First 2 Weeks of June (Final Post)

This will be the final blog posting, as I have gained a position with a major league team and this blog will now no longer have info put in it.

Boston Red Sox (Pitchers):
About the only Low-A series I watched involved Greenville. First the pitchers. RHP Stolmy Pimentel, who is just 19 at the time of his pitching, showed like a top 15 prospect. He is very advanced and while he doesn't have great raw stuff, his command is very good. He features a sinking fastball he can spot, a 12-6 curveball that shows potential and a change that will flash as a plus pitch. I think there is some more velocity there and he projects as a # 3 starter to me. RHP Leandro Marin worked with an explosive 4-seamer that he had some inconsistsent command of and a 2-7 slider with some bite that shows potential though it can be a hanger. Profiles as a solid middle reliever with the chance to be a set-up man. RHP Stephen Fife impressed in a matchup against Jordan Lyles, where he threw 5 no hit innings before being yanked. He features a good looking sinking fastball and a 12-6 downer curve that can be an out pitch that he needs to improve a bit in burying. His other 2 pitches (a 2-7 slider with okay bite and a change that shows potential that he struggles to throw for strikes) are a bit further behind. Profiles as a solid # 4 or # 5 starter or as a solid middle reliever. RHP Michael Lee is a massive 6-7 guy, but doesn't appear to have the overpowering stuff that is normally expected from a guy like that. Throws a fastball, curve and change and is an organizational arm. LHP Mitch Herold is a 23 year old who operates with an okay fastball and a slurve that is a little loopy which he also appears to tip based on his arm action. More of an organizational arm.

Cleveland Indians:
RHP Brandon Hynick is your typical Indians pitcher and the Indians tend to value the pitchability factor higher then most and Hynick is another example. Acquired from the Rockies, Hynick's best projection has him as a # 4 or # 5 starter. He operates with a fastball that looked to be at 88-90 that he could spot, a 12-6 curve that he could spot but isn't good enough to be an out pich, a splitter with above average diving action and an okay slider. LHP Nick Hagadone is the opposite. While he has yet to be extended (and thus hasn't developed his change as much as a pitcher normally has by now) he operates with a plus fastball and a sharp 11-5 slider with good bite that he struggles to throw for strikes but can bury. His change is a bit further away. Profiles as a lefty reliever in the mold of Matt Thornton (with a better breaking pitch) or as a lefty starter similar to that of Derek Holland. He should get every chance to prove he can't start. Now the hitters (for the record, it seemed just about everyone on this team was a prospect).

Boston Red Sox (Hitters): Editing mistake and don't want to retype everything.
1B Anthony Rizzo is a legitimate 1B prospect and features a beautiful left handed swing. More gap power now, but I think he should hit 15-20 homers as a pro and profiles to hit for a .300 or better average. Grade 55 overall. OF David Mailman is a guy I really like and think his stick is pretty good, one based on lining the ball into the gaps and just hitting the ball all over the field. His bat needs to carry him though, as I see him being limited to LF defensively. 3B Will Middlebrooks still has a lot of tools, but no pitch recognition ability and a longer swing and don't see him as anything more then an organizational player (and a guy who has been hyped way too much). OF Mitch Dening profiles to me as a 4th OF who can play some CF. Still raw and needs to make some adjustments with his swing (heavy pull guy) and defensively (bit of a slow first step). They had 2 pretty good catchers in Ryan Lavarnway and Tim Federowicz. Lavarnway looks like he may struggle with good fastballs as he moves up the ladder and looks a bit awkward behind the plate as a bigger catcher (6-4) who may have knee problems. He does have very good power though. Federowicz is the opposite, as he is a guy who looks to slot very well into the 2nd spot of the order and looks to his the ball around the field with some gap power. Think he profiles as a solid backup catcher. SS Ryan Dent profiles as an utility infielder who can play everywhere and hit for a little average but not much power and is another organizational guy. OF Pete Hissey is another raw OF with a pretty left handed line drive based swing that may project for some pop if he hits the weight room and adds some muscle. Similar to Kalish with a lesser build.

Colorado Rockies:
CF Chris Frey actually impressed me, though his stats were nothing special. I think he can be the strong-side of a platoon in CF (maybe paired with Reed Johnson somewhere) and provide a solid batting average and slightly above average defense with good speed. LF Matt Miller looks to be nothing more then an organizational guy who is limited to LF and doesn't offer much power. INF Jonathan Herrera is a solid utility infield option who can play some short, but not play there full time and is a better fit at 2B. Will never hit for much power.

Detroit Tigers:
RHP Brooks Brown, who was acquired for C James Skelton from the D'Backs, looks the part of a sinkerballing righty. Brown worked at 86-91 with his fastball, 78-81 with his slider and 78-81 with his change. His sinker was solid, but neither off-speed pitch does much for me and he struggles to locate his stuff. He needs another year in AAA to try and get to his ceiling as a # 4 or # 5 starter or as a solid middle reliever.

Houston Astros:
RHP Henry Villar put up video game strikeout numbers, but don't expect those to last. He features a fastball with good late run in on righties, an average change and a slightly above average slider with solid bite. I think he could be a solid middle reliever, but want to see him pass the AA test.

Los Angeles Dodgers:
LHP Armando Zerpa was their top pick in the Rule 5 draft from the Red Sox low A team and he shows potential as a LOOGY and has a 50/50 chance of sticking with the big league club. He has a slinging arm action with a sinking fastball and a sweeping slider.

San Francisco Giants:
LHP Aaron King is another big armed lefty who appears to throw a hard fastball, but is very raw. He has quite a bit of command issues and still needs to develop a changeup. Profiles as a solid lefty reliever with a mid 90's fastball and a sweeping slider. SS Ehire Adrianza is very, very toolsy, but has a lot of maturing to do in regards to putting muscle on his body. His swing can get long, but nothing unexpected for a player of his age. Projects to be a pretty solid all-around shortstop as long as he adds some muscle to his frame (55 grade overall). OF Wendell Fairley was a guy I really liked when they drafted him, but he is fighting to just get himself into plans as being an organizational guy. He has a fast swing, but he struggles to recognize pitches or to get his front foot down, slowing his ability to recognize pitches. Best case for him now is to be a 4th OF unless he makes some big time improvements. C Matt Klimas projects to me as an organizational catcher, a guy who you stick in AAA and just wait and see if something happens to necessitate a call-up. Profiles as an average back-up catcher.

