Sunday, May 24, 2009

CHC @ SD

  • Josh Geer was on the mound for the Padres and the 25 year old has a 6-3, 195 pound frame that has room to add more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fastball at 83-88 (sat at 86-87), a slider at 77-81 and a changeup at 73-76. His fastball is a 2-seam with plus sink and fade. His changeup moves similar to his fastball. Slider is loopy and almost looks like a CB. Works primarily on the outside with almost all his offerings, but will come inside every once in awhile. Still a back-end/spot starter type.
  • Randy Wells saw his scoreless streak finally end. The 26 year old who is 6-3 230 has a frame that can still add some muscle. From an over the top release, he featured a fastball at 88-92, a slider at 82-87 and a changeup at 82-86. His fastball is a 2-seam that has solid sink and fade. HIs changeup is a plus pitch and has great sink and fade and looks like a FB out of his hand. His slider is a solid average to above average offering with good bite and depth. Very clean delivery and uses his frame to generate a great downhill plane for his pitches. He is likely a ceiling as a # 4 starter, and likely settles in as a multi-inning reliever and spot starter for the Cubs.
  • Greg Burke is a 6-4, 215 pound 26 year old who has a big frame that can still add more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 90-91, a slider at 81-82 and a changeup at 84. His slider has good bite, but is very inconsistent with it's bite. His fastball shows some fade, but not much. The change was a show pitch that did almost nothing. All his offerings are average and he has above average command, so if he was going to stick in the majors with a team, it would have to be the Padres with their massive park.
  • Bobby Scales is a 31 year old who stands 6-0 and weighs 185 pounds. The switch-hitting righty thrower has a medium frame with room to add more muscle. He has a fairly straight-up stance and wiggles most of his body and the bat casually as he waits for the pitcher to begin his wind up. Utilizes a toe turn for his trigger. Is a hustle guy who can play a lot of positions in the field. He is a temporary filler (AAA emergency guy) type who could probably be a decent hitter (.260), but will add no power and not a whole lot of speed. Classic tweener whose age will work against him in attempts to land a utility job. Closest comparison is also his highest upside in my eyes: Marco Scutaro.
  • Luke Gregerson is a 25 year old who stands 6-3, 200. He has a big frame that still has ability to add muscle. From a low 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 90, a changeup at 78 and a slider at 82-84. His slider has good depth and bite and shows late break making it an above average (and flashing plus) pitch. His fastball moves like a 2-seam and shows good fade with the changeup being nearly identical, just slower. A guy who impressed me tonight throwing above average slider after above average slider, he has a ceiling of a set-up man.
  • Carlos Marmol is a 26 year old who stands 6-2, 180. His medium frame has a lot of room to add more muscle, especially in the lower part. From a low 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 94-96 and a slider at 83-85. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His slider has great late bite and is very sharp, a true plus pitch. He is a future closer if he stays healthy.
  • Edward Mujica is a 25 year old who stands 6-3, 215. His medium frame can add a little bit more muscle, but not much. He showed a fastball at 93-94, a slider at 82-83 and a splitter at 88. His slider was flat in this outing while his splitter also did nothing. What gets him by is plus command of a plus 4-seam fastball. Set-up guy is his top potential, but would expect him to settle in as a middle reliever.

2 charts tomorrow. Still haven't decided about going to church (which means I am probably going to sleep in sadly).

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Yankees 12, Boyertown Metz 3

The Yankees won again against Boyertown without 2 of our better hitters. I was 2-3 with 2 walks, 2 runs and 3 stolen bases. Our next game is Tuesday.

Chart Observations: TB @ FLA

  • Andy Sonnanstine started for the Rays and is a 26 year old who stands 6-3 and weighs 190. Sonnanstine's medium frame can still add muscle, especially in the lower half. Sonnanstine attacked hitters with a cutter at 86-89, a fastball at 85-90, a slider at 77-80, a curveball at 73-81 and a changeup at 82 from a high 3/4 release. His cutter has good sink and cut and is an above average offering. His curveball is a big breaking 12-6 that has solid bite and is a tick above average. His fastball is a 2-seamer with good fade and is a tick above average as well. His slider breaks early and has good depth, but is just an average offering. His changeup showed some good fade, but only threw it once and he will sometimes drop down to throw a cutter. Sonnanstine's control is plus, but his command is just above average as he has a tendency to leave cutters in the middle of the plate. He is a back of the rotation starter and is likely pitching at his ceiling now.
  • Ricky Nolasco opposed him and got optioned to AAA after the game for his performance. Nolasco is just 25 and stands 6-2 and weighs 220 pounds, though he didn't look it. His medium frame still has room for more muscle and projection. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fatball at 88-93, a curveball at 74-76, a slider at 83-84 and a changeup at 83-84. Nolasco's fastball was a 2-seamer with some sink to it and sat at 89-91. This has to be a concern, as I thought he was closer to 92-94 last season. His curveball is a 12-6 offering that shows good bite and can be a strikeout pitch. His slider shows good late break and tends to go hard out of the zone. It's a 3-7 type pitch that he only showed an ability to put in 1 spot: down and in at a lefties ankles (or down and out to a righties ankles). His struggles are more command related then stuff related (except for fastball velocity). Both his slider and curveball are still above average offerings and his changeup is average. His fastball is just average right now due to his lack of command. His control is fine, but he leaves too many fastballs in the middle of the plate. He tended to fall behind hitters and that caused him to throw more hittable fastballs. He also struggled to throw his off-speed stuff for strikes. He should be fine to return to his role of a # 2 starter after a quick refresher course. He is similar to Brett Myers in that he is having the same type of issues and the Marlins are hoping this course of action works.
  • Reid Brignac is a 23 year old who is 6-3 195 pounds. The lefty hitter, righty thrower has a medium frame that still has projection and can likely add at least 10 more pounds of muscle. He features a slightly crouched stance and is open. His trigger is a step in followed by a toe turn and brings the bat up and cocks it back. Brignac (only saw 2 at bats) has the looks of a guy that can control the strike zone and is a line drive hitter. He doesn't project for too much power and probably at his best will have average power for a SS. His issue is can he stay at SS? Didn't see enough of his glove to know for sure, but if he doesn't, his only real option is 2B or utility. I personally see a utility player, but one that can be used well with a platoon. Want to see him some more to get a better read on him, he is almost the hitting equivalent of Justin Masterson to me and am not sure where he fits best.
  • Brett Hayes is a 25 year old who stands 6-1 and weighs 200 pounds. The righty hitter has a medium frame with room to add a little more muscle. He has a slightly closed and slightly crouched stance that looks similar to Dustin Pedroia's setup wise. Moves bat up and strides as a trigger. He came up as a catcher, but subbed in at 1st base last night. His bat will not play at 1st, as he lunged to get his 1st base hit in the only at bat he had. He doesn't look to have much power potential and would have below average power for a catcher and poor power for a 1st basemen. All his usefulness is going to be tied up in his ability to catch, as his bat won't play well at 1st.
  • Dave Davidson took over a new role as the bain of my existence. Davidson is a 25 year old left hander who stands 6-1, 200 pounds and has a medium frame that is pretty close to maxed out. After being waived by the Pirates (not a good sign), the Marlins picked him up. He showed a fastball at 90-93, a changeup at 80-88 and a curveball at 76-79 from a 3/4 release. The changeup was the tough pitch to identify, as most sat at 86-88 and that is terrible separation. It looks like a fastball out of his hand, but that's because it is only two miles per hour slower and doesn't have much action. Curveball is an average offering and is a little too loopy for my taste. His command is below average and he had trouble getting ahead and staying ahead. His best case scenario (needs a big bump in command) is to be a LOOGY, but he is likely a 4-A pitcher, but at least he has a hit in the majors.
  • Brian Sanches is a 30 year old with a 6-0, 195 pound frame. His frame has room to add a lot more muscle, but it likely won't be happening. He featured a fastball at 87-90, a slider at 77-83 and threw one split (81) and one curveball (74). His fastball is an average 2-seamer that has some fade to it. His slider is a 3-7 pitch and is slightly above average with solid bite and depth. His split showed good dive and fade, but he appeared to only use it as a show to a lefty, preferring to attack most hitters with FB-SL. 4-A reliever to me, as he has above average command but no true plus pitch to turn to.
  • Renyel Pinto attacked from a 3/4 release with a fastball at 87-92, a changeup at 79-81 and a slider at 78-81. His fastball is a 4-seam that has some run on it due to his release point. His changeup has plus drop and looks like a fastball out of his hand, but he struggles to command it. The slider is a frisbee slider that is a little loopy, but is a good pitch to lefties.
  • Kiko Calero was 88-90 with his fastball and 77-80 with his slider. His slider continues to be sharp and is a plus pitch, but his fastball is just average.
  • Dale Thayer made his big league debut for the Rays. The 28 year old who stands 6-0, 195 pounds has a medium frame that still has room to add about 5 more pounds of muscle. He has a low 3/4, almost sidearm release and showed a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 80-83 and a changeup at 84. Thayer's slider was inconsistent and sat anywhere from below average to above average. The above average sliders were sharp late breakers with great bite and depth, while the below average ones just hung. His fastball has great fade and looks like a plus pitch. He pitches to the middle of the plate too much. He starts his fastball on the outside corner and it finds its way to the middle of the plate. Changeup is just a show pitch. Looks like a middle reliever to me who is best utilized in 1 inning stints (pitched 3 innings in this one, was 93-94 in the 1st, 91-92 in the 3rd and his bad sliders were later).
  • Ross Gload was 76-80 with his fastball. Future Hall of Famer.
  • Have to love interleague play for something like this: Ross Gload vs. Dale Thayer. But Gload was pitching and Thayer was hitting. Gload got Thayer to break his bat (he is a rookie just called up yesterday, so he is going to have to apologize to someone for breaking one of their bats) and hit a comebacker. Very entertaining stuff that is funny to think that it is actually happening.
  • Good day to be a pitcher hitting, every pitcher that had their spot in the order come up got to hit for themselves. I can go without seeing a guy like Pinto or Davidson (even though he got a hit) swinging for themselves every game. At least they proved why they didn't make it to the bigs as hitters.

