Thursday, May 28, 2009

Relief Pitcher Check (May 28th)

For those of you unaware, I am author of a long study evaluating the regression of relief pitchers (and for those of you that do know, it is growing, I am currenly adding specific pitch type (which should be prepped for comparisons in the next couple of days) and a completely redone disabled list database). Anyways, I identified my top 5 candidates for regression according to the evals and here they are with a quick stat check and my reasoning:

  • Luis Ayala: Posted 2nd highest Days of Rest score in his career in 2008 and has regressed each time he has posted a qualifying Days of Rest score.

Previous Check: 8 Appearances, 1-1, 6.48 ERA. 13 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 8.1 IP

Current: 18 Appearances, 1-1, 4.79. 20.2 IP, 28 H, 7 BB, 13 K

2008: 81 Appearances, 2-10, 5.71. 75.2 IP, 86 H, 24 BB, 50 K

  • Dennys Reyes: The last time he was worked as hard as he was in 2008 was 2006. In 2007, he regressed greatly.

Previous Check: 9 Appearances, 0-1, 3.18 ERA. 3 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 5.2 IP

Current: 23 Appearances, 0-1, 3.21. 14 IP, 11 H, 5 BB, 15 K

2008: 75 Appearances, 3-0, 2.33. 46.1 IP, 40 H, 15 BB, 39 K

  • Brad Lidge: Qualified under 4 criteria in 2008, as well as the 3-season Total IP for 2006-2008. The last time he qualified under these criteria (2006), he suffered regression the next year.

Previous Check: 8 Appearances, 0-1, 8.22 ERA. 10 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 7.2 IP

Current: 22 Appearances, 0-2, 8.85. 20.1 IP, 29 H, 13 BB, 22 K

2008: 72 Appearances, 2-0, 1.95. 69.1 IP, 50 H, 35 BB, 92 K

  • Pedro Feliciano: Qualified under the Days or Rest criteria in 2007 and showed regression in 2008. For 2008, he qualified under 4 criteria, including an even greater number in the Days of Rest evaluator.

Previous Check: 9 Appearances, 0-1, 4.76 ERA. 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 5.2 IP

Current: 25 Appearances, 1-1, 2.41. 18.2 IP, 15 H, 3 BB, 19 K

2008: 86 Appearances, 3-4, 4.05. 53.1 IP, 57 H, 26 BB, 50 K

  • John Grabow: Qualified for the +/- Pitches category in 2006 and regressed in 2007. In 2008, he has qualified for the +/- Pitches in addition to the +/- Inning category.

Previous Check: 7 Appearances, 1-0, 0.00 ERA. 7 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 7.1 IP

Current: 22 Appearances, 3-0, 4.71. 21 IP, 26 H, 11 BB, 17 K

2008: 74 Appearances, 6-3, 2.84. 76 IP, 60 H, 37 BB, 62 K

Updates as actions warrant on these 5 pitchers. Next update (likely around All-Star Break) will let you know if the season ended then, if they would have regressed under the criteria. Stay tuned for that.

Extra Reports: 5/26: TOR @ BAL

  • Ricky Romero is a 24 year old left hander who stands 6-0, 215. He has a medium frame that can add a little more muscle. He attacks hitters from a 3/4 release. His fastball is a straight 4-seam, though he will mix in a 2-seam that shows some fade also. His changeup has good sink, but very little fade and is an average pitch. His slider was a loopy 10-4 pitch that was also average. His curveball was a sweeping 10-4 pitch that looks just like his slider, but had more downward break to it. He has above average command of his average offerings. Romero is another that looks to be a # 4 starter, as he has plus velocity for a left handed starter, but doesn't have a real reliable 2nd pitch to get swings and misses. The worst possible division he could be in is the AL East and you have to wonder how a finesse left hander will hold up there. Brett Cecil has better stuff as a left hander for the Jays in my opinion.