Toronto Blue Jays:
C J.P. Arencibia had his first real step back this past year. He still shows his great power bat (projecting to hit for 15-20 home runs in the majors) but he can not recognize sliders and is a very aggressive hitter who will get himself out. This year is the year he shows whether he is just another good defense, power hitting back-up catcher or one who has the ability to adjust and be a solid starter. My money is on the back-up.

Washington Nationals:
RHP Ryan Mattheus, who was acquired from the Colorado Rockies for Joe Beimel, went down with an arm injury that will likely cost him most or all of the upcoming 2010 season. Before the injury, he featured a fastball, slider and splitter. His fastball looked to be at about average to slightly above major league average in regards to velocity, but was pretty straight that he missed with in the middle of the plate. Both his slider (which is his out pitch) and his splitter flash as slightly above average, but he isn't consistent with them.

I will now be breaking down a couple things before the start of the season (and my job) in this order:

1) Break down as many of AAA Durham's home games with pitchers of note to get an idea on their stuff and velocities.

2) Break down as many of AAA Syracuse's games with all players still on the Nationals roster.

3) Break down as many of Low-A Lexington's games to get an idea for the next wave of guys.

If you have any questions on any of this or have a specific player you want me to look at, feel free to let me know at kaytea@bluffton.edu

The Blog Will Live On!

The Blog will live on, but will undergo a change in the type of data available.

This blog will now focus primarily on minor league reports for the upcoming baseball season. I have subscribed to MILB.TV, so I will break down 3 or 4 game series as they become available.

This blog will no longer have any major league breakdowns, though I am still working at BIS. My major league breakdowns will now be done through Excel and some other means and I will no longer be writing observations on this blog.

Look for this blog to return in mid to late April.

Dominican Winter League Breakdown

The DWL is currently in its final series, so I will keep an eye on it and see if any new players crop up that I want to watch (unlikely), and if there are, they will be included in the minors June wrap up.

The DWL is an offensive league and an older league, so there wasn't a ton to look at, but here is what I saw:

Hitters

Constanza, Jose: Age 26, Cleveland Indians Organization

The OF put up solid numbers, though he only played at AA at the age of 25. Solid hitter, but was a hitter that I got a feel that he was up there trying to force a walk rather then trying to get a hit. This is a guy that will never hit for much power at all, but is a plus runner. He profiles as a 4th OF who is limited to LF or CF due to a below average arm and he won't offer much with the bat. Not much of an upside to him, but he will likely get a few major league at bats at some point.

Francisco, Juan: Age 22, Cincinnati Reds Organization

Francisco can mash. He can also get into slumps. Another guy who swings at whatever is there, he reminds me of Pablo Sandoval, though he is just a left handed stick. They are built very similarly, profile similarly offensively and have/had defensive question marks in regards to 3B. As it relates to Francisco, he is a pull heavy hitter who is beginning to have the shift put on for him (or are at least heavily shading that way). He is a big swinger who takes the swing hard in case you hit it approach and has the strikeout number to prove it. He can jam himself at times also. He will hit for power and I think he will hit for a solid enough average. Defensively, I think he can stay at the hot corner, but has the arm (plus) to try the OF and see if that fits (since 1B is not an option with Votto coming up and Alonso behind him)

Lake, Junior: Age 19, Chicago Cubs Organization

Hi, I ooze tools. He is everything you look for in a prospect. He has all 5 tools, though they are still extremely raw. Offensively, he has a pull heavy approach and the pitch recognition of a 19 year old. If I was a hitting coach, I would love to have him and be able to refine what he does (though not as much as a prospect that is a little lower on this list). Has some things within his swing that he needs to refine (such as a longer trigger that creates a hitch, shortening his swing, etc.) but the raw tools are there for success. Defensively, he plays an above average shortstop with a good first steop on balls to his right and an above average arm with good footwork turning the double play. Needs to not stab at the ball with the backhand and just receive it, but he profiles very well as an All-Star shortstop (granted, is at least 3 years away) and a good defensive one. If Starlin Castro forces him off short, he should have more then enough bat to handle 2B and enough to handle 3B.

Peguero, Francisco: Age 21, San Francisco Giants Organization

If you thought Lake was raw, Peguero is even rawer. He has more tools then an Acme Toolbox, but is still learning to translate them. He has one of the worst stances and swings I have seen and he will need a lot of work to refine them. He is a pull heavy hitter who triggers too early and struggles to recognize off-speed stuff. He pounds the ball in the ground, which doesn't allow his average power to play, but does allow his plus speed (3.80, 4.01 to 1st... as a righty) to play. Defensively, hear he has an above average arm, but does put his plus speed to use with solid routes and a good 1st step. Still has a ton of questions to answer, but this is a guy to watch and he could be a future Vladimir Guerrero if absolutely everything falls right. I am not that optimistic.

Pitchers

Del Rosario, Enerio: Age 25, Cincinnati Reds Organization

Del Rosario was a recent addition to the Reds 40 man roster so they wouldn't lose him in the Rule V draft and that was a good decision. Saw him 3 separate times and he operates with a fastball at 86-88 and a slider at 80-82. He comes from a 3/4 arm angle and his fastball has good run in on righties and good sink that is very difficult for hitters to elevate, making him an ideal candidate to be a situational reliever. His slider is serviceable enough, but isn't an out pitch and he won't put up big strikeout numbers. A mini version of Darren O'Day, he should be a solid reliever for the Reds and wouldn't be surprised if he broke camp with the team in April.

Pena, Tony: Age 28, San Francisco Giants Organization

After playing SS failed due to his inability to hit, he was converted to pitching by the Royals and posted some intriguing numbers. He signed as a minor league free agent with the Giants for this upcoming season. He was a guy I was excited to see, but he didn't pitch like your typical convert. He doesn't feature a big fastball, instead sitting at 87-89 with a sinker that can elicit groundballs and he threw a raw change at 79. His mechanics (even working only from the stretch) still need a lot of work and he is a lot of arm in his delivery. You hope he may add velocity focusing on pitching everyday, but he profiles as no better then a solid middle reliever, and one that will require more work then a normal pitcher.