ARI @ OAK

  • Trevor Cahill is a 21 year old who stands 6-3 and weighs 210 pounds. He has a medium to big frame that can add a lot more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a 2-seam sinker at 85-92 (typically sat around 89-91), a slider at 83, a curveball at 77-79 and a changeup at 77-81. His fastball showed great sink and fade and is the first I have seen that is comparable to Brandon Webb's when it is on. His changeup is his best off-speed offering and is above average/borderline plus with it great fade and it looks like a fastball out of his hand. His slider was flat and he only threw one. His curveball is a 12-6 offering that is more of a get ahead pitch then a put away pitch. Cahill still has some issues in regards to commanding his stuff within the strike zone and will likely have a little steeper learning curve for command then his peers due to the sheer movement of his fastball. He is a groundball machine with a plus fastball and changeup. He liked to use FB-CU the 1st time through the order and then began mixing his breaking pitches in. Cahill profiles best as a middle of the rotation starter for a contender. It isn't hard to project him to be sitting at 92-94 with his sinker with his frame. It isn't blasphemous to say he could be the next Webb.
  • Billy Buckner opposed him. The 25 year old who stands 6-2 and 215 pounds has a medium frame with a lot of room to add muscle. From an over the top release, he showed a fastball at 87-92, a curveball at 76-82 and a changeup at 80-85. His changeup shows some consistent sink, but the fade is inconsistent. His fastball has some movement, but the sink is generated more from him generating a great downhill plane to throw his pitches. His curveball is a 12-6 pitch that shows some bite, but doesn't consistently finish it causing it to hang up in the zone. A classic tweener, I think he is best suited as a swingman in a pen giving you some spot starts. He is still projectable, but you have to wonder just how much more could be there. Likely a guy that bounces between the majors and AAA.
  • Craig Breslow made his 1st appearance with the A's and showed a fastball at 87 and a slider at 83 to get his hitter to hit into a double play.
  • Esmerling Vasquez is 25 years old and stands 6-1, 175 pounds. His medium frame has a ton of room to add muscle and he is very lanky with long arms, which could make it difficult for him to consistently repeat his mechanics. He threw one fastball at 93 to get his man out.
  • Clay Zavada features a mustache that would make Rollie Fingers proud. He is 24 years old and is 6-1 195 pounds with a medium frame that can add more muscle, especially in the lower body. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 87, a slider at 78 and a changeup at 78-80. Zavada's changeup shows good fade and sink and is an above average offering. His slider is a 10-5 type of pitch, but choked the only he threw. Looks like a rare lefty that may be able to get out both righties and lefties due to his above average curve. Profiles best as a middle reliever and could be a teams # 1 lefty out of the pen.
  • Santiago Casilla is 28 years old and has a medium (6-0, 200) frame that is maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 91-95, a slider at 83-86 and a changeup at 85. Casilla's changeup is a show pitch and he likes to go his sharp, late breaking slider to get strikeouts with 2 strikes. His fastball shows a little 2-seam movement. His command is average and that is what is holding him back from being a strong set up guy.
  • Jon Rauch is a 30 year old imposing presence (6-11, 290). For such a big guy, he doesn't show great velocity from his maxed out frame, sitting at 91-93 with his fastball, throwing a curve at 75 and a changeup at 85-87. He generates a great downhill plane for his pitches, but his fastball is a straight 4-seam. His changeup is fairly straight and doesn't have a lot of action to it other then the velocity difference. His curveball is a 12-6 offering. He shows above average command and is a solid middle reliever who can set-up and close every once in awhile.

NYM @ BOS

  • Johan Santana got the start for the Mets and is a 30 year old who stands 6-0 and 21o pounds. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 89-93, a slider at 80-86 and a changeup at 79-84. His fastball has great movement and goes away from right handers. It is a plus offering. His changeup looks exactly like a his fastball out of his hand and then just disappears. It has great sink and fade and is truly a plus plus pitch. He has enough command of this pitch to throw it in any count, which really isn't fair. His slider has good late break and has some depth to it. He works from the 3rd base side of the rubber. Amongst the top 3 starters in baseball and may very well be the best.
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka was back from the DL and pitched fairly well. The 28 year old who stands 6 feet tall and weighs 185 pounds featured a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 81-85, a changeup at 82-84, a splitter at 81-83 and a cutter at 86-90 from a high 3/4 release. He has a typical Japanese windup, pausing at the balance point and when he takes a step back to start his windup. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His slider is slower then his cutter and has some good side to side movement, but the downward break is inconsistent. His cutter has good movement and moves enough to avoid hitters from squaring it up consistently. His changeup has some good drop and a little fade. Probably fits best as a # 4 on a contender due to his high pitch counts. If he could ever figure out how to throw quality strikes and not walk a lot of guys, he has the pitches to be an above average # 3 starter.
  • Justin Masterson fired 3 innings of relief today. The massive (6-6, 250) right hander featured a fastball at 89-95 and a slider at 82-85 from a low 3/4 release. Masterson has a big frame that appears to be maxed out and this is probably all you get from him from a stuff standpoint. He has a very quiet delivery until he breaks, where he gets his whole body into it and uses his 250 pounds to generate his velocity. His fastball has tremendous side to side movement and also shows some sink. He shows a rare ability to both command a pitch with that type of movement and to add and subtract to it for more movement or more speed as he desires. His slider is an above average offering with good depth, but it can be inconsistent. Masterson works painfully slow once runners reach base, but showed quicker to the plate then I thought, as I had him at 1 second on a fastball. Masterson's best role is probably that as a bridge reliever from the starter to the closer.
  • Daniel Murphy is a 24 year old who stands 6 foot 3 and weighs 210 pounds. The lefty hitter/righty thrower has a medium to big frame with room to grow. He has a slightly crouched stance and is hunched over. He leans back on his bat leg and wiggles his elbows around as the pitcher is going through his motion. He has the conventional trigger with a step and bringing his ahnds back. He holds the bat almost horizontal just above his shoulder. He is a talented offensive player, showing an ability to work a count to get a pitch he wants, plus bat control and projects to be a 15-20 home run guy in the majors at worst. His biggest issue is where to play him defensively. He has had a lot of struggles in the OF this season and will never have the required power to be a 1B (or the glove to offset the lack of power). A defensive tweener + being a professional hitter usually spells a pinch hitter. I anticipate him sticking in either an outfield corner or at 1B once Carlos Delgado is gone and look to see him hitting .280-.360-.450 with some stolen bases.
  • Bobby Parnell throws gas. The 23 year old who stands 6-4 and weighs 200 pounds showed an explosive 4-seam fastball at 96-100 from a high 3/4 release. He may have thrown one changeup that was average. He has a big frame that appears to be maxed out. He shows very easy velocity from a very clean windup and looks to have the looks of a future closer. Special arm.
  • Daniel Bard is a 23 year old who stands 6-4 and weighs 200 pounds. He has a long and lean frame that has room to add a lot more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball from 96-97 and a curveball at 81-82. He battles his command from pitch to pitch and from batter to batter. The curveball showed great bite when used as a strikeout pitch, but flattened out when he tried to throw it for a strike. The Mets got some good swings on him, telling me he may not be quite ready for late inning work, but he is another big arm who has a bright future, likely as a set-up man.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

PIT @ WAS

  • Craig Stammen made his major league debut tonight. The 24 year old stands 6 foot 3 and 210 pounds. The strike thrower (only 8 walks and 14 strikeouts in 40 innings at AAA Syracuse) featured a fastball at 88-92, a curveball at 78-81 and a changeup at 81-85. He has a medium to big frame that has a lot of projectability left. He attacks from an over the opt release and some cocking action in his arm right before the release. His fastball is a moving 2-seam that has good sink and helps him force groundballs. His change also features good sink and fade and is an above average offering. His curveball is a 12-6 that is more of an early strike pitch then an out pitch. Above average offering as well. His command was plus, as he showed an ability to move the ball in and out and up and down all night until the 7th. He shows a very clean delivery apart from the cocking arm and is very projectable there as well. It isn't inconceivable to see him sitting at 90-92 and touching 94 in a couple years. Overall, he is a back of the rotation starter right now with the potential to be a middle of the rotation starter if he adds some more velocity or develops a true out pitch, as his strikeout numbers show an inability to finish hitters.
  • Ian Snell opposed him. The 5 foot 11, 200 pounder featured a fastball at 90-95, a slider at 81-88 and a changeup at 84-85 from a high 3/4 release. He has a smaller frame that is maxed out. He has almost a whip-like type arm action. His slider is sharp with good late bite and the bottom falls out of it. A true 2-plane pitch when on and it is a plus offering. His changeup has a little fade, flashes sink and is more of a show pitch then a pitch to get hitters out. It is an average offering and does look like a fastball when it comes out of his hand. Fastball has a little movement, but not much. He struggles with his command from batter to batter. First strike is very important for him and he tends to fall behind guys 2-0 or 3-1 and puts them in fastball counts. Overall, he is a middle of the rotation starter right now and if he can refine his command issues and also make a little bit more development in his changeup and gain that as a consistent pitch, then he can be an average # 2 starter.
  • Jason Jaramillo is a 26 year old who stands 6-0 and weighs 200 pounds. The switch hitting catcher has a medium frame that still has some projection to it. He has a very quiet setup and stance and keeps his hands still throughout. His trigger is just a toe turn. He will never hit more much, if any, power. He shows some ability as a catch and throw and also an ability to hit for a little average from both sides of the plate. He is a career backup and the question the Pirates will be asking themselves when Ryan Doumit comes off the DL is whether or not to keep him or Robinzon Diaz with the big club.
  • Julian Tavarez is a 35 year old who stands 6-2 and weighs 195 pounds. He has a high 3/4 release and attacked hitters with a 2-seam fastball at 88-92, a slider at 79-83 and a changeup at 82-85. Tavarez still gets plus movement to his 2 seam and continues to generate groundballs. His changeup shows good fade, but his slider has flattened out and is a below average offering. Tavarez is teetering between the brink of being a mop-up reliever and being retired.
  • Tom Gorzelanny is back in the big leagues as a reliever. The 6-2, 200 pound 26 year old featured a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 79-82, a curveball at 76 and a changeup at 83-85. His fastball is a straight 4-seam while his change shows good fade and is an average offering. His slider showed some decent late break and his 1 curve had decent bite. Really, his fastball is above average and all his other pitches are average offerings, with the changeup showing a little better. He comes from a high 3/4 release and kicks his right foot out as he comes down from his balance point. He also really battles his command from pitch to pitch and batter to batter and looks to be like someone who throwing strikes will always be an issue for. He profiles best as a multiple inning reliever if he can get his command sorted out, but should be a good 1 inning reliever (was good in his first inning, but got knocked around in the 2nd). I think his upside is that of a Rafael Perez when he was having good years.
  • Jesse Chavez is a 25 year old who stands 6-2 and weighs 170 pounds. He has a medium frame that still has a little projection left to it. From a high 3/4 release, he attacked hitters with a fastball at 94-96, threw 1 slider at 90 and a changeup at 85-86. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His changeup features some fade and sink and is a tick above average. His slider is a 2-plane breaker and is also above average. When I saw him 2 years ago, I thought his upside was that of a middle reliever. But, his fastball has jumped from 92-93 to 94-96 and is now looking at being a set-up man and potential closer. Chavez does battle his command every once in awhile, but it should come around, as his mechanics are very clean. Probably will settle in as a 7th inning reliever for a contender.
  • Joel Hanrahan got the save and is a 6 foot 4, 250 pound behemoth on the mound. The 27 year old featured a straight, hard 4-seam fastball at 95-96 and a slider that was unusually flat at 85-86. He still looks like a closer to me.

