Y. I want to see if he can continue on his breakout season against better pitching.
Comparable Player: This year's Carlos Quentin. Best case is a Josh Willingham.
MLB ETA: Late 2011
3) Rene Tosoni
Age: 23
Org: Minnesota Twins
Quick Report: Seen him twice and have zero feel for him. Medium frame that has room for a lot of projection. Lefty hitter didn't look real comfortable against lefty pitching, but showed a good line drive oriented swing with some loft. Shows above average speed.
Weaknesses: Power.
Overall Eval: I see a line drive oriented, average hitting 4th OF who can spot play for you in CF. I project him to a .270-.280 average with little power (3-8 homers)
TKBB RO: UR
Correct Ranking: N. Probably is in the 8-12 range for prospects. Depends on the power that comes.
Comparable Player: Orlando Palmeiro
MLB ETA: Late 2011
Center Fielders
1) Dustin Ackley
Age: 21
Org: Seattle Mariners
Quick Report: Medium frame that has room for projection. Open stance and is a true professional hitter with a good plan at the plate and doesn't give away at bats. Is a grinder who fights in every at bat. Short, compact swing that is designed to spray line drives to all fields. Has above average speed and is a bit of a choppy runner in CF, but covers a lot of ground with an average arm that is kind of a slinger.
Weaknesses: Power.
Overall Eval: I see a major league ready hitter who should hit for a good average (.290-.310) with .400 on base percentages and some power (10-20 homers), but more doubles. Should also steal 25-35 bases. Ideal leadoff hitter.
TKBB RO: # 1
Correct Ranking: Y. Profiles so well.
Comparable Player: Darin Erstad in his prime.
MLB ETA: Is major league ready now. Will likely get a little seasoning due to Franklin Gutierrez's presence.
2) Daryl Jones
Age: 22
Org: St. Louis Cardinals
Quick Report: Small frame that is very close to being maxed out. Short, compact swing that appears to be a little pull heavy and has some loft to it, but too much loft for my liking as he has plus speed. Has average pull power. Seen him twice and haven't yet seen him in the field...
Weaknesses: Defense?
Overall Eval: I am divided on him (as I am on the 2 guys under him and like DJ, I have seen each of them twice or more) on if they are 4th OF's or starting CF's. I prefer Colby Rasmus to him and don't think he will provide enough production to be a corner outfielder. I think he is a .260-.270 hitter with 10-15 homers and 20-25 stolen bases getting everyday at bats.
TKBB RO: # 4
Correct Ranking: Y. He is an athlete who has a big ceiling if he can continue to develop it.
Comparable Player: Curtis Granderson with less power and less on base ability.
MLB ETA: Late 2010, Early 2011
3) Bryan Peterson
Age: 23
Org: Florida Marlins
Quick Report: Saw him play when I worked in the SAL for a 3-game series. Medium frame with a thick lower half that is maxed out. Has shortened his swing since I saw him and now is able to go to all fields. More of a line drive hitter who will run into some homers. Good pitch recognition and has an idea of what he is doing at the late. Good 2 strike hitter. Makes good reads on balls and get a good first step with above average speed. Hustler who has a dirty uni after every game.
Weaknesses: Power? Cutting down on strikeouts?
Overall Eval: Saw a 4th OF after watching him in the SAL. Now I can see a legimitate starting CF at times and a 4th OF at times. Honestly, see him playing too hard to be able to play everyday. Should hit for average (.280-.290) and some power (10-15 homers) as an everyday player.
TKBB RO: UR
Correct Ranking: Y. I think he is in the 11-15 range of prospects.
Comparable Player: Chris Snelling before the injuries.
MLB ETA: Late 2010.
4) Casper Wells
Age: 24
Org: Detroit Tigers
Quick Report: Saw him play also at Erie. He has a medium frame that is maxed out and is almost built like a LB. His swing can get long and slow at times and can arm bar himself and limit his ability to pull inside fastballs. However, is a tremendously gifted hitter who can go where the ball is pitched and tends to hit the ball hard with power to all fields. Features an above average throwing arm, enabling him to play all 3 OF positions.
Weaknesses: Consistent contact?