Romero Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (89-93), SL (81-83), CU (84)

2nd: FB (88-93), CU (84-85)

3rd: FB (91-94), CB (76-80), SL (80-85), CU (86)

  • Jason Berken is a 25 year old right hander who made his major league debut in this game. The right hander has a small (6-0, 175) frame that is maxed out. He throws from over the top. His changeup shows good and good sink and is a slightly above average pitch and is also his best off-speed offering. His fastball shows very little fade and is a straight 4-seam, though he will also mix in a 2-seam that has solid fade and good sink. His slider is a 2-7 pitch whose break can be inconsistent, one time braeking down with good depth and then being a flat hit me pitch the next. Blue Jays were squaring him up very well and hit everything hard. His curveball is a 12-6 pitch with decent bite. He profiles to me as a best case scenario being a swingman. He just doesn't have the consistent command of all his pitches to the corners to consistently get big league hitters out. He also doesn't have the one out pitch to make him a 1 inning reliever (though if his velocity jumps up 2 miles per hour moving to 1 inning spurts, he can be effective). Kind of a pitching tweener.

Berken Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (92-94), CU (83-85), SL (83-85)

2nd: FB (91-94), CU (82-83), SL (80-83)

3rd: FB (91-93), CU (82-83), SL (84), CB (79)

Extra Reports: 5/24: BAL @ WAS

  • Brad Bergesen is a 23 year old who stands 6-3, 215. The righthander has a medium frame that can add a little more muscle. He attacks hitters from a 3/4 release that is almost low 3/4. His fastball has good sink and a little fade and it looks like he can add and subtract movement from it when he wants. His changeup moves just like his fastball and has great fade and a little sink. His slider is a 3-7 pitch that has good bite, but is just average. He is a groundball machine who showed an ability to pound the zone, but he was in the middle of the plate a little too often. Bergesen does not profile well as a starter to me, being at best, a # 5. However, I think he could be a very useful ROOGY in the mold of a Chad Bradford, running an average fastball into the hands of right handers and getting them to hit groundballs. He could probably spot start as well and not hurt you.

Bergesen Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (87-91), CU (79-82), SL (81)

2nd: FB (85-89), SL (80-83)

3rd: FB (86-88), SL (79-82), CU (81)

  • Shairon Martis was another pitcher who disappointed me. The 6-1, 225 pound right hander has a medium frame that is maxed out. The 21 year old attacked hitters from a 3/4 release. His fastball is a 4-seam that flashes a little fade, but is fairly straight. His changeup has good fade and sink. His slider shows good late bite and is a sharp, 2-7 pitch. He has slightly above average command of all his pitches, but he can also hit spurts where he can't hit a spot. He falls behind hitters in spurts after showing good command the previous innings. He throws his change nearly as much as his fastball. He struggled to command the change and left it high and off the armside corner. Martis profiles as a # 4 or # 5 starter and appears to be a solid innings eater. I thought he possibly could have been a # 3 based off scouting reports I had read, but I don't see it.

Martis Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (89-91), CU (84-85)

2nd: FB (89-92), SL (82-84), CU (88)

3rd: FB (89-91), SL (78-83), CU (82-84)

Extra Reports: 5/4: LAA @ OAK

  • Joe Saunders is a 28 year old left hander who stands 6-3, 210. His medium to big frame appears to be maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, the left hander featured a straight 4-seam fastball, a changeup with good fade and sink and a curveball with some bite and is on the same plane as his fastball, causing a lot of check swings and allowing it to play up. His fastball is average, while both his off-speed pitches are above average offerings. He takes advantage of the Angels speed and pitches to contact, rarely walking or striking out hitters. A solid # 4 starter for another couple of years, but these types of lefties tend to have a very small margin for error and as soon as his fastball velocity dips, he is screwed.

Saunders Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (88-92), CU (83), CB (75)

2nd: FB (87-92), CU (82), CB (77)

  • I only watched 2 innings of this game because I was unimpressed with Brett Anderson. A 21 year old lefty, he stands 6-4, 215 and his big frame can add a little more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a slurvy slider, a straight 4-seam fastball, a 11-5 curve and a change. His slider was a 11-4 offering. His curveball was a big breaking pitch that had a lot of drop, but can not serve as a strikeout pitch. His changeup has some fade, but is just an average offering. He has just average command (like a Japanese pitcher, his ability to hit spots may have been overhyped) and he has a tendency to leave pitches up in the zone. Everything the Angels hit, they hit hard. You can't give up on a 21 year old pitching in the majors, but I just don't know what upside is left to him. I can't really see him sitting consistently at 90 as I don't know think there is that much more muscle to be added. He has an average fastball, average slider, average curve and average change. Back of the rotation starter right now and I will project him to remain a # 4 or # 5. It is very hard for me to say that a 21 year old in his first taste of the bigs only projects as a # 4 or # 5, but he had that much struggles in this outing.