Oneli Perez: Age 26, St. Louis Cardinals Organization

Perez intrigued me by putting up some pretty solid numbers for AAA Memphis this year, but he is what he is. He is not an overwhelming pitcher and is a guy who should be able to get AAA hitters out fairly consistently, but just lacks the stuff to do it in the majors. He was 89-91 with his fastball, a sinker variety and was 77-80 with his slider, which is average but can't be an out pitch. You will see him in the major leagues a couple more times.

Juan Perez: Age 31, Los Angeles Dodgers Organization (LHP)

The oldest guy I looked at, he put up some nice strikeout numbers at AAA Gwinnett and signed as a minor league free agent with the Dodgers. I only saw him once (and he only threw 1 fastball at 86), but he looks like he is just AAA depth. He also threw a curve at 75-77 that was a sweeping pitch with above average tilt and was a true swing and miss offering, but he doesn't have the FB velocity to not have major league hitters sit on it.

Rosa, Carlos: Age 24, Kansas City Royals Organization

Rosa is a guy I have always liked and wanted to see how he looked as a starter. I am still holding out hope, but his start I watched wasn't good (only lasted 2 innings) and struggled to throw strikes with his fastball out of the windup. For the outing, he showed a fastball at 90-94 with good movement and inconsistent command, a slider at 86-88 that was tight but didn't have great movement, a below average curve at 78 and a change at 84-86 that was usable. Is a major league arm, but he probably does profile better as a reliever, though if I am KC I make him prove it by starting him a few times this coming season.

Severino, Atahualpa: Age 25, Washington Nationals Organization (LHP)

His first name is quite the treat. Anyways, Severino is a 5-9, 170 pound lefty reliever who doesn't have much growth left. The first 2 games I saw, he was 88-90 with his fastball and 77-80 with his slider. His last outing I saw, he sat at 90-92 (had read reports he touched 94) and showed a slider at 79. His slider is more of a slurve, but it should be enough to get out lefties and righties if his velocity stays at 90-92. Solid reliever prospect who probably profiles as a 2nd lefty in a pen and one better suited to face lefties (in the DWL, he was used as a LOOGY, facing only the occasional right handed bat)

Valdez, Jose: Age 26, Houston Astros Organization

Valdez signed as a minor league free agent after coming out of the Yankees organization (and putting up some solid strikeout numbers). The 6-4 Valdez needs to be locked in a weight room for a while, as he is just 185 pounds and is built like a stringbean. However, the one thing that is known about him is he has a big arm, sitting at 93-94 with his fastball and touching 95 and showing a slurve that I classified as a curveball at 79-83. His fastball is major league ready and is a worthwhile risk by the Astros to see if they can tighten his off-speed pitch into something major league ready.

Venezuelan Winter League Breakdown

Had 2 games available to break down on ESPN 360 (with a ton of Dominican Winter League games, so there will be a post on that in some time) and so here is a brief summary (keep in mind, I still only watch guys that pique my interest):

C Wilson Ramos (Minnesota Twins): Age 22
Ramos is a very highly touted catching prospect and prospect overall. Ranked the # 2 prospect by Baseball America entering the upcoming season, he likely slots somewhere in the middle of the Top 50. Ramos has "light tower" power, especially to his pull side and his power output in the VWL was no fluke. He is very smooth defensively with an above average arm that he is fairly accurate with. No doubt in my mind he can hit 25-30 homers and be an above average defender.

However, he is a guy that sabermetrics may not like. This is a guy who employs the Vladimir Guerrero approach. He put up solid numbers in a half season at AA, but it will be interesting to see what happens when more advanced pitchers face him. In the 1 game I saw, it could be a slider off the plate, a fastball in or a curveball, he was swinging at it on the 1st pitch. He has better tools then another free swinger with a good pedigree coming up (Francouer), but I still have those same questions.

With that said, I still view him as a sometime all star and an everyday catcher.

Ezequiel Carrera (Seattle Mariners)
The 22 year old had a great year at AA (.337-.441-.416) and showed his ability. It has surprised me that he hasn't yet been ranked in the top 30 for either the Mets or Mariners. He is a true speedster who I had a 65 or a 70 runner on the 20-80 scale. He is a slap hitter who will never hit for much power, but can work the count and is a good contact hitter who shouldn't strike out much. Defensively, he uses his speed well and has a slightly above average 1st step with a slightly below average arm, so he is limited to CF or LF.

He should start next season in AAA and be primed for a starting job the year after, though Franklin Gutierrez is a big time blocker in CF, so he may need to settle at being a 4th OF.

Pitchers (ESPN360 had a radar gun for those telecasts, so awesome)

Eduardo Sanchez (St. Louis Cardinals)
This guy was unlisted on the Baseball America St. Louis page (not even a depth guy), but let me give you this guys numbers this past season:

Hi A Palm Beach: 19 G, 25 IP, 12 H, 5 BB, 26 K
AA Spingfield: 41 G, 50 IP, 32 H, 20 BB, 56 K

Did I mention that he pitched last season at the age of 20? The 21 year old will likely start next year at AAA and has a great chance to be in the St. Louis bullpen by June. He showed a fastball at 90-92 (though I have read reports where it can sit in the mid 90's) and a devastating, lights out 76-78 slider that even if the FB is only 90-92, he can be a solid set-up guy. He also showed a change at 81, but that is a distant 3rd pitch.

Needless to say, he is now Baseball America's 6th best prospect in the St. Louis organization entering this season.

Yohan Pino (Cleveland Indians) Age 26
One of many that will be competing for a starting job with Cleveland, Pino operates with a fastball at 86-89, a slider at 78-82, a curve at 71-74 and a change at 73-75. I believe this is right, but Pino is the unabashed champion at throwing back-up sliders and he was a little difficult to distinguish between sliders and changeups. His fastball has some good late movement and he has good command of the pitch, but is still a below average offering due to velocity. His 2 breaking pitches are both average and his change is okay. He is a guy with a very small margin of error and I don't see him having prolonged success in the majors.