Overall Eval: Really, Jones, Peterson and Wells are the same players projection wise to me. Decide to rank them with age as the differentiator. I worry about his ability to hit for average and can see him hitting anywhere from .240-.280 with solid power 10-20 homers and speed (15-25 steals).
TKBB RO: # 5.
Correct Ranking: Y. 5 tool guy who needs some more refinement, so those guys get rated higher.
Comparable Player: This year's version of Vernon Wells.
MLB ETA: Midseason 2010
Right Fielders
1) Domonic Brown
Age: 22
Age: 22
Org: Philadelphia Phillies
Quick Report: Didn't study him too much due to having previous posts with good reports on him. He still arm bars himself on inside fastballs, which concerns me. However, he shows an ability to hit the ball to all fields. He is extremely raw for a guy who played at AA last year. Defensively, his routes and reads require work, but he has above average speed and an above average arm.
Weaknesses: Refinement.
Overall Eval: Best projection is one of the all star OF who hits .290-.310 with 25-35 homers and at least 25 steals. I would say he has about a 50 % chance of reaching that ceiling.
TKBB RO: # 1
Correct Ranking: Y. Only Heyward profiles better amongst right fielders I have seen (have seen Mike Stanton play)
Comparable Player: Shin-Soo Choo
MLB ETA: Hope to not see him promoted until late 2011.
2) Jordan Danks
Age: 23
Org: Chicago White Sox
Quick Report: Another guy I think I like, but need to see more. Big guy that has a gangly build and has some room for projection. Is a better athlete then he looks. Has a short swing that is quick to the ball and generates power to all fields. Has some issues with pitch recognition and can look silly at times and does not look comfortable against lefties. Defensively, is an above average runner and has an above average throwing arm (brother is Sox pitcher John Danks) that he sometimes likes to show off by airmailing some throws. He can play CF at times.
Weaknesses: Consistent contact.
Overall Eval: I see a league average starting RF who hits .250-.270 with 20-25 homers and slightly above average defense. Playing in CHW, he may be able to be a high 20 home run guy.
TKBB RO: # 2.
Correct Ranking: N. I don't think he can be a full-time CF, which was the reasoning behind the high ranking. Likely more of a 5-8 ranked prospect.
Comparable Player: Josh Hamilton
MLB ETA: Midseason 2010
3) Jose Tabata
Age: 21
Org: Pittsburgh Pirates
Quick Report: Small athletic build that is maxed out and appears to have a little thickness to his lower half. Good looking swing that is straight to the ball. Has some issues with pitch recognition and at this stage of his career will struggle to hit pitchers with good offspeed stuff and command. Defensively, is a little too rough for me to project him as a center fielder (definitely not as good as McCutchen either) and doesn't get great bat reads. Has a slightly above average arm.
Weaknesses: Pitch recognition. Defense.
Overall Eval: I see a guy who getting on base may be an issue, but should be a .270-.280 hitter that can hit 10-15 homers and steal 20-30 bases. Whether that can carry a corner outfield spot depends on where that team receives its power. Can play CF occasionally.
TKBB RO: # 2
Correct Ranking: N. I made that ranking under the assumption he would play more CF and hit for more power. More of a 4-8 ranking.
Comparable Player: Lastings Milledge
MLB ETA: Midseason 2011
Starting Pitchers
1) Danny Gutierrez
Age: 22
Org: Texas Rangers
Build/Delivery: 6-1, 180. Medium frame that can get up to about 190. Athletic build. Very quiet, smooth delivery that generates easy velocity. Over the top release.
Fastball: 4-seamer that jumps out of his hand and has a little run in on righties and a little sink. Could spot it well on this day.
Curveball: 12-6 pitch with excellent depth and great tilt that is a true plus pitch. He can throw it for strikes or bury it.
Velocities: FB (94-96), CB (74-77)
Overall Eval: Profiles as a strong # 2 starter. Haven't seen the changeup, but he already has 2 plus pitches so he just needs it to be serviceable. The delivery gives me confidence that he can stay healthy and maintain a starter's workload. If starting doesn't work out, he can be an all star closer with his fastball/curveball combo.
2) Andrew Oliver (LHP)
Age: 21
Org: Detroit Tigers
Build/Delivery: 6-3, 210. Big frame with an athletic build and a strong lower half that still has a little more projection to it. Very quiet delivery with no real red flags and generates easy velocity. High 3/4 release.