2 scores tomorrow. Got the Mets (Santana) vs. Red Sox (Matsuzaka) and the Diamondbacks (Buckner) against the Athletics (Cahill).

Chart Observations: CLE @ KC

  • Fausto Carmona started for Cleveland really struggled commanding his stuff early. From a 3/4 release, Carmona attacks hitters with a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 81-84 and a changeup at 84-87. Carmona's fastball is a plus pitch because of its great movement down and away from lefties (or in to righties), but he has some issues commanding it due to its movement. He is a pitcher that needs to aim at the middle of the plate and allow the natural movement of the ball to take it to the corners. Carmona's slider is a fringe average pitch. His changeup is an above average offering that has similar fade and sink as his fastball, though he also has some issues commanding that pitch. He has average command of his stuff. He is currently a # 3 starter unless his command makes drastic strides and then he can be a # 2, which is his ceiling.
  • Gil Meche opposed him. Meche featured a fastball at 92-96, a curveball at 72-80, a cutter at 84-89 and a changeup at 83-87 from an over the top release. Meche's fastball is a plus pitch due to its velocity. His curveball is another plus offering with its 12-6 action and the big disparity in velocity between the two. His cutter is an above average offering that really gets in on the hands of left handers when it's right. His changeup is just a change of pace pitch to lefties to ensure they can't just sit on the fastball and is an average offering. His command is everywhere from average to plus from appearance to appearance. Meche is a strong # 2 right now and has the ceiling to be an ace if he can consistently command his stuff.
  • Aaron Laffey has shifted to the bullpen. You would think a starter that sat in the high 80's from the left side would have a difficult transition, but he has been throwing very well. From a high 3/4 release, Laffey attacked with a 2-seam fastball at 84-86, a 4-seam fastball at 87-90 and a slider at 79-82 (which he only threw to Mark Teahen). Laffey's fastball is average and his slider is a frisbee slider that is above average. He has some pretty good deception in his wind up and seems to hide the ball from lefties very well. With that taken into consideration, he has a shot to be a groundball generating LOOGY. Without seeing his changeup, it is hard to say if he is a guy that can consistently get out righties and lefties. Being a former starter, I would say its a good bet for him to have a ceiling as a multi-inning reliever, but one you would rather pitch when behind.
  • Rafael Betancourt featured a fastball at 93-95, a slider at 83-85 and a changeup at 88. Betancourt is a solid set-up man, as he showed above average command of his 2 main offerings. His fastball is a pretty straight 4-seam and his slider has great bite to it and it just drops out of the strike zone. Pitching at his ceiling right now.
  • Kerry Wood closed out the game and featured a 4-seam fastball at 93-96, a cut fastball at 88-92 and a curveball at 79-81. He still has a strong deuce, but it is just above average now. His cutter is an average offering that has just enough movement on it to make hitters pause a little bit. His 4-seam is a plus offering due to its velocity. He showed average command this outing and really struggled to get a release point on his cutter early. A solid closer, but not one of the elite's and he is currently pitching at his ceiling.
  • Jamey Wright featured a fastball at 89-93, a curveball at 78-79 and a cutter at 89 from a high 3/4 release. Wright has been having success out of the pen, but I don't see it lasting. Wright's fastball is a tick above average, his curveball is above average and his 1 cutter was below average. Wright tends to allow balls in play, so he will need a strong defense behind him to be good over the course of a full season. His command is above average, but can desert him at times, especially with his curveball. A solid middle reliever, but he is miscast as a set-up guy.
  • Sidney Ponson lost his job in the rotation and is now their long reliever. He attacked with a fastball at 88-92, a slider at 81-84, a changeup at 84-86 and a curveball at 76-77 from a high 3/4 release. All of his pitches are average offerings. His command can be erratic from appearance to appearance and even from batter to batter, which severely limits his use as a long reliever if he allows a lot of base runners. A guy that is likely pitching with his last chance at being in the bigs. Upside is that of a swingman, one that can start for you occasionally when minor injuries dictate it and that can finish some blowouts by throwing multiple innings.
  • Robinson Tejeda's big arm has landed him in Kansas City. He attacks hitters from a 3/4 release with a fastball at 92-97, a slider at 80-87 and a changeup at 81-86. Tejeda's fastball is a plus offering and he shows above average command of it. His slider is a below average offering that flashes above average. He has a tendency to throw spinners and is not consistent with any part of throwing his slider (release point, velocity, command). His change is also below average that flashes average and he has the same issues with his slider. He has always been looking for an off speed pitch to complement his fastball and needs to refine these offerings to reach his upside of a set-up man. Tejeda reaches back when he gets ahead 2 strikes (which may be part of the problem with the off speed offerings), hitting 96-97 on the gun during these times.

Got the Pirates-Nats at 7 tonight featuring Ian Snell and the major league debut of Craig Stammen.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Yankees 15, Jordan Creek 4

We won our latest game 15-4 tonight. I started at 2nd base and led off and went 3-4 with a walk, triple and 2 stolen bases. Of course, my one out came after someone on our team asked if I ever got out, because that is the way it always happens. 1st at bat was a jam shot over the shortstop's head for a 1B. I then stole 2nd and 3rd. 2nd at bat was a walk. 3rd at bat was a line drive single over the shortstop's head. 4th at bat was a shot to right center that went for a triple. 5th at bat I hit a pussy groundout right at the 3rd base bag for an easy double play. Made all my plays in the field and am getting much more comfortable out there again.

Next game is Saturday (I think).

Chart Observations: CHC @ STL

Not much to report here:
  • Ted Lilly attacked hitters with a fastball at 82 (YES, 82) to 91, a slider at 81-85, a changeup at 76-83, a soft curve at 71-74 and threw 1 harder curve at 79. Lilly likes to add and subtract to his fastball to keep hitters off balance. The 82 mile per hour fastball was a 3-1 pitch to Joe Thurston, a lefty stick, so it would make zero sense for it to be a change and had someone else double check my thought on that. Lilly really doesn't have a real plus pitch. His slider is average and sometimes acts more like a cutter. His changeup is also average and has some sink to it. His curveball is above average, but is more of a strike throwing pitch then a swing and miss pitch. His command is above average and allows him to get more out of his stuff. That being said, he can be very erratic from hitter to hitter in both velocity (whether planned or not) and his ability to hit his spots. A solid middle of the rotation starter, but he is a guy that there isn't any in between with. When he's done, the hitters will be jumping all over him.
  • Kevin Gregg pitched the 8th and showed a fastball at 92-94, a slider at 80-84 and a splitter at 86. Gregg was acquired for Jose Ceda, who features lights out stuff as a reliever with command questions. I was a big Ceda fan, but watching Gregg makes me understand why the Cubs made the deal. Gregg's fastball is above average and his slider is a plus pitch that flashes plus plus, as it is a sharp breaker with good late bite. He made Albert Pujols look silly and that is very difficult to do. Gregg's splitter is just an average offering that is more of a show pitch to lefties. Solid set-up guy, but I would prefer a guy like Carlos Marmol as the closer with Gregg's above average command of his stuff setting him up.
  • Joel Pineiro fired a 92 pitch complete game. He showed a fastball at 88-91, a slider at 84-88, a changeup at 84-85 and a curveball at 78-80. I have no idea how the Cubs didn't get more then 3 hits off of him. His fastball is above average due to its good movement. His slider was also above average and showed some good late break. his changeup and curveball are average offerings that flash above average. He has above average command, but it's not like he was painting the corners and was leaving quite a few pitches in the middle of the plate. His movement allowed him to get away with quite a bit, but it is still difficult to be consistenly successful when pitching in the middle of the plate as much as he did. A solid back of the rotation starter (# 4), but don't be expecting more complete game shutouts.

Chart Observations: OAK @ TB

  • James Shields started for the Rays and had exquisite command of his stuff. Shields featured a fastball at 88-92, a changeup at 80-84, a cutter at 83-86 and a curveball at 74-78. Shields attacks hitters from an over the top release and, as with many who come from that release, shows an above average curveball. His change is a plus-plus pitch that I didn't think he threw enough in this game (but still fired 8.1 shutout innings) and his cutter is just average. His fastball is above average due to his command. He is a # 2 for a contender.
  • Josh Outman opposed him and featured a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 80-83, a changeup at 79-86, a soft curveball at 72-75 and a hard curveball at 76-81 from a high 3/4 release that is almost over the top. Outman liked to use the soft curve early in counts to try and get a cheap strike and would use the hard curve as more of a strikeout pitch. Outman has shown himself very well the 2 times I have seen him, but has left early in both outings due to a high pitch count. Outman has good control, but struggles to command his stuff within the strike zone, causing him to pitch behind and rack up big pitch counts. Potential to be a # 2 starter with a big bump in command, but probably settles in as a middle of the rotation starter.
  • Michael Wuertz was 89-90 with his fastball and 82-86 with his slider from an over the top release. Wuertz's slider is a plus pitch due to it's sharp, late breaking action making it difficult for hitters to square or recognize quickly.
  • Andrew Bailey was 91-95 with his fastball, 88-92 with his cutter and 75-77 with his curveball from an over the top release. The curveball is an above average offering. This is the 1st time I have seen him where he has thrown more curves then cutters.
  • Santiago Casilla was 92-95 with his fastball, 83-86 with his slider and threw a change at 86 from a 3/4 release. Casilla has a max-effort delivery and relies on his strong legs to generate velocity. His slider is an above average pitch that has flashed plus due to it's sharp late break, but he has had some issues commanding it. His change is more of a show-me pitch then anything that can get hitters out and is a below average offering. Casilla's fastball is above average and features a little tailing action as well. Solid middle reliever who, if he can refine his command, could be a set-up guy.
  • Russ Springer was 89-91 with his fastball, 84 with the 2 cutters he threw and a curveball at 79 from a high 3/4 release. Solid middle reliever.
  • J.P. Howell was at 85-88 with his fastball, 79-81 with his curveball and threw a changeup at 80 from an over the top release. Howell is unique in that his fastball is just average, but he could be a set-up guy due to his plus-plus curveball and above average change. He also has plus command of all his pitches and looks ready to continue building on his breakout year last year. Solid set-up guy. Only worry is that when he doesn't have great command of his off-speed stuff, he is very hittable, as his deception can only help so much.
  • Dan Wheeler faced 2 hitters and was 87-88 with his fastball, 80 with his slider and 75 with his curveball. The slider and curve are above average offerings and he is another Tampa Bay reliever who gets by more on command then stuff. Don't know how long he can keep this up as he is another whose fastball will get pounded if there is any regression to the off speed stuff.
  • Joe Nelson featured a fastball at 85-87 and a vulcan changeup at 75-78. He is another one of those command and control guys and his change didn't have the same break as it usually does. He also struggled to get ahead of hitters and his deception did not help him when hitters know an 85-87 mile per hour fastball is coming. Solid middle reliever, but I think he is a little over extended as a guy that comes in to hold a lead.
  • Aaron Cunningham is a 5-11 205 pound 23 year old outfielder. He is a right handed hitter and has a fairly prototypical stance with a slight crouch and is a little open. He also has a little bat wiggle and for a trigger, he strides and moves his hands back. Very conventional hitter. He has a medium frame that is maxed out. He is not plus on any tool, but is no worse then average on any tool. He has average power potential, he shows an ability to be able to put the ball in play. He is an above average runner. If this sounds like the profile to a 4th OF, it is. He doesn't have the speed to play CF consistenly or the power to play a corner.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

