I have stuck to a list of around 300 some players breaking down the AAA video. Most of the AAA video is fairly good with a CF camera allowing you to see pitch movement and how a hitters aligns. Any velocities I find on here are thanks to Durham, who hooked up their stadium gun to their "telecast" and that is useful.
Stumbled upon some video from Lexington (Low A, South Atlantic League) which has a pretty good rotation of Jordan Lyles, Ross Seaton, Robert Bono, Kyle Greenwalt and Brad D(more on him below). This would have been amazing, except for the fact they use more camera angles then the Yankees use money. They very rarely use their CF angle, instead opting for an angle behind home plate (about useless) or zooming in on the pitcher/hitter. They are about the most frustrating video to watch and most of the time I stop, but I have found some things that are useful.
This will likely be the only time I post on these guys (though I won't stop watching). My plan was to now jump to June games and break those down (and hopefully get some All-Star Games) and then jump again to September to see how they react. The hope is to find these guys when they are locked in and struggling.
I determined these players that I followed (keep in mind some of them haven't yet debuted in AAA) by name value (guys like Stephen Head and Jon Jay have always stuck out to me), stats (guys like Brian Dopirak and Kila Ka'aihue have put up solid numbers) and personal preference (Some guys I want to see that casual fans have no interest in, such as Drew O'Neil, a high school teammate or Josh Kroeger, who has always intrigued me for some reason)
If you have questions on anyone not mentioned, feel free to make a comment. More then likely I have watched them.
If you disagree, please voice your concerns, as this way I can look for that in June and September.
Here is the 1-month breakdown on what I have seen:
Atlanta Braves:
None. They don't have too many guys on my list to evaluate. The Rome-Lexington series has also been impossible to evaluate through video. Saw brief glimpses of
Tim Gustafson, who profiles as a reliever to me. Of guys not on their team during the season, I think they took good risks on
Brent Clevlen (formerly a Tiger) and
Eric Duncan (formerly a Yankee) as minor league free agents. Clevlen didn't show the defensive ability that Baseball America says he has (the hardest thing to evaluate on video is an IF or OF's first step), but he does show the power and shows spurts where he is squaring pitches up consistently. Duncan, the former 1st round pick of the Yankees, still shows good tools and I think he profiles solidly as a bench bat in the NL, as he will not hit for the power needed for a corner infielder. He isn't yet ready and needs more refinement, but I think the change in scenery will do him well and after watching him hit and seeing his swing mechanics, surprised he hasn't hit for average.
Todd Redmond pitched against Durham and showed a pitcher whose mechanics deemed a move to the bullpen but whose stuff deemed staying in the rotation. He worked at 86-89 with a 2-seamer and touched 90, 91 and 92 once. His curve was a power curve that really throws you off because it was 76-82. His change was 77-81 and his split was 76-77 with the split serving as his out pitch to lefties.
Mariano Gomez compiled good numbers at AAA Gwinnett, but didn't get a call-up and doesn't really have a role as a lefty who works with a fastball at 88-91 and no real breaking pitch to speak of.
Baltimore Orioles:
Norfolk has a couple hitters that I took the time to look at.
Justin Turner showed well in a brief September call-up, but to me profiles as a solid utility infielder who can play SS. I don't know how we will continue to hit for average from his current set-up, as it is fairly active. Also feel like he should hit for a little more power then he has shone. And for anyone holding out hope that
Mike Costanzo will come through and make his acquisition a success, good luck. Long swing with no real pitch recognition ability and can't hit a breaking pitch from a lefty.
Chicago Cubs:
Have just begun breaking down
Chris Robinson.
Chicago White Sox:
Kannapolis played Lexington for a 4-game set and they gave me enough to know that I don't like
Jorge Castillo or
Jordan Cheatham and think they max out in AA or lower.