Fernando Hernandez (Oakland Athletics)
A minor league free agent signing, the 25 year old Hernandez operates with a fastball at 89-90, a slider at 79-81 and a curveball at 71-76. Your classic 3-pitch reliever, he is good AAA depth who will likely make 1 or 2 more major league cameos before his days are done.

Joseph Ortiz (Texas Rangers)
The now 19 year old Ortiz is a 5-7, 175 pound lefty. He struggled in a brief introduction to full season ball and will likely get another chance this coming season. He operates with a fastball at 87-90, a sweeping curve at 71 and a change at 79. To me, he profiles as nothing better then a 2nd lefty in a pen and he could have a chance to be a solid LOOGY.

Clevelan Santeliz (Chicago White Sox)
Ahhhh, the whole stats lying thing. The 23 year old posted an ERA of .96 at AA Birmingham in 40 appearances, but had a WHIP of 1.38. He has good stuff, but he doesn't have .96 ERA stuff. He operates with fastball that sat at 92-93 and touched 94 and 95 once and a slider at 83-87. I see him as a solid middle reliever, as he does have some command questions.

Rafael Cova (San Francisco Giants)
An interesting story, this is what he did in minor league ball last year (he was hurt):

AZL Giants: 4 G, 4 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K
Hi A San Jose: 12 G, 11 IP, 5 H, 12 BB, 19 K

Obviously, he has strike out stuff. The question for me on him was his age, as he is 27. He apparently signed as a minor league free agent after not pitching since 2006 (used to be a Mets prospect). This may turn out to be one heck of a find if he can stay healthy. Cova featured a fastball at 93-94 and a downer 1-7 slider at 82-85 that could be a strikeout pitch. One to watch, as he has to be put on the fast track due to his age.

Danny Rondon (Minnesota Twins)
The 22 year old is a non prospect to me. The reliever operated with a fastball at 86-88 that touched 89 and 90 and showed a slider at 82 that is still a ways away.

Carlos Alvarez (Florida Marlins)
One of the older guys I looked at, the 25 year old disappointed me. He has a delivery and arm angle that would make him tough on lefties and showed a fastball at 86 and a sweeping curve at 74-75. Just 5-9, he is likely destined to be AAA filler and get a few looks in the majors.

The Minors: April

I have stuck to a list of around 300 some players breaking down the AAA video. Most of the AAA video is fairly good with a CF camera allowing you to see pitch movement and how a hitters aligns. Any velocities I find on here are thanks to Durham, who hooked up their stadium gun to their "telecast" and that is useful.

Stumbled upon some video from Lexington (Low A, South Atlantic League) which has a pretty good rotation of Jordan Lyles, Ross Seaton, Robert Bono, Kyle Greenwalt and Brad D(more on him below). This would have been amazing, except for the fact they use more camera angles then the Yankees use money. They very rarely use their CF angle, instead opting for an angle behind home plate (about useless) or zooming in on the pitcher/hitter. They are about the most frustrating video to watch and most of the time I stop, but I have found some things that are useful.

This will likely be the only time I post on these guys (though I won't stop watching). My plan was to now jump to June games and break those down (and hopefully get some All-Star Games) and then jump again to September to see how they react. The hope is to find these guys when they are locked in and struggling.

I determined these players that I followed (keep in mind some of them haven't yet debuted in AAA) by name value (guys like Stephen Head and Jon Jay have always stuck out to me), stats (guys like Brian Dopirak and Kila Ka'aihue have put up solid numbers) and personal preference (Some guys I want to see that casual fans have no interest in, such as Drew O'Neil, a high school teammate or Josh Kroeger, who has always intrigued me for some reason)

If you have questions on anyone not mentioned, feel free to make a comment. More then likely I have watched them.

If you disagree, please voice your concerns, as this way I can look for that in June and September.

Here is the 1-month breakdown on what I have seen:

Atlanta Braves:
None. They don't have too many guys on my list to evaluate. The Rome-Lexington series has also been impossible to evaluate through video. Saw brief glimpses of Tim Gustafson, who profiles as a reliever to me. Of guys not on their team during the season, I think they took good risks on Brent Clevlen (formerly a Tiger) and Eric Duncan (formerly a Yankee) as minor league free agents. Clevlen didn't show the defensive ability that Baseball America says he has (the hardest thing to evaluate on video is an IF or OF's first step), but he does show the power and shows spurts where he is squaring pitches up consistently. Duncan, the former 1st round pick of the Yankees, still shows good tools and I think he profiles solidly as a bench bat in the NL, as he will not hit for the power needed for a corner infielder. He isn't yet ready and needs more refinement, but I think the change in scenery will do him well and after watching him hit and seeing his swing mechanics, surprised he hasn't hit for average. Todd Redmond pitched against Durham and showed a pitcher whose mechanics deemed a move to the bullpen but whose stuff deemed staying in the rotation. He worked at 86-89 with a 2-seamer and touched 90, 91 and 92 once. His curve was a power curve that really throws you off because it was 76-82. His change was 77-81 and his split was 76-77 with the split serving as his out pitch to lefties. Mariano Gomez compiled good numbers at AAA Gwinnett, but didn't get a call-up and doesn't really have a role as a lefty who works with a fastball at 88-91 and no real breaking pitch to speak of.

Baltimore Orioles:
Norfolk has a couple hitters that I took the time to look at. Justin Turner showed well in a brief September call-up, but to me profiles as a solid utility infielder who can play SS. I don't know how we will continue to hit for average from his current set-up, as it is fairly active. Also feel like he should hit for a little more power then he has shone. And for anyone holding out hope that Mike Costanzo will come through and make his acquisition a success, good luck. Long swing with no real pitch recognition ability and can't hit a breaking pitch from a lefty.

Chicago Cubs:
Have just begun breaking down Chris Robinson.