ARI @ FLA

Switched with a full-timer because he is a Rays fan, which is just as good as I have already seen Shields and Outman
  • Josh Johnson was on the bump for the Marlins. The 25 year old who stands 6 foot 7 and weights 230 pounds looked very good. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fastball at 91-97, a slider at 84-88 and a changeup at 87-88. His fastball is a straight 4-seam, his plus slider is a 2-7, 3-8 type pitch that has tremendous late downward bite. His changeup works as more of a show-me to lefties and fades away from them, but doesn't really change height wise. He likes to throw back-door sliders to lefties when ahead in the count. He was 93-96 most of the game. His frame is pretty close to maxed out, as he has big tree trunks for legs that allow him to generate a lot of his power. He rocks back and forth a little in his windup. Johnson is an ace. He hasn't been heard from very much by the media, but he is amongst the top 10 pitchers in baseball. Don't know if there is anything else there other then trying to improve the changeup.
  • Jon Garland opposed him and also looked very good. The guy that has been around forever, but is only just 29, is 6 foot 6 and 210 pounds. He looks just like he did when he came up and there is still room for projection onto his frame, but he likely won't be getting any bigger. He attacks hitters with a 2-seam fastball at 86-91 (mostly at 88-89, the 86 pitch he took something off to get greater movement and struck out Hanley Ramirez looking), a cutter at 85-89, a changeup at 78-81 and a slider at 82-84. The cutter is his 2nd best pitch, but it is only an average offering. His other 2 pitches are also just average, though the change flashed above average. He will throw inside and features great command of his stuff. His change fades away from left handers with a little sink and looks like a fastball out of his hand. Slider is a 2-9 pitch that has more downward movement then the cutter. Garland is what he is, a middle of the rotation starter when he has command and a good defense and a back-end starter when he is struggling with his command. An underrated innings eater.
  • Renyel Pinto was the 1st out of the pen for the Marlins and continues to make me look pretty stupid for thinking he could be a late inning reliever. He was 90-91 with his fastball and 80-81 with his change. His lack of consistent command really hurts him, as he hit Miguel Montero with the 1st pitch he threw. With his above average change, he can get righties out, but doesn't get many opportunities to do that. Pinto is a 6-4, 215 pounder whose frame is maxed out and he also features some very big legs allowing him to generate power. His frame doesn't look as good as Johnson's, meaning he may have some extra weight there that can lead to the injuries he has suffered. He comes at hitters from a low 3/4 release. If he can ever be a guy that lives in the strike zone consistenly, he can be a late inning guy. But, he will likely settle in as a middle reliever.
  • Kiko Calero continues to be a slider first pitcher. This outing he was 77-78 with his slider. And that was all he threw. To 2 hitters. I know he has had success before for an entire season, but I still can't believe someone can get by with just this pitch once the scouting reports get out, as it is just above average. His plus command of it helps.
  • Juan Gutierrez is a 6-3, 210 pounder who comes at you from a high 3/4 release. He is another guy with tree trunks for legs and also looks to be carrying a little bit of bad weight. The 25 year old featured a fastball at 94-96, a slider at 82, a curveball at 78 and a change at 83. The fastball is plus, but the slider appears to be the most promising of his other offerings, as it flashes plus. His command is still a tad below average, but it is improving. A guy who could be a closer, but will likely settle into a middle relief role due to struggles in command and his secondary offerings.
  • Leo Nunez attacks hitters from a 3/4 release with a fastball at 92-94, a slider at 81 and a changeup from 81-85. The changeup features some good action and is a slightly above average offering. His fastball is plus. He reminds me a little bit of Juan Cruz. He also features those types of command issues though and he doesn't look to be a guy to go multiple innings as a bridge to the closer. A solid set-up guy as he continues to refine his command, with a shot at becoming a solid closer.
  • Brian Sanches has bounced around from team to team and Florida is the latest to give him a try. Sanches attacks guys from a high 3/4 release that is almost over the top and features a fastball at 87-90, a slider at 83-84 and a splitter at 80. The fastball and split are below average offerings, with the slider being average. He showed above average command of his below average stuff, but all that makes you, at your best, is an average reliever. Average relievers are a dime a dozen and I think Sanches will continue riding the bus (though the ride from Albuquerque to Florida is quite a long one).
  • Chris Coghlan is a 6-1 195 pound 23 year old lefty hitter. Coghlan's MO was his offense and it appears his offense will need to carry him, as he started tonight's game in left field despite coming up as a second basemen. He features a medium frame that can add a lot more muscle and it isn't out of the realm of possibility for him to be a 15 home run guy down the road. His stance is very still and it almost looks as if he is sitting in a chair, as he sticks his butt out a little bit and crouches down a tad. He has a little leg kick as the ball is coming and his hands don't really move back (which is the main detriment to him becoming a 15 home run guy). He showed above average speed and an above average arm. Coghlan's likely best case is that of a Florida teammate, Alfredo Amezaga. I just don't think he will have the stick to carry the outfield and his bat would be just average for a second basemen. He showed some plate discipline, but also showed some struggles in identifying major league offspeed pitches (his 1 hit was a very slow groundball to short). However, he has the speed and arm to possibly be able to man CF and he should be able to hit enough in a utility role. Next season will likely be a big one for Coghlan, as he will either take the stage as a major league player of will be relegated to a career similar to that of teammate Brett Carroll, bouncing between the majors and AAA, but never sticking.

2 charts tomorrow and have a baseball game at 6.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Limeport 3, Yankees 2

We dropped our game tonight 3-2 on a walk-off infield single. The ball deflected off of our pitcher's glove and it would have been a tough play for an infielder to make after the deflection. We are now 1-1 on the season. I led off and DH'd to make it easier to make a move to put me in on the mound (I was in the bullpen for tonights game) but my services weren't needed. I went 1-4 with a single. 2 of my outs were well hit, one was a fliner fly gapper into left center that hung in the air a little too long and the other was a fliner fly about 5 or 6 steps behind the right fielder. The other out was a pussy groundout to 2B on the first pitch, though he only threw me out by a step.

Next game is Wednesday at 5:30. I get a day off to actually go to the gym and lift!

Baseball Update

The Northern Yankees (the team I am playing for here) is now 1-0 after a 12-1 win yesterday. I led off and played second base. Went 3-3 with 2 walks, a triple and a stolen base. The triple could have been an inside the parker, but it made the score 12-0 and he opted to hold me at third (the ball wasn't even back to the cut-off men yet). And, because I am equal opportunity, I got picked off by stealing on a lefty on first move (he balked, but whatever) and made a throwing error (forgot to recalibrate my gun for 2nd base...). It is also funny how some pitchers don't realize how hitters work. This lefty threw me a 2-0 changeup 2 of my 4 at bats against him and I wailed everytime (because I like to cheat to hit a fastball in that count to hit it out). The best part is everytime he tried to use that to get me out in a 3-2 count and I just watched it hit the dirt and took my base. I will swing at it when I am cheating to hit it out, not when I am looking to hit the ball the other way and get on.

Next game is tonight at 7:30.

http://www.tricountyleague.com/index.shtml

The above is the website. I recommend turning off your sound because it gets pretty annoying.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Chart Observations: PHI @ WAS (GM 2)

This game was called after 6 innings due to rain.
  • Andrew Carpenter got a spot start for Philly and doesn't look to be much. He featured a 2-seam sinker at 86-91 (sat at 88-89), a slider at 83-86, a changeup at 82-83 and a splitter at 82-86 from a high 3/4 release. The splitter was his 2nd best pitch on this day and his slider was disappointing. He also showed some issues commanding his sinker and he needs to be able to spot this pitch to be successful. His upside is that of a middle of the rotation starter, as it isn't out of the realm of possibility for him to sit at 90-92 and to get another step-up in command. However, I think he winds up being a guy bouncing between AAA and the majors as his complimentary pitches really aren't good enough to complement a fastball in the high 80's.
  • Daniel Cabrera used to have upside and command issues. Now he just has command issues. He has lost a lot of velocity, now sitting at 89-96 (and mostly at 92-93) and also showed a slider at 78-84 and a changeup at 77-85. He had zero idea where the changeup was going and also had a tendency to throw spinners as opposed to sliders. His slider no longer teases as a plus pitch, but is rather an average pitch when thrown well. Washington rescued him from the dumpster and may now be returning him. He really has no upside left at this point and is major league filler for a desperate organization at this point.
  • Clay Condrey was 88-91 with his fastball, threw a cutter at 86 and showed a slider at 85-86. Solid middle reliever with his moving fastball and his ability to generate ground balls.
  • Ron Villone was 87-88 with his fastball, 79-84 with his slider and 82 with his change. You know what you are going to get with him, as he has had command issues since he came up.

Off tomorrow (though have a baseball game) and return to work on Tuesday.

Sorry for these write ups being mainly pitchers, I just wanted to make sure I got the charts done well and didn't take time to make many notes about hitters due to time constraints.