Fastball: Explosive pitch that has a little run in on lefties and some sink. Has average to slightly above average command of the pitch now. Is his go-to offering.
Slider: 11-5 offering with good bite that shows potential. Has a tendency to leave it up and can't locate it yet. Break can be inconsistent.
Changeup: Is straight and looks like a fastball out of his hand. Still below average command and needs to develop it.
Velocities: FB (94-96), SL (83-85), CU (85)
Overall Eval: I think he should be developed as a starter, where he has the potential to be a # 2 starter (though it is all potential). His fastball is major league ready now, just needing to slightly refine his command. His slider and changeup are in development, but both show flashes of being something. If starting doesn't work out, he can be a Matt Thornton like reliever out of the pen.
3) Mike Minor (LHP)
Age: 21
Org: Atlanta Braves
Build/Delivery: 6-3, 200. Big frame that can get up to about 215 or 220. He has an athletic, strong build. He has a high 3/4, almost over the top release with quiet mechanics and good arm action.
Fastball: Throws both a 2-seamer and a 4-seamer. The 2-seamer has some run in on lefties and a little sink while his 4-seamer is straight with little additional velocity. He has solid command of the fastball, but can miss in the zone a little too often.
Changeup: Has some fade from righties and good sink. Is his go-to pitch and he will throw it in any count. Trusts it and has good location of it.
Slider: Is a sharp 2-7 offering that can almost look like a cutter with some bite. Control of the pitch can be erratic.
Curveball: Sharp 12-6 pitch with average depth that appears to be his strikeout pitch to righties with his change.
Velocities: FB (90-92), SL (83-85), CB (81), CU (82-84)
Overall Eval: Profiles as a middle of the rotation innings eater. Should be strong enough with a clean enough delivery to consistently make his starts. Will be a 4-pitch starter who will use primarily his slightly above average fastball and his above average change and then finish hitters with 1 of his 2 breaking pitches. Also may have an arm angle that will allow him to throw a cutter down the line.
4) Mike Leake
Age: 21
Org: Cincinnati Reds
Build/Delivery: 6-1, 190. Medium frame that can get up to about 210 if he so desires. He is an above average athlete. He has a rock back and forth delivery that has some effort to it and comes from a high 3/4 release. Good tempo in his delivery and he repeats it well despite a lot of action in it. Very fast worker who gets the ball and goes.
Fastball: 2-seamer that has good run in on righties and good sink. Has good command of the pitch and likes to spot it on the gloveside corner to righties.
Cutter: Has good cut that he likes to throw to the gloveside corner to righties as well. Very good pitch that he uses very well.
Slider: A tight 2-7 offering with above average bite and is his out pitch against righties. Is an above average offering right now. Has good command of it, but only appears to be able to bury it.
Curveball: 1-7 offering with average depth and the one he threw ended up in the left handed batter's box.
Changeup: Has some dive that he will throw to righties. Doesn't use it often and is more of a feel pitch for him.
Velocities: FB (90-91), Cut (89-90), SL (82-83), CB (80), CU (84)
Overall Eval: Profiles as a middle of the rotation starter who should be able to eat innings. There is a lot of effort in his delivery, which is a concern for the long haul, but he should be able to work through it due to his ability to repeat his delivery well. As a starter, he will be similar to Roy Halladay, except relying on a plus slider vs. a plus-plus curveball. He is a poor man's Halladay, one whose cutter and 2-seam aren't quite that good. He throws nothing straight and does a great job of changing speeds and keeping hitters off balance. If starting doesn't work out, he profiles well as a middle reliever who is primarily fastball-cutter.
5) Reidier Gonzalez
Age: 24
Org: Toronto Blue Jays
Build/Delivery: 5-9, 215. Small frame that is maxed out with a strong base. Quiet, smooth delivery from a high 3/4, almost over the top release. Looks like a bulldog on the mound and constantly attacks.
Fastball: 2-seamer that has good run in on righties and good sink that he can spot. Likes to get ahead with this pitch, but isn't quite good enough to get people out when they are sitting on it.
