Maybe I Spoke Too Soon

Am currently working to see if there is a way for me to get tape on a couple of things that have occurred:

AFL Rising Stars Game
AFL Championship Game

If I receive video for these, I will put up some brief observations (will put the scouting reports immediately into the software I use for them).

Check back around the end of December to see if I have added these brief notes.

That's All She Wrote

This blog will be shut down for the offseason.

I have a lot of work I am attempting to complete prior to the Winter Meetings in Indy and will not have time to update this blog much. Thus, I feel it is better to just say there will be no further postings.

This blog could be revived if I am working at BIS next year, but there will be no blog if I get a job with a big league team.

Feel free to check back on this blog at the beginning of next season to see if it will be back up and running. I am not going to delete it though, as I have not yet converted all my observations and other things into scouting reports (one of the 30 things on my list of things to do).

Thanks for reading!

The Minor League Free Agents

Everyone makes a big deal about the major league free agents, with good reason.

However, minor league free agents are something that can help accelerate the rebuilding process.

Attached below is the list by Baseball America of all the minor league free agents currently available.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1786#more-1786

Under The Radar Moves: October

Signings
OF Reggie Taylor: By Royals from Mexican League

Taylor, a 32 year old OF, hit .249-.300-.429 split between 2 teams in the Mexican League. Likely just AAA filler.

Filed For Free Agency:

RHP Scott Proctor
Missed all of 2009 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.
Likely Signing: Minor League Deal.


LHP Dave Davidson
In 1 inning in the majors with the Marlins, allowed 5 earned runs.
Likely Signing: Minor League Deal.


LHP Will Ohman
Had a 5.84 ERA with the Dodgers before going down in May with a season ending arm injury.
Likely Signing: 1-Year Deal, though he may get just a minor league deal.

C Kenji Johjima
Returned to Japan
Signed: 4 yr, 21 million with the Hanshin Tigers (Japan)

3B Melvin Mora
.260-.321-.358 in 450 at bats with Orioles.
Likely Signing: 2-Year Deal, likely 1 or 2 million a year as a bench bat for NL team.

C Chad Moeller
.258-.313-.438 in 89 at bats with Orioles.
Likely Signing: Minor League Deal

RHP Doug Brocail
4.58 ERA in 20 games with Astros with 13 walks and 9 strikeouts in 17 and 2/3 innings.
Likely Signing: Nothing. I expect him to retire.


Placed/Claimed On Waivers:

RHP Shawn Hill: By Padres, Released
OF Cliff Floyd: By Padres, Released
RHP Cha Seung Baek: By Padres, Released
OF Alejandro De Aza: By Marlins, Claimed By White Sox
UTIL Jason Bourgeois: By Brewers, Claimed by Astros
LHP Justin Thomas: By Mariners, Claimed by Pirates
LHP Sean Henn: By Orioles, Claimed by Blue Jays


Trades:
Dodgers trade INF Tony Abreu to Diamondbacks to complete Jon Garland trade.

Abreu went 2-8 with the Dodgers this year and hit .353-.385-.615 at AAA Albuquerque. Will likely make the D'Backs team out of spring training and will compete with (as of right now) Augie Ojeda and Ryan Roberts for the starting 2B job.


Released:
OF So Taguchi: By Cubs
LHP Ken Takahashi: By Mets

Rule 5 Draftee Returned:
RHP Terrell Young: Taken By Nats, returned to Reds.

Young, the top overall pick in the Rule 5 draft, went down with inflammation in his right shoulder in spring training and never got a chance to show what he could do.

Scouting: Does Anyone Really Know?

Amateur scouting (any sport) is one of the most inexact sciences in this world. Scouts are constantly asked to evaluate a prospect and attempt to project them out 3 or 4 years down the road.

I got my 1st real attempt at doing this last year. The Rays just went through some of their minor league releases and within that were some guys I scouted:

RHP Kevin Boggan
RHP Jesse Darcy
RHP Jose Mejias
LHP Glenn Gibson

Let's look at what I said about these prospects and I will also list their 2008 and 2009 stats. All grades on 2-8 scouting scale.