Chart Observations: CIN @ SD

Yep, charted the 16 inning game from last night/this morning.
  • Edinson Volquez started for the Reds and had some struggles with his command, especially with his fastball. He also appeared to be throwing a lot more offspeed stuff then he typically did. He left the game in the bottom of the 6th with a back injury, but it didn't appear to be serious. Volquez featured a fastball at 88-96, a changeup at 77-82, a curveball at 74-79 and a slider at 75-81.
  • Josh Geer opposed him and is your prototypical finesse right hander. He features a fastball from 83-88 (usually sits at 86-88), a slider at 76-80 and a changeup at 73-76 from a 3/4 release point. His fastball is a 2-seamer that has very good downward movement and bite, but his command is only above average, resulting in him leaving hittable pitches available for hitters in the zone. In evaluating Geer, I think his upside is that of a back of the rotation starter and he is just an extra arm for a contender. His flyball arsenal may be able to play in the bullpen, but who knows?
  • Mike Lincoln featured a fastball at 89-90 and a curveball at 77. He only faced 2 batters. Looked to me like an extra arm in the pen and not someone that is one that will put up big numbers.
  • Arthur Rhodes featured a fastball at 91-93 and a slider at 81-82. Solid left-handed setup man as long as his velocity stays in the low 90's and his command doesn't take any further drops.
  • David Weathers really struggled with his command again. He featured a fastball at 88-90, a slider at 82-85 and a changeup at 82-84. As I said before, he needs to watch out, as these command issues may be a career ender.
  • Daniel Ray Herrera is a small (5-9) left hander who features a slider at 74-76, a fastball at 83 and what appeared to be a screwball at 66. He has a unique repetoire of pitches and seems to have enough to not have hitters focused on other pitches. Debatable if he can consistenly get out right handers due to less then ideal velocity, but at worst he is a quality LOOGY.
  • Jared Burton featured a fastball at 90-92, a cutter at 90-92, a slider at 82-83 and a changeup at 80-83. Another guy who profiles as just a middle reliever, as he has only average command and none of his pitches are plus. His primary pitch is the cutter and it didn't have as much cut on it as it had previously last night.
  • Micah Owings finished the game featuring a fastball at 85-91, a slider at 79-83 and a changeup at 76-80. He has a slight chance of a future as a reliever with his fastball-change combination, but even that is a stretch at this point.
  • Joe Thatcher is a side arming LOOGY who struck out Laynce Nix with fastballs at 87-88 and a slider at 76. He appears to be a guy that will always be battling his command. He profiles very well as a LOOGY if he has command and is a AAA pitcher if he doesn't have command.
  • Greg Burke made his big league debut last night. He featured an above average moving 2-seam fastball at 91-93 and threw one slider at 84 from a high 3/4 release. The one slider was average. His command appeared to be above average and his mechanics were fairly clean. This is his shot at sticking with a big league team.
  • Cla Meredith's slider has lost a lot. He sat with a fastball at 85-87 and his slider was 76-80. What was once a plus pitch is now barely league average and his fastball isn't enough to serve as a ROOGY. He may be in for a long season as a sidearmer.
  • Heath Bell went after guys with a fastball at 92-96 and a curveball at 79-82 from an over the top release. His curveball didn't have great bite and he struggled to command it. He is still a quality closer, but is likely in that 3rd tier of elite closers.
  • Edward Mujica showed a fastball at 93-95, a slider at 81-82 and a split at 87. Both off-speed pitches are below average and he really can't command them. His ability to spot his fastball can only work for so long before teams sit solely on it and start gripping and ripping.
  • Luke Gregerson featured a fastball at 89-92, a slider at 83-86 and a changeup at 78-84 from a low 3/4 release. Gregerson appears to just be another middle reliever with his moving 2-seam fastball. His 2-seamer is above average, but the slider and change are just average offerings and he also showed just average command. He profiles best as a middle reliever, but will likely always be battling to be on a roster.
  • Luis Perdomo still tantalizes myself with his stuff. Last night, he featured a moving 2-seamer at 91-93 and a slider at 87-89. He will need to refine his command and become more consistent with his stuff to succeed.

Saturday, May 16, 2009

ARI @ ATL

  • Kenshin Kawakami is another over hyped Japanese pitcher in my opinion. Kawakami attacked guys with a fastball at 86-91, a curveball at 68-73, a cutter at 85-89 and a splitter at 83-86. Kawakami's curveball is his only real plus pitch. However, what he is learning is that it is too slow to be an out pitch here in the U.S. Hitters here are fooled by it, but they recover in time to just flick their wrist and foul it off. Kawakami's fastball and splitter are each average offerings and his cutter is below average and barely cuts. His command is also just average. He comes from a high 3/4 release point and has the classic Japanese delivery with a pause right before the breaking of the hands. His upside to me is that of a back of the rotation starter.
  • Max Scherzer opposed him and represented the other end of the spectrum. Scherzer has great stuff (tonight he was 90-96 with the fastball, though settled in at 92-93 after the 3rd inning, a slider at 85-88 and a changeup at 81-85) but can never pitch out of the 6th inning due to running up high pitch counts. Scherzer's command is above average, but he appears to get into moments where he loses it for a batter or two and allows them to reach. His fastball is plus, his slider is plus and his changeup flashes plus, though he has little command of the change. His mechanics also worry me, as he features a violent head jerk and he puts a lot of pressure on his throwing shoulder due to his arm action. Very good pitcher (likely a # 2 for a contender once he gains some more command), but he will always be a constant injury risk (but, every pitcher is.).
  • James Parr is now a reliever for the Braves. He sat at 87-92 with his fastball, 80-82 with his changeup, 73-79 with his curveball and 80 at the 1 slider he threw. It is also worth noting he was 88-89 in his 2nd inning of work and lost velocity. I mention this because he is a borderline major league reliever as a 1 inning guy but has a chance to be a decent long man. He comes from a straight over the top release, and like every other pitcher that has that release, he has a plus curveball. His changeup is above average, but his fastball is just average. His command is above average right now, though it can jump around from plus plus to average in the course of an appearance. I just don't see a major leaguer here. I see a guy who will be on the bus to Gwinnett and back fairly often. Now, if he can maintain his velocity in the low 90's in multiple inning spurts, then he may stick in a pen.
  • Scott Schoeneweis is your typical LOOGY, featuring a fastball at 88-90 and a slider at 80-82. Got out 2 of the 3 guys he faced. Solid guy in a pen.
  • Juan Gutierrez has bounced back from a terrible year at AAA last year to profile fairly well as a reliever. He showed a fastball at 93 today (only threw 2 pitches), but I have seen him flash a slider and curveball as above average. His command will always be a question that he needs to prove and if he can answer it, he profiles very well as a Tony Pena type reliever.
  • Jeff Bennett showed some command issues tonight and featured a fastball at 91-94 and a slider at 82-87. He appeared to be nibbling instead of attacking hitters. Both his fastball and slider are just average pitches from a 1-inning reliever, but he was typically employed as a multi-inning guy last year where his pitches have more value. Bennett may always have command issues, or he may just be breaking down from last year's work, but neither of those 2 options is very good. Bennett profiles well as a reliever to use when the starter gets pummelled when he has command. If he doesn't have command? You just saw it. That wasn't that valuable (1 IP, 4 BB)
  • Esmerling Vasquez is an intriguing pitcher. He features a fastball at 92-97, a slider at 82 and a changeup at 84-88. Only his fastball is truly plus, while his slider and changeup are currently average. He sports average command, but is a pitcher to watch. The 25 year old has an explosive arm and his slider shows some potential as an out pitch. I believe that I would rather have my young (or somewhat young) arms take their lumps in the majors as opposed to the PCL and he could turn it around. You never know when the light will flick on for command. He is a guy that could be a future closer (though there is a TON of projection to that) and will likely be a solid middle reliever for a contender.
  • Buddy Carlyle, the bus to Gwinnett is waiting. He featured a fastball at 87-90, a cutter at 83-86, a curveball at 72 and a changeup at 76-81. None of his pitches are plus, only the changeup is above average and he struggled with his command tonight. He is a guy that even when he has command only profiles as a mop-up type reliever. I personally think he may be done, but the Braves have a lot of relievers with similar stuff that actually have options to the minors left, so he may get a chance to stick it out and turn it around.
  • Chad Qualls finished the game (for some reason) and featured a fastball at 91-94 and a cutter at 86-87. The Diamondbacks call it a cutter, so that is good enough for me, as I thought it showed some slider action. Both of his pitches are plus (while his fastball velocity isn't what's expected out of a closer, it is a 2-seam that gets great fade and bite). I would still prefer him as a set-up guy with his plus command, but he won't hurt you as a closer.
  • Gerardo Parra, a 5-11 195 pound 21 year old, is a lefty stick that features a stance where he leans back on his back leg with all his weight there, leaving a straight front leg. He taps the bat on his back shoulder and utilizes a toe turn. This was one of the D'Backs top prospects and he showed it in this game. When you see him, he just looks like a player. He is a 60 or 65 runner and features a good looking line drive swing that shows a gap hitter who has plenty of time to add power. His swing has some loft to it, so it isn't out of the question. He is a guy that looks to be a solid starting center fielder for a contender down the road. Right now, I want to see how he reacts in a month when scouting reports get out, as he is very aggressive (which typically means he can't hit off-speed and jumps on early fastballs) and the sign of whether a player will make it as a starter or backup is in that first adjustment. I like him and think he projects to be a .280 hitter with about a .360 on base percentage (was .361-.469 at Mobile-AA) and should hit 15-20 homers a year while stealing 20-25 bases. You want that as your starting CF? I would.

Busy day tomorrow. Will be waking up at about 620 to get ready for church (yea, trying to be religious), then will head into the office after service at about 830 and do 2 charts. After that, we are scheduled (it poured here tonight) to have our first game in that summer league. One of these days, there will be room for a girlfriend in this mound of stuff to do.