Changeup: Has some late fade from lefties and a little sink. Has solid command of the pitch and threw the only for a strike in a 0-1 count.
Curveball: 12-6 pitch with slightly above average depth and above average tilt that he can spot. Serves as his out pitch that he can throw for strikes or bury for strikeouts. Knee-buckler.
Velocities: FB (90-91), CB (77-80), CU (83)
Overall Eval: Profiles as a back of the rotation starter who will need a strong defense behind him. His fastball is right around average and his change is slightly above. His curveball is a difference maker though and he can really throw people off his stuff by throwing it. If he doesn't start, he can make a solid middle reliever who is primarily operating with an average fastball and plus curve.
6) Tommy Mendoza
Age: 22
Org: Los Angeles Angels
Build/Delivery: 6-2, 195. Medium frame that is very close to being maxed out and may be able to add another 5 pounds of muscle. Fast worker who gets the ball and goes. He breaks his glove hand high, adding some injury risk to him. Outside of that, his delivery is pretty clean. He came from an over the top release.
Fastball: Is a 2-seamer with some sink and some run in on righties. Has good command of the pitch usually, but struggled to locate it here.
Changeup: Good fade from lefties and good sink that looks like a fastball out of his hand and is an above average offering. Shows good command of this pitch.
Curveball: 12-6 offering with average depth. More of a show pitch then a pitch to get guys out.
Velocities: FB (88-91), CB (77), CU (80)
Overall Eval: # 5 starter at best. Slightly below average fastball and neither of his off-speed pitches does much for me. Would be a better fit in the NL then the AL.
Relief Pitchers
1) Tanner Scheppers
Age: 22
Org: Texas Rangers
Build/Delivery: 6-4, 170. Big frame that can add a ton of muscle everywhere and is a long and lanky kid. Comes from an over the top release. Fast worker with good tempo in his delivery, though he does pause at break to almost gather himself. He bounces slightly as he awaits to pitch.
Fastball: Explosive 4-seamer that explodes out of his hand that he has solid command of.
Curveball: Power 12-6 with some depth that needs to be refined a little more. Command and break of the pitch are inconsistent.
Changeup: Straight with a little fade from lefties that needs to be developed and the only he threw sailed into the RH batter's box.
Velocities: FB (96-98), CB (83), CU (89)
Overall Eval: Dynamite, all-star closer. He operates with a plus-plus fastball that he has command of that can big league hitters out now. His off-speed offerings need to be refined slightly, but he is close to being big league ready. I think he only needs a couple months in the minors before making an impact in the majors.
2) Craig Kimbrel
Age: 21
Org: Atlanta Braves
Build/Delivery: 5-11, 205. Small frame that is maxed out with a thick, strong lower half. Classic drop and drive delivery that is pretty clean. Comes from a 3/4 release.
Fastball: Explosive 4-seam that is up in the zone is straight with extra oomph at the end and if down has some run in on righties. He can get too fine with it at times and almost needs to realize he can afford to miss in the middle of the plate once in awhile.
Slider: 2-7 offering with above average bite that just disappears. He can only throw it as a chase pitch and needs to come up with another pitch that he can throw for strikes.
Velocities: FB (95-97), SL (84-85)
Overall Eval: All-star closer. He is a little further away then Scheppers, as his command still needs some refinement. Once he figures out even a little more command, he will be ready to have a huge impact at the big league level. I think he will get about a month or two (likely enough to stop his arbitration clock) before getting his call-up.
3) Drew Storen
Age: 22
Org: Washington Nationals
Build/Delivery: 6-2, 180. Medium frame that can get up to about 205 if he so desires, as he has a ton of room to add more muscle everywhere. Athletic build. Classic drop and drive delivery. Has a pause after he takes his initial side stride to begin his motion. Max effort delivery with an over the top release.
Fastball: Has some run in on righties and some sink. Is an explosive pitch that gets right at hitters. Has slightly above average command of the pitch and locates it well.
Slider: Tight 2-7 with good bite. Can throw it for strikes or as an out pitch.
Curveball: Sharp 1-7 offering with good depth and tilt. Can throw it for strikes or as an out pitch.