Tyler Kuhn is an intriguing bat who looks like he should provide some gap power and is a guy I can't break down through video, as his ? mark is position and where he profiles. Good looking line drive oriented stick. The big names on Kannapolis (according to Baseball America) are
Eduardo Escobar and
Jon Gilmore. Failed to get a decent feel for either one of these guys in this time, but Escobar seems like he is far away while Gilmore should begin his ascent to Chicago and has the potential to be a middle of the order bat. On the pitching side, saw a few guys that may have a future in a big league bullpen in
Nate Jones, who looked like he threw a fairly hard fastball but nothing else, and
Drew O'Neil, who profiles as a sidearming ROOGY to force groundballs, though he needs to refine his command. 22 year old
Stephen Sauer also looked good out of the pen and the White Sox are now attempting to develop him as a starter apparently. I believe the scouting report when he was drafted that he was working at 88-91 and showed a 12-6 downer curve that was a swing and miss offering and a cutter/slider hybrid that was more of a show pitch. His change looked fairly refined as well.
Cincinnati Reds:
Chris Valaika was the Reds 4th best prospect entering the season. That was WAY too high and I fail to understand what Baseball America saw. Valaika is a useful guy, but he is way too mechanical to stay at SS with a below average arm and needs to be a 2Bmen or a utility guy. His bat looks okay, though he struggled to put up numbers.
Wilkin Castillo's best hope is to be a super utility guy, as he showed he can catch and play some OF (and could probably learn 2B), but he isn't very good at any of the positions and his bat isn't good enough that you have to find a spot for him. Have tried to watch
Sam LeCure twice, but twice the video hasn't worked which has been extremely disappointing.
Cleveland Indians:
The Indians had a trio of guys I wanted to look at. The top name on my list was
Jordan Brown who had a strong year statistically in AAA, but never got a look when the Indians were trying out everyone and their mother. After watching him, you can understand why. I believe he is a perfect comparable with Oscar Salazar. He will hit in the majors, but not enough to hold down a corner outfield or 1B position. More of an average hitter, I see him as a good fit on a NL bench where he can pinch hit and other things (just like Salazar).
Wes Hodges may be ready for a big league cameo next year, though he will be a little rough in regards to defense due to his throwing mechanics and his swing implies he should hit for more power then he has shown thus far.
Stephen Head is a name that has shone out to me since his days at Ole Miss and it appears both myself and the Indians have misevaluated him and he is a non-prospect. Not an Indian during the April season,
Jason Donald profiles to me as a utility infielder. Unlike Baseball America, I think he could stay at SS if he had to, but isn't going to beat out Asdrubal. Luis Valbuena is also a better option to Donald in my opinion. Donald shows like he should be able to hit for average and power and I think this season was a fluke and he should have a strong bounceback campaign at AAA next season.
Mitch Talbot (Rays) should be able to fill one of the holes in the Indians rotation. Comes from an over the top with quiet, repeatable mechanics and showed a 2-seamer with some run in on righties and some sink (though the movement can be inconsistent), a change with good fade from lefties and some sink that he can throw for strikes, a tight 2-7 slider with good late cut action and a 12-6 downer curve with good tilt and slightly above average depth. Primarily FB-CB and can throw all his off-speed stuff for strikes and profiles as a back of the rotation starter.
Detroit Tigers:
This is a team that will need to rely on some of their younger guys to step up and 2 have made a favorable impression on me.
Wilkin Ramirez is extremely questionable defensively and may get lost in LF in Comerica. However, this guy will hit if given the chance (for both power and average) and will be an asset in the batting order, though he can get pull heavy at times and will go through spurts where he swings at everything. The other was the man they had acquired from the Yankees,
Austin Jackson. He showed me enough to think he will be able to stick in CF (though some of his routes will be interesting) and I think his stick can play in the majors this coming season, though not necessarily that well. He still shows a problem recognizing (and laying off) the slider down and away and can get overaggressive and pull heavy at times. I think his power bat will return however (though Comerica will make it look it hasn't).