NYM @ SF

  • I got to watch Johan Santana pitch for the 1st time in about 2 years and he is definitely amongst the best pitchers in the majors. He was at 89-93 with his fastball, 79-84 with his changeup and 82-86 with his slider. The bad part of this is the Mets seem to take off everyday he pitches, making errors or just not hitting, or both. His fastball is above average due to his plus command, his changeup is plus-plus and his slider was above average. He mainly was FB-CU and had guys way out in front or swinging over the top of his change. If the Mets can ever play defense behind him, his pitch counts would become much more manageable. A legit # 1.
  • Randy Johnson has lost some stuff. He was 88-94 with his fastball, 84-88 with the slider and 83-86 with the splitter. Johnson's slider is now merely a plus pitch and his fastball is slightly above average. The splitter is just an average offering. He still has plus-plus command, but now gets punished when he misses in the zone or teams bloops fall in and both happened to him today. He is a back of the rotation starter for a contender though with his ability to eat up innings and is a valuable pitcher.
  • Justin Miller was picked up by the Giants from the Marlins. He features a fastball at 87-91 and a slider at 78-82. Nothing about this guy is plus. He struggled with his command (I would say it is below average), his fastball is average and his slider may be a tick above average. He has a slight amount of extra movement in his stretch, as the lead foot comes down, then out. Not sure if its anything, but it is a different thing. He seems to be in the mold of Vinnie Chulk or Kiko Calero, but just doesn't have the stuff to be that. Organizational reliever.
  • Merkin Valdez demonstrated his plus arm featuring a fastball at 95-97 and a slider at 85. Valdez was once a top prospect before he had multiple arm surgeries, but he has a plus fastball and a plus slider with average command from a high 3/4 release point and you have to think the more innings he throws, the more his command will develop. I think this kid is a future closer, though he will need to be quick to shed his injury-prone label and show an ability to pitch on back-to-back days.
  • Pat Misch is another reliever who didn't show much. From a 3/4 release, he was 85-89 with his fastball, 84 with his slider, 75-78 with his curveball and 80-82 with his changeup. I liked his curveball, but when you sit at 85-89 with your fastball and only show a little above average command, your error zone gets a lot smaller. I think he is a long reliever in a pen, but he isn't a guy who has LOOGY potential, as his curveball isn't a true out or plus pitch, but just above average. His changeup was also a touch above average, making him a good candidate to face both righties and lefties.
  • Bobby Parnell was another lightning arm on display this afternoon. He was 94-98 with his fastball and 81-85 with his slider. His slider is average, though it has flashed above average a few times I have seen him and his command is also just average. I wouldn't expect him to maintain a sub 2 ERA all season, but it isn't out of the question for a sub 3 ERA and being a solid 7th inning guy if he doesn't get victimized too badly by the Mets defense or balls in play. Parnell's upside is that of a closer, though I think he will settle in as a set-up man.
  • Brandon Medders finished the game for the Giants and got hit around a little bit. Once a hard throwing right hander in the Diamondbacks system, he has made himself into a command and control type pitcher (whether it's an upgrade or not is debatable). He featured a cut fastball at 88-91 (may just be natural cut, but it is a cutter), a curveball at 68-70 and a slider at 80-83. Only the cutter was a real above average pitch and that is only due to the fact he can typically spot it. He only has above average command, so he does tend to leave pitches out over the plate and with his new velocity, he gets hit. His curveball is a plus offering, but is no out pitch, as it is too slow and easy to fight off. Another guy who features best as a 10th or 11th guy in the pen. He will likely continue riding the bus to Fresno and back.
  • J.J. Putz got the save for the Mets and featured his 4-seam fastball at 94-96, a slider at 82 and a splitter at 84-86. The splitter had very good bite today. When the splitter doesn't have good bite, he is forced to rely on his fastball to left handers and that is how he gets hit. His slider is above average and his fastball is also above average. His command is above average, but when he misses with the fastball, he tends to miss up. If he can continue to be consistent with his splitter, he is a luxury for the Mets, as he is a closer pitching the 8th inning.
  • Manny Burriss, a 6-0 190 pound 23 year old, is a switch hitter with a small frame that can add quite a bit more muscle (though if he does, he likely loses some speed). From the right side, he features a crouched stance. He is a plus runner who understands his strengths and looks to pound the ball on the ground. He moves his weight back as the pitcher is about to release. From the left side, he features a crouched stance, but also opens himself up to see the ball better. He may be a tad overexposed as a starting 2Bmen, though he fits their park very well with his speed. I think he winds up being a super utility guy that can play everywhere (he came up as a SS) and being the top guy off a bench for a contender. A career like Chone Figgins also isn't out of question.
  • Pablo Sandoval, a 5-11 245 pound 22 year old, is a switch hitter with a squatty build and a body that would be described by scouts as bad. He has huge thighs, which have to worry you as he ages. His frame is currently maxed out (hard to tell if it is good or bad). He shows a fairly stright up stance and takes a big leg kick right before the pitcher release. He is a below average runner. He is more or of a line drive gap hitter then a masher. His upside is likely close to that of a starting 3B. If he was able to catch everyday, he would be immensely more valuable. The only problem with his as a corner infielder is I don't believe he will show the power needed from those positions and doesn't offer too much defensively. He is the classic defensive tweener, as he can't play OF, can play manageable corner infield spots, but you wish you had someone better there and he can spot catch, but you don't want him catching everyday. I think he is good enough to establish himself as an everyday 3B for a team that gets its power elsewhere (like Philly) and is a guy that will be a .280-.330-.440 guy in his prime. Very aggressive hitter that won't walk much.
  • Travis Ishikawa, a 6-3 225 pound 25 year old, has a big frame that can add a lot more muscle. He features a slightly open stance that is nearly identical to that of teammate Fred Lewis. You would think he would have power his frame, but he also appears to be another gap-hitting San Francisco corner infielder. He is a tweener to me, but a tweener in the sense I think he is a 4-A player. He doesn't offer much in regards to batting average (probably about a .260 hitter), power (maybe 15 home runs, that's the max), defense (kind of lead footed and doesn't have great hands) or speed (just an average runner). Sounds like a 4-A player to me. John Bowker is hitting .317 in AAA. Sounds like its his turn again in the "Who Wants to Play First Base for the Giants And Not Be Worthless?" gameshow.
  • Bengie Molina's catch and throw ability has really deteriorated. He is slow in his exchange, it appears his arm angle has dropped causing the ball to tail towards second base and his arm is just average. However, he is their best hitter, so he will continue to play. It actually scares me to what Sandoval's defensive is like back there, as I would think playing Molina at 1B could be a better option (who knows at this point, he has to be better then John Bowker).

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Greg Paulus to Syracuse

In a must-win that Syracuse football played in May, they got their man. Former # 1 QB prospect Greg Paulus has committed to Syracuse to play football. Syracuse was set out to be the front runner by the national media and if he had not come to Syracuse, people would be attempting to figure out how Syracuse couldn't get a hometown kid to play 1 year there. Doug Marrone would have had a tough time recovering.

I like the way the Syracuse skill positions are profiling (our offensive line sucks and will need a lot of work to just become manageable). Consider this:
QB: Greg Paulus vs. Ryan Nassib - Atleast there is now legimitate competition for Nassib. Paulus had a tryout with the Packers and knows he has one year to strut his stuff, so he should be motivated. Nassib beat out Cameron Dantley (who we all know is not our answer at QB) so he did what he needed to do. If he beats out Paulus, then we have a QB who is ready to go for 4 years.

HB: Delone Carter vs. Antwon Bailey vs. Averin Collier - Carter had a great frosh season and is now working himself to his former self and looked great in the spring. Bailey brings a slash and go style that the other 2 just don't have and he is a very special tailback. Collier is a little bit of a mixture of the 2 and was Cuse's top recruit from last season. Luckily, he was not part of the redshirt purge instituted by Greg Robinson, so he still has 4 years to play ball. I would take this group of tailbacks over anyone in the conference besides West Virginia.

WR: Mike Williams vs. Lavar Lobdell vs. Donte Davis vs. Marcus Sales - These 4 will likely end up being on the field together in 4 WR sets and these guys are very talented. I would also take these 4 over any receiving corps in the Big East.

TE: Mike Owen will be the blocker. Cody Catalina and Nick Provo are fighting to be the receivers. Both are very talented and show the potential to be something.

Things are beginning to look up for Syracuse.

SEA vs. TEX

Yes, I had the same teams for a score 2 days in a row and got to watch them end in exciting fashions.
  • Felix Hernandez started for the Mariners and didn't have his best stuff. The Rangers failed to get on him early and he settled in very well. His fastball sat at 88-94 (and was only 90-92 most of the time), a changeup at 84-89, a slider at 81-86 and a curveball at 80-83. No changes on my thinking of him, potential to be best starter in baseball.
  • Matt Harrison opposed him and made me look like an idiot. As soon as you think someone is a borderline major league pitcher, they make some adjustments and turn a corner and Harrison has done that. Harrison, from a 3/4 release, has sped up his wind-up and is pitching with much better tempo, something that has been a staple of Mark Buehrle for years. He also is showing a new willingness to both pitch inside and throw offspeed stuff when behind in the count. Harrison's fastball sat at 87-93, his changeup was 77-81, his slider was 76-83, his curveball was 73-75 and I believe he has added a cutter, which was 83-86. He also showed plus command. If he can maintain this plus command, he is a solid # 3 starter. If not, back to back-of-the rotation starter. My money is now on him to be a # 3 starter. Mike Maddux has done wonders for those starters.
  • David Aardsma was 90-93 with his fastball and threw a slider at 81 and a splitter at 86.
  • Brandon Morrow blew another save in big fashion (allowed about a 460 foot shot by Hank Blalock followed by a 415 foot shot by Chris Davis that drove in the other 2 runs). He still has great stuff, but he only throws his fastball. His fastball was 93-96 and doesn't have the movement or command of it to be as effective as other fastball-happy closers, like a Jonathan Papelbon. Morrow shows good off-speed stuff but can't throw them for strikes and so they aren't called. His catchers will need to call more off-speed stuff or this will continue to occur.
  • Wladimir Balentien, a 6-2 220 pound 24 year old, has a medium to large frame that can add on a little bit more muscle. He has a slightly open stance with a little bat wiggle and he utilizes a toe turn.. He currently has average power, but should get some more as he continues to develop his frame. He shows the ability to hit to all fields. Solid, major league average starting corner outfielder.
  • David Murphy, a 6-4 205 pound 27 year old, has a big frame that can add a lot more muscle. He has a slightly open stance, but is hunched over a little bit. He has a fairly long swing, so he must cheat to hit fastballs. He has average speed. He is a guy who is a 4th OF who can't play CF and doesn't have great power. He is someone that may be finding his usefulness in the majors coming to a close. I think his upside is that of a 4th OF.
  • Taylor Teagarden, a 6-1 200 pound 25 year old, has a medium frame with room to add more muscle, especially to his lower half. He has a fairly straight-up stance and brings his hands forward and back as part of his trigger. This causes his swing to lengthen at times, but allows him to generate a little more pop. Teagarden is an interesting guy, as he has failed to hit for average for quite awhile now. He is a quality catch and throw guy and does a good job blocking balls. He may follow in the path of another former top prospect in the AL West, Jeff Mathis, but provide more power.

Chart Observations: BOS vs. LAA

  • Tim Wakefield started for the Red Sox and featured a knuckler at 67-67, a fastball at 72-73 and a curveball at 58-60 (seriously). He struggled to command the knuckler and it was up in the zone quite a bit. He got hit around, but you expect this from Wakefield. A back-of-the-rotation starter who will lay down some clunkers when the knuckler has a bad day and will have some dominant games when the knuckler dances.
  • Matt Palmer threw brilliantly after the first 2 innings. Palmer will not overwhelm you with his stuff, as he sits at 86-88 with his cutter, 86-89 with his 2-seam, 74-77 with his curveball and 82-83 with his changeup. He also dropped down sidearm to throw a curveball to Mike Lowell to end the game and that was at 74. He showed plus command and both his cutter and 2-seam have enough side-to-side movement to make it very difficult for hitters to consistenly put the barrel on the ball. His curveball is a tick above average because of the difference in velocity and his ability to command it. He threw only 2 changeups. Palmer is likely a back of the rotation starter (likely a 5), but is more likely to be one of those emergency starters, the ones who spend a lot of time in AAA and come up when the team is in a bind.
  • Hunter Jones is not a major league pitcher in my opinion. He featured a fastball at 86-87 and a slider at 73-76. He doesn't have great command of these average major league offerings and with that type of stuff, you need great command. I don't know if there is much of an upside to him, I think the best he can hope for is to be the 2nd left hander in someone's bullpen.
  • Daniel Bard made his major league debut last night and showed a fastball anywhere from 93-98, a slurvy slider at 77-82 and a changeup at 88. He sat between 94-96 with the fastball and showed good command of it. However, both his off-speed pitches are average at best. The slider flashed as an above average offering, but he struggles to command it. The changeup did very little the 1 time he threw it. He is primarily a FB-SL reliever and he features plus velocity, but he has never had good command, so I think his upside is that of a set-up man and is more likely to settle into a middle relief role.
  • Takashi Saito showed a fastball at 88-91, a slider at 80-81 and a curveball at 75. He didn't have as much stuff as I thought he did and may end up being over-exposed as a set-up man. This may have been just a bad day (they were losing, so who knows how that affected him), but his slider was kind of flat and his curveball was just average. He has above average command of his stuff, but the end may be near.