Velocities: FB (95-96), SL (84-87), CB (82-84)
Overall Eval: All-star closer. These 3 guys are the cream of the crop of relief prospects imo. Storen is likely the most major league ready, but I don't think his pitches are as dominant as the other two. Similar to Joe Nathan in regards to his repetoire. Do not be surprised if he breaks camp with the team (and beats out Matt Capps to be the closer).
4) Michael Dunn (LH)
Age: 24 (not 27 as was repeatedly said on the telecast)
Org: Atlanta Braves
Build/Delivery: 6-1, 195. Medium frame that can add 5 or 10 pounds of muscle to his lower. Strong, athletic build. Came from a high 3/4 release with a somewhat violent head jerk, but a pretty smooth delivery (likely due to the fact he is a converted position player). High effort delivery.
Fastball: Straight 4-seam that explodes out of his hand that can catch too much of the plate occasionally.
Slider: Tight 11-5 offering with solid bite that is solid enough, though he doesn't yet have solid command of the pitch and it can be inconsistent.
Velocities: FB (95-96), SL (86-87)
Overall Eval: 1st lefty in a pen. He is a dominant pitcher who can get out both lefties and righties due to his plus fastball. Slider shows enough ability to get out lefties. Braves may have solidified their pen with this pickup.
5) Dustin Richardson (LH)
Age: 25
Org: Boston Red Sox
Build/Delivery: 6-6, 220. Big frame that can get up to 235-240 if he so desires. Long, lanky build that looks more like the body of a wing in basketball. Comes from a high 3/4 release that can be tough on lefties. Features a Jamie Moyer style leg kick and then gets good extension and explodes towards the plate. Has a very violent head jerk and almost over rotates his throwing shoulder.
Fastball: 4-seamer with a little late run in on lefties. Has solid, if inconsistent, command of the pitch.
Curveball: Slurvy 11-5 with slightly below average depth. He struggled with the pitch in this outing by not finishing it, as it ended up in the lefty batter's box and up. When thrown right, showed good tilt and downward action.
Changeup: Some fade from righties and a little sink. More of a show pitch then a pitch to get anyone out.
Velocities: FB (93-95), CB (77-80), CU (79)
Overall Eval: Profiles as the 1st lefty in a pen. Doesn't quite have the velocity of a Michael Dunn, but is close behind. He would likely be tougher on lefties then righties and needs to refine his curve and change. He should be in the big league by June.
6) Josh Fields
Age: 24
Org: Seattle Mariners
Build/Delivery: 6-0, 185. Small frame with a thin build that can add another 5 to 10 pounds of muscle. Good athlete. Came from an over the top release with a violent delivery where he juts out his front leg and lands hard on it.
Fastball: Explosive, dead straight 4-seam with a little extra oomph at the end. Doesn't finish the pitch well and tends to miss up. Has erratic command.
Curveball: Power 12-6 offering with inconsistent depth. At it's best, it has slightly above average depth and good tilt.
Velocities: FB (93-95), CB (80-81)
Overall Eval: League average set-up guy. Has great stuff, but it is so inconsistent and he isn't that young. Fastball is a better pitch then its velocity and movement indicate, but his command causes it to play down. The curve could be an unbelievable out pitch, but it is too inconsistent at this point. Likely will make it to Seattle at the age of 25 after another year of refinement in the minors at the minimum.
7) Javy Guerra
Age: 23
Org: Los Angeles Dodgers
Build/Delivery: 6-1, 195. Medium frame that looks much bigger then 195 and has the tiny looks of a gut. Works primarily from the stretch. Clean delivery with an over the top release.
Fastball: A little late run in on righties and flashes some sink. Command is very erratic and tends to battle it at times.
Changeup: Has some late fade from lefties and some sink that he will throw in 3-2 counts. Does not show very good command of this pitch, which made it even more bizarre as a 3-2 pitch.
Slider: Tight 2-7 pitch with some bite. Only threw 1, so hard to get a feel for it as an out pitch.
Velocities: FB (93-94), SL (88), CU (81-83)
Overall Eval: Solid set-up man. A little further along then Fields in regards to command, but his pure stuff isn't as good. He is likely 2 years away. Command needs some more refinement and will be the thing that separates him from set-up guy to middle reliever.