Will Rhymes and
Brent Dlugach profile as utility guys at best and neither will hit much in the big leagues.
Florida Marlins:
The Marlins have a toolsy OF who is trying to get a chance to prove himself at the big league level. No, I am not referring to Maybin, but rather
Jai Miller. Miller is a true 5 tool guy, but he is still very raw. He flashes ability in all 5 phases of the game and then will turn around the next game and strike out 4 times and look bad everytime at the plate. He needs to refine his approach (very pull oriented) and learn to go the other way and develop a better plan at the plate.
Gaby Sanchez to me is a placeholder for
Logan Morrison and doesn't profile to do much, as he doesn't show much power and seems to swap between being over aggressive and too patient. The pitcher they got from the Astros,
Robert Bono, is an athletic guy who looked like he was operating with a high 80's to low 90's sinker with some raw offspeed offerings and solid command. I must have seen one of the few quality outings as a starter from
Brett Sinkbeil. He looked like he threw gas with a heavy fastball that forced a lot of groundouts. He was locating that pitch as well as his above average 2-7 slider, which he buried or threw for a strike in any count. His change was more of a show pitch and really hasn't developed. Likely a future set-up guy, if his command is like what I saw (plan on watching some bullpen appearances to see how he looks).
Ryan Tucker showed about the cleanest mechanics I think I have seen and he went down to an arm injury. He showed a hard fastball, though it was fairly straight, a tight 2-7 slider that could be sweeping but was inconsistent break-wise and a change that actually is close to being usable. Was lobbying to be a reliever to try and make the team out of the spring and got an arm injury out of getting to start in AAA. Interesting to see how he bounces back.
Chris Schroder (A's) could be a usable cog for them out of the pen in the way Brendan Donnelly was last year and showed a pretty straight 4-seamer, a cutter, a sweeping 3-8 slider and a change.
James Houser (Rays) is a worthwhile gamble, but he showed a fastball at 82-86 that touched 87, 88 and 89, a good 12-6 curve at 70-73, a solid change at 74-78 and a Jamie Moyer like cutter at 77-80.
Houston Astros:
Not yet seen their AAA team, but they have another Michael Bourn coming through the system in
Jay Austin, an 18 year old playing full season ball. I graded him out as a 55, which is an everyday starter who will make a few all-star teams. He is extremely fast (though he has a little too much loft to his swing at this stage for my taste) and he uses it well on the bases, where he is aggressive and in the field where he is a plus defender. While his stats weren't overwhelming, any time an 18 year old holds his own in a fullseason league is news. Obviously needs to improve his pitch recognition ability and further refining his skills, but he has a bright future.
Federico Hernandez is a guy who is much more valuable then his stats indicate. He shows tremendous feel for the game as a young catcher and does a tremendous job controlling a game and working with a staff. However, his bat is very raw. He is a switch hitter, so it bodes well for his chances to be a solid back-up catcher in 3 or 4 years.
Brandon Barnes made it to AA after starting the season at Lexington and profiles as a solid average 4th OF.
Ebert Rosario has all the tools in the world and has a ton of projection left, but at 22 it is getting tougher for the Astros to wait to turn his tools into production. The Astros have some pitching coming, though it is a couple of years away at best.