SEA vs. TEX

  • Jarrod Washburn started for the Mariners and featured his 5 pitch mix of a fastball at 84-89, a cutter at 84-87, a changeup at 77-84 (2nd most thrown pitch), a slider at 74-80 that he used to lefties and righties to get ahead or put away and a curveball at 66-68 that he threw on the 1st pitch to get a cheap strike. No change on my opinion of him, but the lack of velocity on his fastball is concerning.
  • Brandon McCarthy opposed him and he disappointed me. He has lost a lot of fastball velocity since he was a reliever for the White Sox. McCarthy showed a fastball at 87-90, a hard curveball from 76-81, a soft curveball from 72-75 and a changeup at 76-79. McCarthy's curveball is plus, but it isn't a strikeout pitch. His fastball is merely average and his changeup is a tick above average. If he can throw strikes with the curveball, he can be a middle of the rotation starter. If he doesn't, he is a back-end starter at best. He attacks hitters from straight over the top and showed above average command of all his pitches tonight.
  • David Aardsma was 91-95 with his fastball and threw one slider at 81 that hung. His fastball is plus, but you have to wonder how long he can get away with it being his only pitch.
  • Eddie Guardado is done in my opinion. Tonight, he was 84-86 with his fastball, 76-79 with his slider and threw a changeup at 77. Having 3 lefties (Guardado, Wilson and Derek Holland) is a luxury that this team needs to correct, especially since Guardado has had struggles this season.
  • Darren O'Day is a side-arming, ground ball forcing right hander who has been phenomenal since coming over. He sat at 84-86 with his fastball and his slider was 76-77. He looks like a legitimate major league ROOGY (and even struck out Russell Branyan). It appears the Mets allowed another one to get away. I think he profiles very well as a right handed middle reliever, with his main role being to get out tough righties or to get double plays.
  • Sean White showed a fastball at 90-92, an average slider at 83-86 and a plus changeup at 80-82. He needs to throw the change more, as this was his best off-speed pitch in my opinion. He may be getting the message, as he used it to strike out Marlon Byrd, a right hander.
  • C.J. Wilson was in line to take the loss before Brandon Morrow's struggles, but he pitched well. He showcased a fastball at 91-93, a slider at 81-86 and a changeup at 83-85. He was over exposed as a closer, but he is a quality setup guy, as his fastball velocity is plus. His slider and changeup are both a tick above average. He showed strong command tonight as well.
  • Garrett Olson made an appearance tonight and was in line to get the win. Olson attacked hitters with a fastball at 87-90, a curveball at 79-80 that moves more like a slider and a changeup at 80-82. Olson definitely doesn't have the stuff to be a starter and I don't think he has the stuff to be better then a long reliever/mop-up guy. He needs to further refine his command and his off-speed offerings.
  • Brandon Morrow took the loss after allowing a shot to Hank Blalock that I thought was gone off the bat. He showed a plus fastball at 94-98 and plus curveball at 83-84. He should have had Josh Hamilton struck out looking on a great curveball, but the home plate umpire couldn't pull the trigger. He has great potential, but his command has a ways to go until you can feel confident when he is out there. Right now, every save will be an adventure.
  • Elvis Andrus is a 20 year old who stands 6-0, 185 pounds. He has a medium frame with the room to add quite a bit more muscle, probably at least 10 pounds. He features a fairly straight up stance and holds the bat above his shoulder at a 45 degree angle. He shows a little bat wiggle. He seems to bring all his weight forward when he strides, limiting the time to make a decision to swing or not. He is a very aggressive hitter. He is a special fielder, one with great hands and an above average accurate arm. He has plus range to his right. He is a plus runner with borderline 75 speed. His worst case scenario in my opinion is a career like Omar Vizquel's, as he is close to the same class of fielder potentially. Best case? He is 20 and playing in the majors. The sky is the limit for this kid, though he will likely never be more then a 20 home run guy.

Tomorrow I have an extra chart and will see the same 2 teams again with a match-up of Felix Hernandez and Matt Harrison.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Chart Observations: CHW vs. CLE

  • Clayton Richard got the start for the White Sox, his first in at least a year. He looked good early, sitting at 91-95 with his fastball. However, once he got to the third inning, he sat at 89-91 and definitely didn't appear to be used to pitching this long. Richard also attacked hitters with a slurvy slider anywhere from 75-85, a changeup from 81-84 and a cut fastball at 85-89. Richard's fastball is plus out of the pen, but none of his other offerings do much. He is more of a sinkerballing reliever and could probably be a strong LOOGY with his slurvy slider and hard fastball. He just added the cutter this year.
  • Jeremy Sowers opposed him and also struggled. Sowers has some unique arm action in that he brings his arm straight back and seems to really relax off his elbow. I don't know anything about what type of extra stress that may put on his arm. His stuff wasn't very good though. He went after the White Sox hitters with a fastball at 86-91, a slider at 76-82 and a changeup at 80-82. Sowers is not a major league pitcher, in either the rotation (for someone with such a slow fastball, he throws a lot of them, almost 75 %) or the bullpen (slider is barely average). Sowers will need to hope to have a Jamie Moyer like revelation to develop into something.
  • D.J. Carrasco is back in the states and throwing strikes. He featured a cutter at 88-90, a fastball at 92, a curveball anywhere from 73-82 and he threw a sidearm fastball at 88. He likes to drop sidearm to throw both a fastball and curveball to try and get extra movement and give hitters something else to think about. Solid long reliever type guy and was moderately surprised he didn't get the spot start today.
  • Matt Thornton may have the best stuff of any left handed reliever in the game right now. Yesterday, he was 93-97 with his fastball and threw one slider at 85. That type of velocity from a left hander is unheard of and he commands it very well. Could be a closer, but fits great for the White Sox as 7th inning pitcher, as a pitcher with that velocity can get out right handers as well.
  • Octavio Dotel featured a fastball at 92-94 and a slider at 80-82. The slider lacked its bite that it has shown in the past and is just a tick above average now as opposed to a plus pitch. He has solid command of both his pitches and is still a quality set-up man.
  • Bobby Jenks closed out the game with fastballs sitting at 93-96 and threw 1 slider at 91 and 1 changeup at 84. Another of the better closers in the game.
  • Jensen Lewis pitched pretty well, featuring a fastball sitting at 89-92, a plus changeup at 78-81 and a slider at 85. Still a guy that could factor into the late innings if he develops another pitch to complement his changeup.
  • Tony Sipp has not impressed me either time I have seen him. He just can't command his stuff. His fastball is an above average pitch, as it sits at 91-93 with some movement. His slider is an average pitch sitting at 80-82. His lack of command causes his pitches to play down. He definitely needs more seasoning in AAA.
  • Matt Herges finished the game featuring a fastball sitting at 88-90, a curveball at 75 and a changeup at 79-81. Herges 2-seam features a lot of movement and is an above average pitch. His changeup is a tick above average and his curveball is also a tick above average. Solid reliever to have in the pen, but he is prone to allowing hits, as none of his pitches are anything a hitter hasn't seen before.

Chart Observations: DET @ MIN

  • Armando Galarraga got the start for Detroit and showed good command of his fastball-slider combination. He sat at 88-93 with his fastball and 84-88 with his slider, while throwing a changeup at 81-85. He attacks from a low 3/4 arm angle, giving his slider a little extra cut. He threw more sliders then changeups in this game and I am unsure as to whether that is typical or not. His fastball shows some good fade, but it is still just an average pitch and his slider is just an average pitch movement wise. Both these pitches play up due to his plus command and he can put the slider wherever he wants. His changeup is below average and I see him as more a # 4 starter then a solid middle of the rotation starter.
  • Kevin Slowey opposed him and kept hitters off balance with a fastball sitting at 87-90, a changeup at 80-85, a cutter at 82-86, a curveball at 72-75 and a slider at 81-83. Slowey mixed his pitches very well and worked through his struggles early in the game in regards to getting the fastball down. He works fast and typically pounds the ball in the strike zone. He is likely pitching at his peak, a middle of the rotation starter that is a better fit as a # 4 then a # 3. It isn't out of the realm of possiblity to see him add some velocity due to the fact his frame is still somewhat developing.
  • Ryan Perry continued to look good with his fastball, sitting at 93-98 and was usually 94-96. He threw a slider at 81-84 that is pretty fringe. He still has the same upside due to his velocity on the heater, but I doubt he makes it, as he needs a secondary pitch and command. Reminds me a lot of David Aardsma when he first came up.
  • Brandon Lyon was 91-92 with his fastball and threw a 75 mile per hour curveball. He just doesn't impress me. He has good above average command, but his stuff isn't that good. He is a decent middle reliever, as the NL West helped mask a lot of his deficiencies.
  • Jesse Crain struggled commanding his fastball, which sat at 93-94 and he threw one curveball at 77. Still a quality middle reliever and I actually prefer his stuff to Matt Guerrier's in regards to a set-up role, but Guerrier has much better command. Guerrier sat at 91-92 with his fastball, 84-85 with his slider and 78-79 with his curveball. Both of these guys are strong set-up men.
  • Jose Mijares threw much better this outing then his previous one. He sat at 90-94 with his fastball, 81-84 with his slider and 82 with his changeup. His slider is a tick above average, his changeup is average and his fastball is above average. His command has always been his bug-a-boo and when it is on, he is a set-up type reliever who can get out right handers, but when his command isn't, he is a LOOGY who needs someone ready in case of walks.
  • Joe Nathan was 92-95 with his 4-seamer, 88 with his 2-seam, 89 with his slider and 82-83 with his curveball. Great collection of pitches, as all rate at least above average and he has plus command. One of the best.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

STL @ PIT

Had an extra game tonight and for once it didn't go to extra innings or rain delay or both!