Chicago White Sox:
Kannapolis played Lexington for a 4-game set and they gave me enough to know that I don't like Jorge Castillo or Jordan Cheatham and think they max out in AA or lower. Tyler Kuhn is an intriguing bat who looks like he should provide some gap power and is a guy I can't break down through video, as his ? mark is position and where he profiles. Good looking line drive oriented stick. The big names on Kannapolis (according to Baseball America) are Eduardo Escobar and Jon Gilmore. Failed to get a decent feel for either one of these guys in this time, but Escobar seems like he is far away while Gilmore should begin his ascent to Chicago and has the potential to be a middle of the order bat. On the pitching side, saw a few guys that may have a future in a big league bullpen in Nate Jones, who looked like he threw a fairly hard fastball but nothing else, and Drew O'Neil, who profiles as a sidearming ROOGY to force groundballs, though he needs to refine his command. 22 year old Stephen Sauer also looked good out of the pen and the White Sox are now attempting to develop him as a starter apparently. I believe the scouting report when he was drafted that he was working at 88-91 and showed a 12-6 downer curve that was a swing and miss offering and a cutter/slider hybrid that was more of a show pitch. His change looked fairly refined as well.

Cincinnati Reds:
Chris Valaika was the Reds 4th best prospect entering the season. That was WAY too high and I fail to understand what Baseball America saw. Valaika is a useful guy, but he is way too mechanical to stay at SS with a below average arm and needs to be a 2Bmen or a utility guy. His bat looks okay, though he struggled to put up numbers. Wilkin Castillo's best hope is to be a super utility guy, as he showed he can catch and play some OF (and could probably learn 2B), but he isn't very good at any of the positions and his bat isn't good enough that you have to find a spot for him. Have tried to watch Sam LeCure twice, but twice the video hasn't worked which has been extremely disappointing.

Cleveland Indians:
The Indians had a trio of guys I wanted to look at. The top name on my list was Jordan Brown who had a strong year statistically in AAA, but never got a look when the Indians were trying out everyone and their mother. After watching him, you can understand why. I believe he is a perfect comparable with Oscar Salazar. He will hit in the majors, but not enough to hold down a corner outfield or 1B position. More of an average hitter, I see him as a good fit on a NL bench where he can pinch hit and other things (just like Salazar). Wes Hodges may be ready for a big league cameo next year, though he will be a little rough in regards to defense due to his throwing mechanics and his swing implies he should hit for more power then he has shown thus far. Stephen Head is a name that has shone out to me since his days at Ole Miss and it appears both myself and the Indians have misevaluated him and he is a non-prospect. Not an Indian during the April season, Jason Donald profiles to me as a utility infielder. Unlike Baseball America, I think he could stay at SS if he had to, but isn't going to beat out Asdrubal. Luis Valbuena is also a better option to Donald in my opinion. Donald shows like he should be able to hit for average and power and I think this season was a fluke and he should have a strong bounceback campaign at AAA next season. Mitch Talbot (Rays) should be able to fill one of the holes in the Indians rotation. Comes from an over the top with quiet, repeatable mechanics and showed a 2-seamer with some run in on righties and some sink (though the movement can be inconsistent), a change with good fade from lefties and some sink that he can throw for strikes, a tight 2-7 slider with good late cut action and a 12-6 downer curve with good tilt and slightly above average depth. Primarily FB-CB and can throw all his off-speed stuff for strikes and profiles as a back of the rotation starter.

Detroit Tigers:
This is a team that will need to rely on some of their younger guys to step up and 2 have made a favorable impression on me. Wilkin Ramirez is extremely questionable defensively and may get lost in LF in Comerica. However, this guy will hit if given the chance (for both power and average) and will be an asset in the batting order, though he can get pull heavy at times and will go through spurts where he swings at everything. The other was the man they had acquired from the Yankees, Austin Jackson. He showed me enough to think he will be able to stick in CF (though some of his routes will be interesting) and I think his stick can play in the majors this coming season, though not necessarily that well. He still shows a problem recognizing (and laying off) the slider down and away and can get overaggressive and pull heavy at times. I think his power bat will return however (though Comerica will make it look it hasn't). Will Rhymes and Brent Dlugach profile as utility guys at best and neither will hit much in the big leagues.

Florida Marlins:
The Marlins have a toolsy OF who is trying to get a chance to prove himself at the big league level. No, I am not referring to Maybin, but rather Jai Miller. Miller is a true 5 tool guy, but he is still very raw. He flashes ability in all 5 phases of the game and then will turn around the next game and strike out 4 times and look bad everytime at the plate. He needs to refine his approach (very pull oriented) and learn to go the other way and develop a better plan at the plate. Gaby Sanchez to me is a placeholder for Logan Morrison and doesn't profile to do much, as he doesn't show much power and seems to swap between being over aggressive and too patient. The pitcher they got from the Astros, Robert Bono, is an athletic guy who looked like he was operating with a high 80's to low 90's sinker with some raw offspeed offerings and solid command. I must have seen one of the few quality outings as a starter from Brett Sinkbeil. He looked like he threw gas with a heavy fastball that forced a lot of groundouts. He was locating that pitch as well as his above average 2-7 slider, which he buried or threw for a strike in any count. His change was more of a show pitch and really hasn't developed. Likely a future set-up guy, if his command is like what I saw (plan on watching some bullpen appearances to see how he looks). Ryan Tucker showed about the cleanest mechanics I think I have seen and he went down to an arm injury. He showed a hard fastball, though it was fairly straight, a tight 2-7 slider that could be sweeping but was inconsistent break-wise and a change that actually is close to being usable. Was lobbying to be a reliever to try and make the team out of the spring and got an arm injury out of getting to start in AAA. Interesting to see how he bounces back. Chris Schroder (A's) could be a usable cog for them out of the pen in the way Brendan Donnelly was last year and showed a pretty straight 4-seamer, a cutter, a sweeping 3-8 slider and a change. James Houser (Rays) is a worthwhile gamble, but he showed a fastball at 82-86 that touched 87, 88 and 89, a good 12-6 curve at 70-73, a solid change at 74-78 and a Jamie Moyer like cutter at 77-80.