Jordan Lyles is the real deal and profiles as a # 2 starter in the majors. He looked like he was throwing 90-96, though it did straighten out on him on occasion and didn't have great movement to begin with. His change needed further refinement, as he appeared to slow his arm down, but his curve is a 12-6 pitch with above average depth and good tilt that he just needs to learn how to bury, as he can already throw it for strikes to set up his high fastball. Very clean delivery and generates easy velocity. Had
Ross Seaton twice thus far and video hasn't cooperated either time, but he shows a nice and easy delivery (though he can get a little bouncy) with a good moving fastball from what I have gathered. The other pitcher that really excites me is 19 year old
Brad Dydalewicz. He reminds me of Marc Rzepczynski (and not just because spelling both their names wins you a medal). He is a quality athlete who comes from a 3/4 release, though his delivery has some effort to it being a rock and fire delivery with a fast tempo. His fastball is a true sinker from a lefty and had good sink, though he had inconsistent command of this pitch. His curve was a power, sweeping 11-5 pitch that served as his out pitch and he flashes the ability to throw it for strikes or bury it, but wasn't consistent. His slider and change are behind his other 2 pitches, but flash the ability to be major league average. Is an emotional guy on the mound who has a great pickoff/balk move. Ceiling of a middle of the rotation starter, though apparently the Astros wanted to develop him as a Billy Wagner type (nowhere near that velocity) and just started him to get him innings. Bet that has changed. The scary part for NL Central teams is that Lyles is 18 and Dydalewicz and Seaton are just 19 (but they are young pitchers, so anything can happen)
Kansas City Royals:
None. Hoping to get an Omaha game to see Ka'aihue and end a debate...
Los Angeles Dodgers:
Albuquerque is the 1 AAA angle where nothing can be done to evaluate.
Los Angeles Angels:
None.
New York Mets:
Apparently the Mets rushed another young infielder who goes by the name
Jose Coronado. He is intriguing with a lot of tools, but he is likely to be ruined. Shows good plate discipline as a switch hitting shortstop, but his defense is very inconsistent. A guy who could use a full season at High A or AA to refine some things before getting a look in AAA. Before going down with a torn labrum,
Dillon Gee showed a good package at being a back of the rotation starter. Featuring a high 3/4 release from a clean delivery and the command to throw any pitch in any count, he was very impressive in a start against Pawtucket. He worked quickly with a fastball with some run in on righties and some sink, though he could nibble too much with it and that flashed above average run sink and good run in on righties and a change with good fade from lefties and some sink he would throw in any count (and was his preferred pitch in 3-2 counts) and loved throwing it in hitter's counts. He operates with those 2 pitches the 1st time through the order primarily and then mixes in a 2-7 slider with average bite that he could start off the plate to be a swing and miss pitch or throw a flatter one for strikes and a 12-6 downer curve with average depth and okay tilt that he would throw for strikes or bury. Interesting to see how he comes back.
Eddie Kunz features a devastating sinker, but little command of the pitch and 2 raw off-speed offerings (a straight change with little cation and tight 2-7 slider that he can only throw as an out pitch and that he liked to throw on the hands of lefties). Is rawer then you would expect of a former 1st round pick in AAA.
New York Yankees:
Of the guys still there,
Kevin Russo profiles as a useful utility guy with good speed and
J. Brent Cox still resembles the guy he replaced at Texas (Huston Street) with an average fastball that he could command and an above average 2-7 slider that he could bury for strikeouts or throw it for a quality strike and he profiles as a solid middle reliever, though the number of sliders he throws has taken a toll on his arm, already having Tommy John Surgery once.
Oakland Athletics:
On this A's team, the guy I had the toughest time reading resides. Before I get to him, let me quickly touch on 2 other guys:
Jeff Baisley has great tools and I love his set-up at the plate, but his tools just haven't translated into production and is entering a make or break season.
Anthony Recker is a guy I am a big fan of. I think he profiles as a starting catcher if all goes well. However, I want to see if he has made an adjustment, as he was triggering too late and thus was either behind on fastballs or driving everything the other way. Good looking stick with a little rawness still to knock out of him defensively.
Sean Doolittle is a guy I keep trying to think about what he could be. He is a rhythm hitter with swing mechanics very similar to that of Chone Figgins. He has a plus arm and is an average runner. I keep going back and forth between a 4th OF and a starting RF, but I have decided on a starting RF with a good average and 10-15 homers, similar to Ryan Sweeney with lesser defense.
Marcus McBeth (Red Sox) is a worthwhile signing as a possible relief option, as he shows a diabolical plus changeup, but a slider that is more of the get me over variety and a sinker with some movement. Would like him better on a NL team in a big park (like San Diego).