Kevin Boggan:
Grade Given: 2
Stuff: FB (85-89), CB (75-76), SL (80-82), CU (75-76)
Acquired: 19th round pick out of Boston College (575th overall)
Comments: High, max effort delivery with limbs flying everywhere. Always felt that he just didn't have the stuff to be a big league prospect.
Stats '08 (Low A): 36-0, 1-4, 3.10, 72.2-70-8-16-55
Stats '09 (High A): 34-0, 2-6, 4.28, 54.2-64-5-16-36
Accurate Grade: Y

Jesse Darcy:
Grade Given: 3.5
Stuff: FB (87-91), SL (75-81), Knuckle Curve (71-76), CU (74-79)
Acquired: 38th round pick out of Manhattan College (1136th overall)
Comments: Somewhat projectable (6-4, 205 pound) frame. Don't see more velocity coming and hitters will adapt as he moves up.
Stats '08 (Low A): 29-19, 8-3, 3.05, 133-124-12-15-98
Stats '09 (High A): 22-16, 3-9, 5.24, 103-128-14-21-45
Accurate Grade: N. Had me fooled. Put up nothing short of a dominant season at Low A, showing above average command of all his offerings and even teased with a slider that looked to be major league average. Thought he would hit a bump at AA, but didn't see it coming at High A. Also shows how fragile a life as a minor league ballplayer is and if your a late round pick, don't have an off year.

Jose Mejias:
Grade Given: 2
Stuff: FB (88-92), CB (71-81), CU (72-76)
Acquired: International (Venezuela) by Phillies, then signed by Tampa Bay
Comments: Loses some velocity out of stretch. Has some toughness questions.
Stats '08 (Low A): 34-0, 3-2, 4.73, 59-59-7-27-33
Stats '09 (High A): 19-3, 1-2, 6.41, 46.1-58-11-11-30
Accurate Grade: Y

Glenn Gibson:
Grade Given: 4.5
Stuff: FB (83-88), CB (67-69), CU (76-80)
Acquired: 4th Round pick by Washington out of Center Moriches HS. Traded to Rays as lone return in Elijah Dukes trade.
Comments: Should gain weight (6-4, 195) as he ages. Fastball command is killing him, causing him to fall behind way too much. Above average curve movement wise with an average change.
Stats '08 (Low A): 22-12, 4-8, 7.44, 78.2-104-12-41-49
Stats '08 (SS): 10-0, 0-0, 6.65, 21.2-31-2-14-23
Stats '09 (SS): 14-3, 3-4, 6.89, 32.2-40-4-20-19
Accurate Grade: Hell N. I thought he was a back end starter thinking his command would return and he would add velocity. This is the real stunner when it comes to him: the year prior to being acquired by the Rays, he pitched at SS Vermont with the Nats and put up this line: 12-12, 4-3, 3.10, 58-47-3-15-58. He struck out a hitter an inning and showed good command. I always (and still) felt like his off-speed stuff was good enough to be a back-end guy, his fastball command just had to catch up and he was definitely still projectable. Oh well, I wasn't getting paid for that assesment I guess...

That is always the intriguing thing, to go back and check out your prior scouting reports (especially with guys in Low A) and see how they develop. Anyone can scout the Jason Heyward's (7.5 grade), Mike Stanton's (6.5) and Madison Bumgarner's (7). The ability to scout the fringe average guys and differentiate who will make it from who won't is the main separator.

Quick Note: The 3 guys on this Catfish team that most scouts seemed to like in my year there ('08) were these guys:

Alex Cobb (4.5, back-end starter to me, others saw a possible middle of the rotation guy)
'08 Stats (Low A): 25-25, 9-7, 3.29, 139.2-113-16-35-97
'09 Stats (High A): 24-23, 8-5, 3.03, 124.2-116-6-31-107

Austin Hinkle (4.5, solid middle reliever in majors)
'08 Stats (Low A): 33-0, 3-4, 2.51, 46.2-32-2-19-67
'09 Stats (High A): 36-3, 2-6, 3.53, 74-61-7-36-65

Mike McCormick (4, back-up catcher to me, some saw a future starter)
'08 Stats (Low A): .216-.276-.365, 375, 13-49, 31-93, 2-1
'09 Stats (Low A): .165-.272-.252, 218, 4-13, 29-76, 1-0
'09 Stats (High A): .170-.261-.321, 106, 3-8, 11-35, 2-2

Still want to be a scout?