Houston Astros:
Not yet seen their AAA team, but they have another Michael Bourn coming through the system in Jay Austin, an 18 year old playing full season ball. I graded him out as a 55, which is an everyday starter who will make a few all-star teams. He is extremely fast (though he has a little too much loft to his swing at this stage for my taste) and he uses it well on the bases, where he is aggressive and in the field where he is a plus defender. While his stats weren't overwhelming, any time an 18 year old holds his own in a fullseason league is news. Obviously needs to improve his pitch recognition ability and further refining his skills, but he has a bright future. Federico Hernandez is a guy who is much more valuable then his stats indicate. He shows tremendous feel for the game as a young catcher and does a tremendous job controlling a game and working with a staff. However, his bat is very raw. He is a switch hitter, so it bodes well for his chances to be a solid back-up catcher in 3 or 4 years. Brandon Barnes made it to AA after starting the season at Lexington and profiles as a solid average 4th OF. Ebert Rosario has all the tools in the world and has a ton of projection left, but at 22 it is getting tougher for the Astros to wait to turn his tools into production. The Astros have some pitching coming, though it is a couple of years away at best. Jordan Lyles is the real deal and profiles as a # 2 starter in the majors. He looked like he was throwing 90-96, though it did straighten out on him on occasion and didn't have great movement to begin with. His change needed further refinement, as he appeared to slow his arm down, but his curve is a 12-6 pitch with above average depth and good tilt that he just needs to learn how to bury, as he can already throw it for strikes to set up his high fastball. Very clean delivery and generates easy velocity. Had Ross Seaton twice thus far and video hasn't cooperated either time, but he shows a nice and easy delivery (though he can get a little bouncy) with a good moving fastball from what I have gathered. The other pitcher that really excites me is 19 year old Brad Dydalewicz. He reminds me of Marc Rzepczynski (and not just because spelling both their names wins you a medal). He is a quality athlete who comes from a 3/4 release, though his delivery has some effort to it being a rock and fire delivery with a fast tempo. His fastball is a true sinker from a lefty and had good sink, though he had inconsistent command of this pitch. His curve was a power, sweeping 11-5 pitch that served as his out pitch and he flashes the ability to throw it for strikes or bury it, but wasn't consistent. His slider and change are behind his other 2 pitches, but flash the ability to be major league average. Is an emotional guy on the mound who has a great pickoff/balk move. Ceiling of a middle of the rotation starter, though apparently the Astros wanted to develop him as a Billy Wagner type (nowhere near that velocity) and just started him to get him innings. Bet that has changed. The scary part for NL Central teams is that Lyles is 18 and Dydalewicz and Seaton are just 19 (but they are young pitchers, so anything can happen)

Kansas City Royals:
None. Hoping to get an Omaha game to see Ka'aihue and end a debate...

Los Angeles Dodgers:
Albuquerque is the 1 AAA angle where nothing can be done to evaluate.

Los Angeles Angels:
None.

New York Mets:
Apparently the Mets rushed another young infielder who goes by the name Jose Coronado. He is intriguing with a lot of tools, but he is likely to be ruined. Shows good plate discipline as a switch hitting shortstop, but his defense is very inconsistent. A guy who could use a full season at High A or AA to refine some things before getting a look in AAA. Before going down with a torn labrum, Dillon Gee showed a good package at being a back of the rotation starter. Featuring a high 3/4 release from a clean delivery and the command to throw any pitch in any count, he was very impressive in a start against Pawtucket. He worked quickly with a fastball with some run in on righties and some sink, though he could nibble too much with it and that flashed above average run sink and good run in on righties and a change with good fade from lefties and some sink he would throw in any count (and was his preferred pitch in 3-2 counts) and loved throwing it in hitter's counts. He operates with those 2 pitches the 1st time through the order primarily and then mixes in a 2-7 slider with average bite that he could start off the plate to be a swing and miss pitch or throw a flatter one for strikes and a 12-6 downer curve with average depth and okay tilt that he would throw for strikes or bury. Interesting to see how he comes back. Eddie Kunz features a devastating sinker, but little command of the pitch and 2 raw off-speed offerings (a straight change with little cation and tight 2-7 slider that he can only throw as an out pitch and that he liked to throw on the hands of lefties). Is rawer then you would expect of a former 1st round pick in AAA.

New York Yankees:
Of the guys still there, Kevin Russo profiles as a useful utility guy with good speed and J. Brent Cox still resembles the guy he replaced at Texas (Huston Street) with an average fastball that he could command and an above average 2-7 slider that he could bury for strikeouts or throw it for a quality strike and he profiles as a solid middle reliever, though the number of sliders he throws has taken a toll on his arm, already having Tommy John Surgery once.

Oakland Athletics:
On this A's team, the guy I had the toughest time reading resides. Before I get to him, let me quickly touch on 2 other guys: Jeff Baisley has great tools and I love his set-up at the plate, but his tools just haven't translated into production and is entering a make or break season. Anthony Recker is a guy I am a big fan of. I think he profiles as a starting catcher if all goes well. However, I want to see if he has made an adjustment, as he was triggering too late and thus was either behind on fastballs or driving everything the other way. Good looking stick with a little rawness still to knock out of him defensively. Sean Doolittle is a guy I keep trying to think about what he could be. He is a rhythm hitter with swing mechanics very similar to that of Chone Figgins. He has a plus arm and is an average runner. I keep going back and forth between a 4th OF and a starting RF, but I have decided on a starting RF with a good average and 10-15 homers, similar to Ryan Sweeney with lesser defense. Marcus McBeth (Red Sox) is a worthwhile signing as a possible relief option, as he shows a diabolical plus changeup, but a slider that is more of the get me over variety and a sinker with some movement. Would like him better on a NL team in a big park (like San Diego). Jared Lansford was one of the first high school pitchers the A's took (or atleast him and Craig Italiano got the pub like they were), but he barely profiles as a major league reliever, featuring a sinker and a slider (with neither pitch major league ready). James Simmons was renowned as amongst the most major league ready of the pitchers available when he was drafted in the 1st round and still looks that way. Always going to be a back of the rotation guy, he pounds the zone (primarily gloveside corner) with a fastball that has a little movement, a 2-7 slider he is more comfortable throwing for strikes then burying, a change with good late action, though it can just float to the plate at time and a 12-6 curve with good downward action and above average depth. Fast worker who commands all his pitches well, but lacks a true out pitch. Chad Reineke is an organizational soldier who's only fit in a big league bullpen would be as the blowout guy. Scott Patterson (Padres) profiles as a solid middle reliever who features a straight 4-seamer and a hammer 12-6 curve that flashes above average tilt to go with an average changeup. Has some definite injury questions, as he has quite the bizarre delivery.

Philadelphia Phillies:
None that are currently on the team.