Jared Lansford was one of the first high school pitchers the A's took (or atleast him and Craig Italiano got the pub like they were), but he barely profiles as a major league reliever, featuring a sinker and a slider (with neither pitch major league ready).
James Simmons was renowned as amongst the most major league ready of the pitchers available when he was drafted in the 1st round and still looks that way. Always going to be a back of the rotation guy, he pounds the zone (primarily gloveside corner) with a fastball that has a little movement, a 2-7 slider he is more comfortable throwing for strikes then burying, a change with good late action, though it can just float to the plate at time and a 12-6 curve with good downward action and above average depth. Fast worker who commands all his pitches well, but lacks a true out pitch.
Chad Reineke is an organizational soldier who's only fit in a big league bullpen would be as the blowout guy.
Scott Patterson (Padres) profiles as a solid middle reliever who features a straight 4-seamer and a hammer 12-6 curve that flashes above average tilt to go with an average changeup. Has some definite injury questions, as he has quite the bizarre delivery.
Philadelphia Phillies:
None that are currently on the team.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
There is a lot of talk about a guy being available who teams should jump on and his name is
Neil Walker. He is blocked by Andy LaRoche now and Pedro Alvarez in the future, but he is talented enough to be at least a platoon player next season. He is an above average defender who can make every play necessary and then some at third base. He shows flashes with the stick and the one bugaboo on him (plate discipline) was non existent early in the season, as he worked counts and consistently got himself into hitter's counts.
Shelby Ford had a lost season and still profiles as a utility man, though one who needs to really adjust his approach at the plate.
Erik Kratz profiles as your ideal back-up catcher, as he is a good catch and throw guy and shows enough offensively where he won't hurt you in the lineup and can offer some production. I prefer Kratz to Jaramillo and Diaz.
Yoslan Herrera got a lot of hype when he signed out of Cuba, but didn't look to break 84 with his fastball, making his solid curve and splitter very hittable and cement the fact he likely won't pitch in the majors again.
Justin Thomas (Mariners) was signed to try and win one of the lefty bullpen spots and he has an outside chance at it, featuring an above average slider he can spot (though throws too much) and an average fastball. In West Virginia, the Pirates had a trio of youngsters, led by AFL alum
Chase D'Arnaud. He played SS here and he may be good enough to stick there. He is either a 2B or SS down the road and is still a talented prospect.
Robbie Grossman was one of their bonus babies, but this 18 year old is further away then Jay Austin. He is a plus runner, but is raw in every other area. He has a below average arm that will limit him to LF or CF and he doesn't hit for the power to carry a corner. Even further away is 20 year old
Quincy Latimore, who is another speedster with similar question marks but has a worse approach at the plate and resembles an athlete trying to play baseball as opposed to a baseball player who is an athlete.
San Diego Padres:
Chad Huffman profiles as a 4th OF and one who is not a good fit for PETCO, as he is your classic old ballplayer. Can get overaggressive at the plate at times and struggle to recognize breaking pitches. Have my concerns that his power #'s are PCL inflated, but shows above average bat speed and is a slightly above average runner.
Mike Ekstrom got some big league time last season and still profiles to me as a solid middle reliever.
Gabe DeHoyos is a butterball shaped reliever who looked to be throwing hard and had an absolute hammer curve that he relies on to be his out pitch, but struggles to throw it for strikes.
Cesar Ramos still profiles to me better as a back of the rotation starter (especially in PETCO) then as a reliever.
Seattle Mariners:
Mike Carp was in line to be the Mariners 1Bmen until the Casey Kotchman acquisition. Likely a good thing, as I don't feel Carp is quite ready yet. He isn't a great defender, which makes you wonder if he may be trade bait with the new vision in Seattle. He isn't a big power bat, but is more of a guy that will hit for a high average. He is at his best when he is using all fields and just lining the ball gap to gap, though he will get to times where he gets pull oriented.
