Scouting: Does Anyone Really Know?

Amateur scouting (any sport) is one of the most inexact sciences in this world. Scouts are constantly asked to evaluate a prospect and attempt to project them out 3 or 4 years down the road.

I got my 1st real attempt at doing this last year. The Rays just went through some of their minor league releases and within that were some guys I scouted:

RHP Kevin Boggan
RHP Jesse Darcy
RHP Jose Mejias
LHP Glenn Gibson

Let's look at what I said about these prospects and I will also list their 2008 and 2009 stats. All grades on 2-8 scouting scale.

Kevin Boggan:
Grade Given: 2
Stuff: FB (85-89), CB (75-76), SL (80-82), CU (75-76)
Acquired: 19th round pick out of Boston College (575th overall)
Comments: High, max effort delivery with limbs flying everywhere. Always felt that he just didn't have the stuff to be a big league prospect.
Stats '08 (Low A): 36-0, 1-4, 3.10, 72.2-70-8-16-55
Stats '09 (High A): 34-0, 2-6, 4.28, 54.2-64-5-16-36
Accurate Grade: Y

Jesse Darcy:
Grade Given: 3.5
Stuff: FB (87-91), SL (75-81), Knuckle Curve (71-76), CU (74-79)
Acquired: 38th round pick out of Manhattan College (1136th overall)
Comments: Somewhat projectable (6-4, 205 pound) frame. Don't see more velocity coming and hitters will adapt as he moves up.
Stats '08 (Low A): 29-19, 8-3, 3.05, 133-124-12-15-98
Stats '09 (High A): 22-16, 3-9, 5.24, 103-128-14-21-45
Accurate Grade: N. Had me fooled. Put up nothing short of a dominant season at Low A, showing above average command of all his offerings and even teased with a slider that looked to be major league average. Thought he would hit a bump at AA, but didn't see it coming at High A. Also shows how fragile a life as a minor league ballplayer is and if your a late round pick, don't have an off year.

Jose Mejias:
Grade Given: 2
Stuff: FB (88-92), CB (71-81), CU (72-76)
Acquired: International (Venezuela) by Phillies, then signed by Tampa Bay
Comments: Loses some velocity out of stretch. Has some toughness questions.
Stats '08 (Low A): 34-0, 3-2, 4.73, 59-59-7-27-33
Stats '09 (High A): 19-3, 1-2, 6.41, 46.1-58-11-11-30
Accurate Grade: Y

Glenn Gibson:
Grade Given: 4.5
Stuff: FB (83-88), CB (67-69), CU (76-80)
Acquired: 4th Round pick by Washington out of Center Moriches HS. Traded to Rays as lone return in Elijah Dukes trade.
Comments: Should gain weight (6-4, 195) as he ages. Fastball command is killing him, causing him to fall behind way too much. Above average curve movement wise with an average change.
Stats '08 (Low A): 22-12, 4-8, 7.44, 78.2-104-12-41-49
Stats '08 (SS): 10-0, 0-0, 6.65, 21.2-31-2-14-23
Stats '09 (SS): 14-3, 3-4, 6.89, 32.2-40-4-20-19
Accurate Grade: Hell N. I thought he was a back end starter thinking his command would return and he would add velocity. This is the real stunner when it comes to him: the year prior to being acquired by the Rays, he pitched at SS Vermont with the Nats and put up this line: 12-12, 4-3, 3.10, 58-47-3-15-58. He struck out a hitter an inning and showed good command. I always (and still) felt like his off-speed stuff was good enough to be a back-end guy, his fastball command just had to catch up and he was definitely still projectable. Oh well, I wasn't getting paid for that assesment I guess...

That is always the intriguing thing, to go back and check out your prior scouting reports (especially with guys in Low A) and see how they develop. Anyone can scout the Jason Heyward's (7.5 grade), Mike Stanton's (6.5) and Madison Bumgarner's (7). The ability to scout the fringe average guys and differentiate who will make it from who won't is the main separator.

Quick Note: The 3 guys on this Catfish team that most scouts seemed to like in my year there ('08) were these guys:

Alex Cobb (4.5, back-end starter to me, others saw a possible middle of the rotation guy)
'08 Stats (Low A): 25-25, 9-7, 3.29, 139.2-113-16-35-97
'09 Stats (High A): 24-23, 8-5, 3.03, 124.2-116-6-31-107

Austin Hinkle (4.5, solid middle reliever in majors)
'08 Stats (Low A): 33-0, 3-4, 2.51, 46.2-32-2-19-67
'09 Stats (High A): 36-3, 2-6, 3.53, 74-61-7-36-65

Mike McCormick (4, back-up catcher to me, some saw a future starter)
'08 Stats (Low A): .216-.276-.365, 375, 13-49, 31-93, 2-1
'09 Stats (Low A): .165-.272-.252, 218, 4-13, 29-76, 1-0
'09 Stats (High A): .170-.261-.321, 106, 3-8, 11-35, 2-2

Still want to be a scout?