8) Andrew Johnston
Age: 25
Org: Colorado Rockies
Build/Delivery: 6-5, 205. Big frame that is long and lanky and can get up to at least 220 pounds if he so desires and is another guy who is built like a wing in basketball. Comes from a high 3/4 release with a fairly clean delivery, though he has a moderate head jerk and almost over rotates his throwing shoulder.
Fastball: Good run in on righties with above average sink that flashes as a plus sinker. Has good command of the pitch despite all the movement and is a perfect pitch for Coors.
Slider: 2-7 pitch with slightly above average bite. Is his out pitch by name only, as he hung it quite a bit and the break can be inconsistent.
Velocities: FB (91-93), SL (82-83)
Overall Eval: Your typical middle reliever who would be entrusted with anything from the 5th to 7th innings. Solid reliever who pitches to contact and relies on his defense to make plays. Slider needs to be refined, but he should be able to help Colorado this coming season at some points.
9) Matt Gorgen
Age: 22
Org: Tampa Bay Rays
Build/Delivery: 6-0, 210. Small frame that is maxed out. Is a big guy with a thick base. Has a rock and fire, high effort delivery where he lands hard on his front foot and has a tendency to fly open. Comes from an over the top release. Looks like a bulldog.
Fastball: 4-seamer that has some late run in on righties and a little late sink. Command can be inconsistent and when he loses it, he loses it up.
Changeup: Good fade from lefties and good sink that he can throw for a strike. Would like to see him throw this pitch more.
Curveball: Power 12-6 with above average depth.
Slider: Tight 2-7 offering with good bite.
Velocities: FB (91-93), SL (83), CB (78), CU (83)
Overall Eval: Solid middle reliever. Fastball is still a little straight, but he shows enough diversification with his pitches to be able to be different each time out. Would like to see him settle on either a slider or curve though (prefer the curve). Likely a couple years away from being a contributor.
10) Blake Parker
Age: 24
Org: Chicago Cubs
Build/Delivery: 6-3, 225. Big frame that appears to be maxed out. Thick, strong lower half. Works primarily from the stretch. Has a violent head jerk. Comes from a high 3/4 release.
Fastball: Has some run in on righties and some sink. Has inconsistent command of the pitch and almost appears to overthrow it at times.
Slider: Sharp 2-7 pitch with some bite. Does not have good command of this pitch.
Curveball: Loopy 1-7 pitch with solid depth that he will hang at times. When thrown right, shows average tilt with good downward action. Will throw it 3-2.
Changeup: Good fade from lefties and good sink that looks like a fastball out of his hand and is better then both breaking pitches. Doesn't have good command of this pitch.
Velocities: FB (92-94), SL (83-86), CB (80-83), CU (86-88)
Overall Eval: Best case is a 10th or 11th reliever, a low leverage innings reliever. Granted, he may have just had a bad day, but I didn't see the ingredients for a solid middle reliever in him. Would like to see him on a good day to get a even better feel.
11) Daniel Moskos (LH)
Age: 23
Org: Pittsburgh Pirates
Build/Delivery: 6-1, 210. Medium frame that is maxed out. Strong, athletic build that almost looks like a LB. He comes from a high 3/4 release. He has a classic hip turn delivery where he shows his butt to the hitter and looks like he is pretty tough on lefties.
Fastball: Throws a 4-seamer and 2-seamer. The 4-seam has some sink with a little more oomph while his 2-seamer has good sink and some run in on lefties. Does not have good command of this pitch and seems to have little idea where it is going.
Slider: Sweeping 11-5 offering with slightly above average bite. Is almost like a slurve and it has solid depth to it. Can appear to only throw the pitch belt high for strikes and didn't have confidence in burying it.
Changeup: Fairly non-descript pitch that did not do much. Was a straight change that screamed hit me.
Velocities: FB (89-92), SL (83), CU (84-85)
Overall Eval: And to think, they took him over Wieters. Moskos was said to have a lights out SL in college, but it has regressed. He profiles as a 2nd lefty in a pen who can only pitch to lefties. He has a ways to go to reach that ceiling however.
There you have it. Thank you for taking the time for reading this book. Feel free to leave comments/suggestions on different things you saw in breaking this down or if you would like me to elaborate on a player.