Pittsburgh Pirates:
There is a lot of talk about a guy being available who teams should jump on and his name is Neil Walker. He is blocked by Andy LaRoche now and Pedro Alvarez in the future, but he is talented enough to be at least a platoon player next season. He is an above average defender who can make every play necessary and then some at third base. He shows flashes with the stick and the one bugaboo on him (plate discipline) was non existent early in the season, as he worked counts and consistently got himself into hitter's counts. Shelby Ford had a lost season and still profiles as a utility man, though one who needs to really adjust his approach at the plate. Erik Kratz profiles as your ideal back-up catcher, as he is a good catch and throw guy and shows enough offensively where he won't hurt you in the lineup and can offer some production. I prefer Kratz to Jaramillo and Diaz. Yoslan Herrera got a lot of hype when he signed out of Cuba, but didn't look to break 84 with his fastball, making his solid curve and splitter very hittable and cement the fact he likely won't pitch in the majors again. Justin Thomas (Mariners) was signed to try and win one of the lefty bullpen spots and he has an outside chance at it, featuring an above average slider he can spot (though throws too much) and an average fastball. In West Virginia, the Pirates had a trio of youngsters, led by AFL alum Chase D'Arnaud. He played SS here and he may be good enough to stick there. He is either a 2B or SS down the road and is still a talented prospect. Robbie Grossman was one of their bonus babies, but this 18 year old is further away then Jay Austin. He is a plus runner, but is raw in every other area. He has a below average arm that will limit him to LF or CF and he doesn't hit for the power to carry a corner. Even further away is 20 year old Quincy Latimore, who is another speedster with similar question marks but has a worse approach at the plate and resembles an athlete trying to play baseball as opposed to a baseball player who is an athlete.

San Diego Padres:
Chad Huffman profiles as a 4th OF and one who is not a good fit for PETCO, as he is your classic old ballplayer. Can get overaggressive at the plate at times and struggle to recognize breaking pitches. Have my concerns that his power #'s are PCL inflated, but shows above average bat speed and is a slightly above average runner. Mike Ekstrom got some big league time last season and still profiles to me as a solid middle reliever. Gabe DeHoyos is a butterball shaped reliever who looked to be throwing hard and had an absolute hammer curve that he relies on to be his out pitch, but struggles to throw it for strikes. Cesar Ramos still profiles to me better as a back of the rotation starter (especially in PETCO) then as a reliever.

Seattle Mariners:
Mike Carp was in line to be the Mariners 1Bmen until the Casey Kotchman acquisition. Likely a good thing, as I don't feel Carp is quite ready yet. He isn't a great defender, which makes you wonder if he may be trade bait with the new vision in Seattle. He isn't a big power bat, but is more of a guy that will hit for a high average. He is at his best when he is using all fields and just lining the ball gap to gap, though he will get to times where he gets pull oriented. Gaby Hernandez came from a high 3/4 release in a clean delivery and features a 2-seamer with some movement, a straight 4-seamer (tends to miss up with both fastballs, bad idea), a slurvy 1-7 curve with below average depth but good tilt that he can bury or throw for a FAT strike that should get hammered, a change that looks like a fastball out of his hand and some fade and then a cutter with good cut and some sink that he relied on too much. The 2nd and 3rd times through the order, he used the cutter as his primary fastball and also tended to miss up with it. Jesus Delgado is still a minor league free agent as of this writing, but I would take a chance on him if he was healthy. He came from a max effort delivery with a cocking action and a violent head jerk, but looked like he was throwing gas (though it was also dead straight) to go with a power 12-7 curve that is a true out pitch that he could also throw for strikes. His change is also a quality offering that he needs to throw more. His command is iffy and his body type isn't great, but he is worth a minor league contract.

St. Louis Cardinals:
Allen Craig is one of those guys stats guys look at and wonder why he isn't up in the majors. After watching him hit, he is ready from an offensive standpoint. His problem is that he has a quirky release at 3B when, coupled with a slightly below average arm, means he can't play 3B full time and isn't a much better fit in LF. May just be a professional hitter type. A couple guys I do like are Jon Jay and Bryan Anderson. Anderson seems to have fallen under the radar and behind guys like Posey and Jason Castro when discussing catchers, but he needs to be in the same discussion. Similarily built like Posey, he is an athletic catcher who will need to answer questions on whether he can catch for a full season. His bat is close to ready, though it can be slow at times. More of a gap to gap hitter who will hit the occasional home run to RF. Jay profiles similarily and is a guy (like Head) that I have liked since he was in college, which for him was Miami. His set-up and trigger is similar to that of Cliff Floyd with the hand movement, but he is more of a gap to gap hitter with good speed who can spot play in CF for you. Matt Scherer featured an average fastball and a good splitter, but doesn't profile as anything more then organizational depth.

Tampa Bay Rays:
Maybe it's because I used to work for one of their minor league affiliates, but more guys piqued my early interest here. Reid Brignac has the tools to eventually be a starting SS, though he will need to refine his offensive approach and make better in game adjustments. He profiles with 15-20 homer power and above average defense, but will struggle to hit for average until he makes those adjustments. John Jaso still profiles to me as a solid utility player who can catch on occasion. He has improved himself defensively and is a useful hitter who will draw walks and hit some doubles, but can't catch full time. Justin Ruggiano is a 5-tool guy who has never met a breaking pitch he couldn't recognize, but he shows himself well enough you keep hoping that 1 year the light will turn on. The Rays also had 2 guys who won't make much of an impact in the majors that I scouted: Elliot Johnson, who profiles as a guy who can play everywhere and hit like he is worrying about where he is going to play next and Chris Nowak, who hit a 400 foot bomb when I saw him live at Montgomery, but doesn't have the bat to carry a corner infield position as a starter and is another guy who has some struggles recognizing breaking pitches and/or catching up to a good fastball. Bowling Green had some guys I really wanted to watch, but the camera angles were terrible. This includes Matt Moore (mechanics looked interesting), Tim Beckham (line drive swing, but really doesn't have the body type of a SS) and Jake Jefferies (who has a stat line sabermetrics love but is rough defensively)

Texas Rangers:
Max Ramirez has been a guy I have always loved and this was the 1st year he really didn't hit. I still believe in his bat and he is refining his ability catching, but I think he may have to be a 1Bmen. Greg Golson is all tools with zero refinement or ability to hit an offspeed pitch. Joaquin Arias and German Duran are utility infielders at best, with myself preferring Duran because he is faster with a lower maintenance swing.