Anderson Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (87-91), CB (76), SL (82-84)

2nd: FB (88-92), SL (82-84), CU (82-85)

  • Times to 1st

Maicer Izturis: 4.3 (RH)

Howie Kendrick: 4.4

Extra Reports: 5/23: TB @ FLA

  • Jeff Niemann is a 6-9, 260 pound behemoth at the age of 26. The right hander hsa a big frame that looks to be maxed out. He kicks his front foot out in his delivery and really jumps at the hitters. He has a high 3/4 release and has some cocking action in his arm. His curveball is a big breaking 12-6 pitch with good bite, but is more of a get ahead pitch then an out pitch. His deuce does go from the letters to the dirt, so he can probably get some strikeouts with it. His fastball was a 4-seam that flashes fade. His slider is just a harder curve that has less break, but is sharper and was a 2-7 type offering. His slider can break, or it can just hang there. His fastball command can be inconsistent and he went through innings where he left all his pitches up around the letters. His shoulder will fly open on occasion. His changeup showed a little fade, but was a below average offering. He is a little slow to the plate, clocking at 1.3 and 1.2 on stolen bases on fastballs. Niemann profiles best as a # 4 starter, as there is no projection left and what you see with him is what you get. The only improvement he could make are being more consistent with his command and trying to refine his slider and change. But, a solid # 4 starter as he is now.

Niemann Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (91-94), CB (74-75)

2nd: FB (91-94), CB (74), SL (80-84)

3rd: FB (88-94), CB (75), SL (82)

4th: FB (91-94), CB (75-77), SL (80-82)

5th: FB (89-93), CB (74-76), SL (78-79), CU (82)

6th: FB (90-93), SL (84-85)

  • Sean West is a 22 year old who is another behemoth on the mound, standing 6-8, 200. The left hander has a big frame that can add a lot more muscle, especially to his lower half. From a high 3/4 release, he is able to generate very easy velocity. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His wind-up looks fairly clean and is a good drop and drive delivery, but he does look to land hard on his front leg and has some whipping-like arm action. He gets his entire frame into his mechanics, allowing him to max out his velocity. His softer slider is a loopy 10-4 offering that is more of a slurve. His hard slider is a 11-4 breaker that is fairly sharp and gets good bite and depth. His changeup is a straight change that doesn't move much, but it looks like a fastball out of his hand and he liked to use it in fastball counts and get hitters out on their front legs. He will work his fastball inside and outside on hitters. His slider was anywhere from fringe average to above average. He has a tendency to not finish his slider, causing it to hang up in the zone. He prefers to backdoor sliders then throw the hard inside slider to righties. His command of all his pitches is inconsistent as a whole, but looks to be average right now. His command with his fastball gets into trouble as he occassionally will try to guide it into the strike zone, causing it to go off the plate to his armside. His command started to go away in the 4th. West looks to be a solid # 4 starter right now and he, unlike Niemann, has some projection left. West can add some more muscle and it isn't out of the realm of possibility for him to sit at 92-94 for an entire game. West's slider needs to be refined and his command needs to improve, but he has a ceiling of a # 2 starter (with a more likely ceiling being a slightly above average # 3).

West Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (92-95), SL (81-86)

2nd: FB (92-93), CU (85), SL (81-83)

3rd: FB (90-92), SL (80-82)

4th: FB (89-91), CU (83), SL (79-82)

5th: FB (89-92), CU (83), SL (79-82)

  • Burke Badenhop is a 25 year old reliever who stands 6-5, 220. The right hander has a big frame that appears to be maxed out. The right hander is a sinker balling reliever, featuring a fastball with above average fade and some sink. His slider is a 3-9 pitch that is putrid. This was the worst slider I have seen thus far this year. His changeup moves similar to his fastball with some fade. He was 1.1 to the plate on 2 stolen bases. Badenhop is a AAA reliever with little upside.