Gaby Hernandez came from a high 3/4 release in a clean delivery and features a 2-seamer with some movement, a straight 4-seamer (tends to miss up with both fastballs, bad idea), a slurvy 1-7 curve with below average depth but good tilt that he can bury or throw for a FAT strike that should get hammered, a change that looks like a fastball out of his hand and some fade and then a cutter with good cut and some sink that he relied on too much. The 2nd and 3rd times through the order, he used the cutter as his primary fastball and also tended to miss up with it.
Jesus Delgado is still a minor league free agent as of this writing, but I would take a chance on him if he was healthy. He came from a max effort delivery with a cocking action and a violent head jerk, but looked like he was throwing gas (though it was also dead straight) to go with a power 12-7 curve that is a true out pitch that he could also throw for strikes. His change is also a quality offering that he needs to throw more. His command is iffy and his body type isn't great, but he is worth a minor league contract.
St. Louis Cardinals:
Allen Craig is one of those guys stats guys look at and wonder why he isn't up in the majors. After watching him hit, he is ready from an offensive standpoint. His problem is that he has a quirky release at 3B when, coupled with a slightly below average arm, means he can't play 3B full time and isn't a much better fit in LF. May just be a professional hitter type. A couple guys I do like are
Jon Jay and
Bryan Anderson. Anderson seems to have fallen under the radar and behind guys like Posey and Jason Castro when discussing catchers, but he needs to be in the same discussion. Similarily built like Posey, he is an athletic catcher who will need to answer questions on whether he can catch for a full season. His bat is close to ready, though it can be slow at times. More of a gap to gap hitter who will hit the occasional home run to RF. Jay profiles similarily and is a guy (like Head) that I have liked since he was in college, which for him was Miami. His set-up and trigger is similar to that of Cliff Floyd with the hand movement, but he is more of a gap to gap hitter with good speed who can spot play in CF for you.
Matt Scherer featured an average fastball and a good splitter, but doesn't profile as anything more then organizational depth.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Maybe it's because I used to work for one of their minor league affiliates, but more guys piqued my early interest here.
Reid Brignac has the tools to eventually be a starting SS, though he will need to refine his offensive approach and make better in game adjustments. He profiles with 15-20 homer power and above average defense, but will struggle to hit for average until he makes those adjustments.
John Jaso still profiles to me as a solid utility player who can catch on occasion. He has improved himself defensively and is a useful hitter who will draw walks and hit some doubles, but can't catch full time.
Justin Ruggiano is a 5-tool guy who has never met a breaking pitch he couldn't recognize, but he shows himself well enough you keep hoping that 1 year the light will turn on. The Rays also had 2 guys who won't make much of an impact in the majors that I scouted:
Elliot Johnson, who profiles as a guy who can play everywhere and hit like he is worrying about where he is going to play next and
Chris Nowak, who hit a 400 foot bomb when I saw him live at Montgomery, but doesn't have the bat to carry a corner infield position as a starter and is another guy who has some struggles recognizing breaking pitches and/or catching up to a good fastball. Bowling Green had some guys I really wanted to watch, but the camera angles were terrible. This includes
Matt Moore (mechanics looked interesting),
Tim Beckham (line drive swing, but really doesn't have the body type of a SS) and
Jake Jefferies (who has a stat line sabermetrics love but is rough defensively)
Texas Rangers:
Max Ramirez has been a guy I have always loved and this was the 1st year he really didn't hit. I still believe in his bat and he is refining his ability catching, but I think he may have to be a 1Bmen.
Greg Golson is all tools with zero refinement or ability to hit an offspeed pitch.
Joaquin Arias and
German Duran are utility infielders at best, with myself preferring Duran because he is faster with a lower maintenance swing.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Jarrett Hoffpauir (Cardinals) was claimed off waivers in November, but profiles as nothing more then a utility infielder and one who will not provide much with the bat at that.
