When I posted earlier discussing the trade regarding the A's and Cards, I said the A's screwed themselves, as I would rather have the package they gave up then the one they got back. This debate essentially centered on Gonzalez vs. Wallace.
Obviously, the ends can't yet be known (and won't be for at least another 5-10 years), but my observation is looking pretty good at this stage.
C-Gon, 24 in October, is coming off a 4 for 8 doubleheader with 2 homers, bringing his season average up to .285. He now has 6 home runs on the season with a slugging % over .500 after that power outburst. Yes, his home park helps, but if he maintains that level of production, he looks to be very similar to another player the Athletics gave up on b/c they thought he wouldn't hit for the power to maintain a corner outfield spot: Andre Ethier.
Meanwhile, Brett Wallace, 23 in August, has set the world on fire. Since being acquired from St. Louis, Wallace is hitting .253-.323-.386 with 2 home runs in 86 at bats. On the season, Wallace is hitting the following at the 2 levels:
AA: .281-.403-.438 in 128 at bats
AAA: .282-.339-.413 in 305 at bats.
If you are a stat guy and look at his minor league #'s, this should concern you:
AA: 18 BB, 34 K
AAA: 23 BB, 61 K
Obviously, pitchers have either A) Found a hole in his swing or B) Pitched to him aggressively because they aren't scared about him hitting the ball out of the park.
The main problem with Wallace is the ability to hit for average and get on base are the only tools he provides. His defense isn't good at 1B (though neither was Pujols when he got called up, so you can turn yourself into a good defender), he has no speed and will not hit for much power.
From a scouting perspective (and I have watched both players play), you always look for the tools. Gonzalez is faster, a better overall defender and should put up similar numbers to Wallace offensively playing in Coors (and likely if he was in OAK as well, as his ability to hit gaps in that ballpark is more beneficial to speedsters (cough Rajai Davis cough) then plodders such as Wallace.
Wallace has received a ton of hype (and deservedly so) for his college career of hitting and his strong first season in pro ball. However, the wheels have started to come off at AAA, which is a terrible sign for a prospect, especially playing in the hitter friendly PCL. Next season will be revealing for Wallace, where he decides if this level of play is his actual level (such as Jeremy Reed did after rolling through I believe 3 levels the year he debuted in the majors) or just rolling through AAA after good work in the offseason and being the A's starting 1Bmen the 2nd half of the season (as many a prospect have done).
Overall, I believe C-Gon is a much better prospect (and will be a better big leaguer) then Brett Wallace. Disagree with me? Chime in with why Brett Wallace will be a better big leaguer.
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8 years ago
I will say that the sample size in AAA is far to small to really draw anything from Wallace's performance. I agree that next year will be huge for him. I'm sure the A's are hoping he'll be ready for the Majors by the end of next season.
ReplyDeleteWe've been over why I don't think it's perfectly comparable to just say, "The A's would rather have Brett Wallace than Carlos Gonzalez" because the A's also got a year's worth of control of Matt Holliday, and that definitely had value. I admit it's still pretty comparable, though. Gonzalez looks good now but both players are still young.
As an aside, we were killing time looking at defensive metrics last night (yeah, things got pretty crazy on a Saturday night), and I discovered something I was completely unaware of: Andre Ethier is a terrible defensive right fielder and it takes away from much of his offensive value. Just thought that was interesting.
Yea, I still have issues with that. Holliday dd have value for that year worth of control. It ended up being Brett Wallace, Shane Peterson and Clayton Mortensen.
ReplyDeleteAnd even though Ethier doesn't grade out as a solid outfielder, I have to think that factoring in his batting ability against his park that he should be a strong starting OF for a contender overall, especially with Matt Kemp patrolling CF since he can get to almost every ball.
You expect Gonzalez to maintain a .285 average with a couple homers a week and slug over.500?!? Heck ya he'll be better than Wallace then. I just don't see that happening. I also wouldn't look much into Wallace's struggles with the A's. Not even 100 AB's to focus on. That's like looking at Justin Upton's April stats this year and saying he won't turn it around. I won't deny that I would take Car-Go over Wallace if I were GM, but that's b/c I like speed and defense. I still think Wallace will be a solid player who will hit around 20 bombs, and 35+ doubles. It will obviosuly be about 3-4 years before you see that. Car-Go is a better prospect, but I wouldn't say he is much better.
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