Toronto Blue Jays:
Jarrett Hoffpauir (Cardinals) was claimed off waivers in November, but profiles as nothing more then a utility infielder and one who will not provide much with the bat at that.

My Player Development Philosophy

As I get closer to possibly getting a job with a major league team, figured I would share my personal philosophy on what I would do if I were ever in that position (and this is definitely open to transitioning as I gain more knowledge of the process with a job in the industry). Plus, nothing like putting this together to help you think.

I. Affiliate Locations

Ideally, the two closest locations to the major league teams are the Low A and the AAA positions. My personal preference (obviously the MLB team matters in this) is to not have my high A team in the Cal League or my AAA team in the Pacific Coast League due to the fact that these are overwhelming hitters environments and I don't want to risk losing my pitcher's confidence.

The reasoning behind my Low A team being one of the closest to the MLB team is that these are many guys first taste of full season ball. With that being said, that would be the place I travel to most often to try and get a better gauge myself of whether these players are slumping or need to be sent down to short season ball to get a quick refresher/confidence boost. The AAA team needs to be close so the players can arrive to play for the big league team as soon as possible.

II. Hiring Coaches

Believe that your coaches in High A and lower need to have a background as a teacher. Whether this is as a high school or college coach or previous experience coaching youngsters at this age, I feel that people with these types of backgrounds are better able to connect with these younger kids. These coaches need to understand how to teach fundamentals and teach them how to handle themselves throughout a season. These are also the coaches that I would allow to make wholesale changes if they see fit (after being approved by myself and staff of course) and dramatically rework a pitcher's windup for example.

Believe that AA and AAA coaches must have major league player experience. I feel that once a prospect reaches this stage of his career, he has a chance at the majors. I thus want our coaches to be able to speak from experience about what you will see at the major league level and the little tweaks that need to take place for that player to be successful.

This criteria is mainly for my initial hirings of the position. I believe promotion from within is very important, as we will have a very detailed hitting and pitching system (installed by the major league hitting and pitching coach with input from our staff) and will teach everything the same way. This prevents people from hearing from 100 different people (at least from within the organization) and should speed the learning process for these players.

All coaches will also be responsible for scouting the opposing team and sending reports back to us on guys they liked (not in depth reports, just reports saying we should check out this guy and then we can have a scout follow him)

III. Promotion/Demotion

I believe a player determines how fast he moves through the organization (at least until the AAA-Major jump). With that being said, players will get promoted in season when they put up numbers deserving a promotion or are recommended to get promoted by the current coaching staff (or both). Ideally, a prospect gets 1 midseason promotion. I believe this is hugely important due to the fact that if a prospect is on a hot streak and keeps switching leagues, no scouting reports catch up to him. I want my prospects to deal with slumps and other things so that we as an organization can see how they adjust. Anyone can hit well for a full season through 3 levels if they never face the same team or pitcher twice. Obviously, if we are in contention, we will weigh the pros and cons before accelerating someone's timetable to help us.

In regards to demotions, they will come primarily from input on the coaching staff. The number 1 thing we want to do is to ensure our players do not lose confidence. In a game of failure, confidence is what separates the 0-10 streak from devolving into a 1-30 streak. The staff will be responsible for keeping in tuned with how a player is feeling mentally and to make sure we don't lose him. Obviously, getting demoted hurts a player's confidence, so that is another option that must be weighed. But, getting demoted and then hitting .310 or pitching to a tune of a 2.50 ERA can do wonders for confidence.

Repeating a level is something that is never desired, but I feel players must show they have performed well at a level and are ready to advance to the next rung on the ladder. The players that repeat a level will also be subjected to getting a midseason promotion a little quicker then other players who are experiencing their 1st season at a level (except AA and AAA). It is also important to keep a players confidence by not having them spend 2 full seasons at a level unless they are under 20 at Low A.

IV. Evaluation

We will evaluate our prospects through mostly our scouting staff breaking down video and seeing if the areas we are looking for improvement are actually being improved. We will send each staff a list of what areas we want each player to improve and it is their responsibility to handle that. Some guys may be as easy as changing their hand placement offensively or working with them on handling the double play or tightening a breaking pitch. Some guys may be as difficult as overhauling a hitter's set-up or a pitcher's windup. We will then use video as a means of assessing this and hope to see a difference from the April video to the September video.

As it relates to what degree of coaching input/scouting and stats go into it, this is how I forsee it:

Short Season: 95 % scout, 5 % stat
Low A: 95 % scout, 5 % stat
High A: 95 % scout, 5 % stat
AA: 70 % scout, 30 % stat
AAA: 90 % stat, 10 % scout

My personal belief (unless I am proven something else) is that stats are too unpredictable at the lower levels. You are dealing with young players working on improving aspects of their game and still growing. Hitting 30 homers at Low A doesn't mean your a star and hitting 5 at Low A doesn't mean your not going to be a power hitter. I am a process rather then an end result guy as it relates to these players. I don't care if you hit .215 as long as you have executed the changes we have seen and thus now have a full off season to cement those changes and hopefully take a big step forward. Once you get to AA, everyone is talented. Thus, stats can begin to paint a clearer picture, as this is the 1st level where every hitter should be able to hit a breaking ball and every pitcher can throw one for a strike. Once you get to AAA, that is mainly performance based to be similar to the majors. You must perform to stay at AAA.

That is a very rough draft of my ideas in regards to a player development philosophy and I look forward to growing these items as I gain experience.

Happy New Year

Happy new year to all.

In my efforts to attempt to find video, I have tracked down MILB.TV, which I have decided to sign up for. This gives me access to a ton of minor league game videos (appears to be all AAA, but am hoping as I get further into it that there will be some other levels including all star games.

I have already compiled a list of AAA players "of interest" to me and that I want to breakdown (136 hitters, 178 pitchers) and I hope to be able to watch all their games and report back.

Check back towards the end of the month, when I hope to be enough of the way down compiling my reports that I can provide some sort of writeup. My main goal is to give writeups based on teams, but I am going to try and watch every game they have for each day.