  • Zach Duke started for the Pirates and looked magnificent. This is the 1st time I have actually watched him pitch and he looked good. Now, his stuff will never wow people, as his fastball was 87-91, his curveball from 69-74, his changeup was 78-82 and his slider was 84-85, which he only used against left handers, but when he is throwing his curveball for strikes, he is a quality middle of the rotation starter. He has a Jamie Moyer like motion from a high 3/4 release. His upside is that of a middle of the rotation starter, but I think he is more of a back-end guy unless he can consistenly throw his above average curveball for strikes, as the difference in velocity really screws with a hitter. His fastball is fringe average, his changeup is above average and his slider is a tick above average, so he doesn't have too many weapons when he struggles with his curve.
  • Todd Wellemeyer underwent a transformation tonight from a FB-SL-CU pitcher to a FB-CUT-CU-SL-CB pitcher. It didn't look too good, as his cutter has good cut, but he was leaving it belt high. He sat at 88-93 with his fastball, 87-91 with the cutter, 80-84 with the changeup, 75-78 with his curveball and 77-80 with the slider. It is possible he has completely scrapped the slider for the cutter and these are really curveballs. Same opinion as before, solid back-of-rotation starter for a contender and will likely not post a sub 4 ERA again.
  • Matt Capps made the 9th inning exciting, loading the bases before getting out of it without allowing a run (for what it's worth, 2nd straight game I have done where the bases got loaded in the 9th). He attacked hitters with a 4-seam fastball at 93-96, a slider at 85-86 and a changeup at 86-87. He still has the look of a frontline closer when he is throwing strikes, but his frame is one that doesn't look very athletic and you have to wonder how about his recent durability issues.
  • Blaine Boyer went after guys with a fastball at 90-91, a curveball at 72-77 and a cutter at 83-85. Should still be a solid guy to have in a bullpen, just not one you want pitching with a lead.
  • Trever Miller showed he can get out right-handers as well, as he featured a fastball at 85-87, his frisbee slider at 73-77 and a changeup at 81-85. Very useful pitcher with his command of his secondary pitches, just got to wonder how much longer he can keep doing this.
  • Brad Thompson threw 2 innings and was sitting at 86-88 with his 2-seam fastball, 77-78 with his slider, 81-82 with his changeup and 75-78 with his curveball. No real plus offering and is a guy that just tries to mix speeds and get you to hit the ball on the ground. My opinion of him hasn't changed from before. When his service time starts making raises happen, he loses a lot of his value, as a lot of guys in AAA can do what he is being asked to do.
  • Tyler Greene, a 6-2 190 pound 25 year old, got another start, this one at 3B. He is showing better to me, as this is the 3rd time I have seen him. He has average power (probably a little above average for a SS) and might be able to stick as a utility infielder who can play SS (and that is very valuable to Tony La Russa). Another con to Greene though is the fact that he was almost over-aggressive in his attempts to hit the 1st pitch fastball. He swung at the 1st pitch 3 times and looked very bad when Capps threw him a 1st pitch slider. If that report gets out and teams start feeding him off-speed, we will know for sure if he is a late-bloomer utility infielder Wilson Betemit style.
  • Robinzon Diaz, a 5-11 220 pound 25 year old, is a catcher who is getting his first real legitimate chance at playing time. He doesn't appear to have an above average tool, as he has some power, but wouldn't hit more then 10 home runs as a regular. He is solid defensively, but isn't someone that will just shut down a running game. He has a squatty catcher frame and he features a slightly open stance where he is standing somewhat straight up. In my eyes, it's a coinflip between him and Jason Jaramillo for the backup job when Ryan Doumit returns. It may come down to options.
  • Andy LaRoche, a 6-1 210 pound 25 year old, was the main major league ready guy (with Brandon Moss) that Pittsburgh got in the Jason Bay trade. LaRoche just doesn't profile very well to me. His frame is close to maxed out and he will never have more then average power for a 3rd basemen. He has a slightly open stance with a toe turn and he has shown a hole in his swing to inside fastballs when I have seen him. For a player known for his bat when he was coming up, it looks like it may need to be his defense to carry him. His bat may barely play at 3B.
  • Colby Rasmus, a 6-2 200 pound 22 year old, came in when Ryan Ludwick appeared to pull a hamstring attempting to make a catch. Rasmus is St. Louis' top prospect and you can see what they like. I was skeptical of him, as he hadn't yet proven himself in AAA, but he has a slightly open stance with a nice swing that doesn't have any real apparent holes. He still has some strides to make with pitch recognition and his ability to hit left-handers, but he does look like a guy who can be a starting CF, though I think putting him as one of the top 10 prospects in baseball may be a little immature, as I don't know if anything about him screams All-Star. Looked like above average speed and didn't do anything either bad or great in CF.
  • In addition to the comments I made earlier about Shane Robinson, he is 24 years old and has just an average (and may be below average) arm from center field. He played RF after Ludwick left, but his arm will not play there and that greatly reduces his value. He has a nice looking line drive swing and will need to fight to become a 4th OF in the mold of an Endy Chavez.

Tomorrow is a busy day for me, as I have 2 charts (1 of which is an extra), a baseball practice and the 8:05 SEA-TEX game featuring Jarrod Washburn and Brandon McCarthy.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

SEA @ MIN

Yes, I have seen a lot of Seattle this weekend. And yes, it really wasn't that enjoyable.
  • Erik Bedard got the start for Seattle and battled himself. He only had 2 pitches (a fastball at 88-93 and a curveball at 75-80) and didn't throw his changeup or cutter at all in my eyes. He also has much better command of his curveball then his fastball, as he seemed to be able to throw the curveball over the plate at will while struggling to find the zone with his heater. He is still a # 2 starter, but this is the 2nd start I have seen where he hasn't had real good command of his stuff. While he didn't allow many runs (just 2 ER in 4 and 2/3), he needs to pitch deeper into games to allow the bullpen to not be taxed. He attacks hitters from a low 3/4 release.
  • Nick Blackburn opposed him and was very sharp. Blackburn is not a pitcher who will overwhelm you, but will play a little smoke and mirrors game, as he has plus command of all his pitches: a FB at 87-93, a cutter at 83-88 and a curveball at 74-78. He appears to have a plan for every hitter and executes it extremely well. The cutter in particular is the pitch that sets him apart from other finesse righthanders, as he can locate it and it cuts hard in to lefties and hard away from righties, rarely resulting in solid contact. He attacks from a high 3/4 release and is pitching at his ceiling now, a solid # 3 starter.
  • Mark Lowe pitched a rare multi-inning outing and looked pretty good with a fastball sitting at 93-95, a changeup at 85-86 and a slider at 82-83. His stuff is still closer-worthy, his question is will the command return after that arm injury? If not, still a very strong late game reliever as a setup guy.
  • Miguel Batista is a guy I don't really enjoy watching pitch and I have seen him a ton. Today, he was 92-93 with his fastball and 84-85 with his cutter. He has a rubber arm and is the Mariners go-to-pitcher in their bullpen. Whether that is a good thing or bad thing is up to you.
  • Jose Mijares showed the same issues that have always been his bugaboo, an inability to consistenly throw strikes. He walked Jose Lopez (not an easy thing to do) and proceeded to allow a game tying 2-run home run to Ken Griffey Jr. Mijares was 89-93 with his fastball and did not throw his slider, curveball or changeup. He is a bigger guy who comes at you from a high 3/4 release that is almost overhead. I still don't know what to think of him. Part of me says that he can be a set-up man to get out righties and lefties and another side says that he won't throw enough strikes to be a major league reliever. This is a pivotal year for him.
  • Jesse Crain took the loss after not recording an out in the 8th inning. From a high 3/4 release, Crain attacked hitters with a fastball at 90-94, a slider at 89 and a curveball at 75. Still a late inning reliever and he had one of those nights every pitcher has.
  • Matt Guerrier came from a high 3/4 release with his fastball sitting at 91, his slider at 84-86 and his curveball at 79.
  • David Aardsma saw his velocity down in his 2nd game on back to back days, but recovered to strike out Carlos Gomez on a 95 mile per hour fastball (Gomez never had a chance on any FB thrown in the AB). For his inning, he was siting 89-95 with the fastball (and 89-92 before the Gomez AB) and threw an 84 mile per hour slider. You have to worry about the loss of velocity he showed in this appearance after throwing last night.
  • Craig Breslow was a LOOGY trying to get some work and show his command was back after struggling with walks thus far this season. Breslow showed good command, but hung a changeup to Jose Lopez, who deposited it in the seats. Breslow showed a fastball at 88-91, a slider at 84-85, a curveball at 72 and a changeup at 76-77 (only threw them to Lopez). Not sure what to think of him, as he is a pitcher that shouldn't be facing too many righties, but his changeup is effective enough to get them out. He is a major league pitcher, just depends on how much you trust him to get out the big left handed bats.
  • Brandon Morrow made it exciting by temporarily losing his control and throwing 10 straight pitches up and in to righthanders. His fastball was plus from high 3/4 release, sitting at 93-97 while his slider was 86-87 and his curveball was 85. He has closer stuff and can be a rock in the late innings with his fastball, but these temporary command losses can't be happening, though it was his first game back from the DL. Chance to be a real special closer.
  • Rob Johnson is a 26 year old, 6-1, 215 pound catcher. He has a medium frame with a slightly open stance. His game is devoted to the defensive side of the ball, as he shows a plus arm, frames pitches very well and is very able to block balls in the dirt. That being said, we are looking at a major league backup. He double triggers, stepping when the pitcher begins his wind-up and then takes a mini step with a little toe turn as the ball is about to be released. The Twins also exposed a weakness to sliders down (and sliders period), as he struck out 3 times swinging at sliders. Johnson is a better hitter then some catchers who have nailed down back-up jobs though and I think he is in the Henry Blanco type defensive mold (and sadly, might even be a little weaker offensively). If he improves his pitch recognition and can lay off sliders, he is a very useful back up catcher.
  • I saw Matt Tolbert when I worked for Rochester and he is the same player. The 27 year old, 6-0, 185 pound infielder is a switch hitter with a medium frame that is maxed out. He has an athletic crouch in his stance with a little bat wiggle. He will never hit for much power and will be overexposed as a regular at 2B, but he does have a future as an utility infielder who may be able to spell at SS every once in awhile. He features the same stance on both sides of the plate and really accelerates his hands back as a trigger, almost as if he is cheating to hit a fastball. He is a very pesky 2-strike hitter and he understands his role, as he is very patient and hustles all over the field. A useful utility player, but will likely be over exposed as a full-time regular.
  • Every fly ball to left field was an adventure for Wladimir Balentien. He struggled in the Metrodome (seriously, who has a white dome for a baseball team), but showed some offensive ability. I think he has 20 home run power (though his swing does have some holes) and should be able to hit for a solid average, anywhere from .260 to .280. The issue is that if the power doesn't manifest itself, he is a very average corner outfielder and with prospects like Greg Halman looking to force the issue (10 HR's in AA, though only a .217 average in 106 AB's), Balentien has a very short window to try and impress. If he doesn't hit, he doesn't have much value, as his speed and defense are average tools.