Badenhop Inning By Inning:

1st: FB (87-89), SL (78-80)

2nd: FB (86-89), SL (79-82), CU (81)

  • Pop Times for Catchers on Stolen Bases:

Ronny Paulino: 1.9, 2.0

Michel Hernandez: 1.9, 1.8

  • Times to 1st:

Emilio Bonifacio: 4.0 (LH)

Jeremy Hermida: 4.5 (LH)

Chris Coghlan: 4.2 (LH)

Michel Hernandez: 4.6

B.J. Upton: 4.5

Evan Longoria: 4.5

SD vs. ARI

  • Jake Peavy is a 28 year old who is 6-1, 195. The right hander has a medium frame that can add a little more muscle. From a 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 89-93, a slider at 80-85, a curveball at 78-80, a change at 81-86 and a cutter at 84-86. His slider shows good late bite and flashes as a plus 2-7 pitch. His fastball shows above average fade and is a hard 2-seamer. His change shows decent fade and sink. His cutter has some cut, but not a whole lot. His curveball is a mini 12-6 that is fairly sharp. He has a high effort delivery and will also drop down and throw fastballs and sliders from sidearm. In my eyes, Jake Peavy is no longer a # 1. He has settled in as a very good # 2 starter and he isn't a good fit for bandboxes. Still a good pitcher, just not an ace.
  • Billy Buckner attacked hitters from an over the top release with a fastball at 85-91 (sat at 88-90), a curveball at 75-82 and a change at 80-86. His fastball has above average fade and some sink. His change shows good fade and sink and looks to be an above average offering. His curveball is a 12-6 pitch that he struggled to get a feel for early (threw quite a few hangers), but was able to command it better later. He will throw any of his pitches to any batter in any count. Still looks like a back of the rotation starter to me.
  • Clay Zavada attacked from a 3/4, almost low 3/4 release with a fastball at 87-89, a slider at 74 and a change at 77-81. His change is a straight change with some sink and was his main off-speed pitch tonight. His fastball has a little run, but not much. His slider is a frisbee 10-4 pitch. His command was somewhat spotty as well. Still think he could be a decent inning reliever, but the lack of velocity on his fastball will always be hurting him and he doesn't have a real go-to pitch against lefties.
  • Leo Rosales is a 27 year old who stands 6-1, 205. The right hander has a medium frame that is maxed out. From an over the top release, he showed a fastball at 86-89, a slider at 80-85 and a change at 79-83. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His slider has good downward bite and is an 11-7 offering. His changeup shows good fade and movement and is slightly above average. Rosales can have very spotty command and this is what got him in trouble tonight. A middle reliever if he can be consistent with his command and a 4-A player if he doesn't, it really is that simple.
  • Luke Gregerson attacked from a low 3/4 with a fastball at 89-91 and a slider at 80-81. His fastball is a 2-seam with good fade while his slider showed good downward movement.
  • Drew Macias is a 26 year old outfielder who is 6-3, 200. The lefty hitter and thrower has a medium to big frame with room to add a little more muscle. He has a slightly open stance that is very similar to that of Chris Coghlan. He moves the bat in a circle a little bit as he waits for the pitcher to deliver. Macias looks like a 4th OF, as his swing doesn't have great power potential and he was unable to show any speed as he struck out in his only plate appearance.
  • Esmerling Vasquez showed a fastball at 93-96, a slider at 79-80 and a changeup at 83-88 from a high 3/4 release. The fastball is a straight 4-seam. The slider is a 2-7 type pitch that showed good bite, but not great. The changeup is fairly straight with some sink and used it to battle the Padres lefty sticks. His slider is his most promising off-speed offering and he will need to further develop it to reach his potential. He showed average command and pitched to the middle of the plate a little too much.
  • Edward Mujica showed a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 82-85 and a splitter at 87-88 from a high 3/4 release. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His split showed great bite and solid fade. His slider is a 2-7 pitch with decent bite. He needs another pitch to complement his fastball and his splitter looks like his best option. Both his off-speed pitches are inconsistent with break and command. He has above average command of his fastball.
  • Jon Rauch showed a fastball at 88-93 (mostly at 91), a slider at 82, a curveball at 73-74 and a changeup at 86. His fastball has good sinking movement and some fade. His curveball is a 12-6 pitch that is a little loopy. His slider is a 1-7 offering that goes nearly straight downward. He also threw a straight change. Solid middle reliever, but not a set-up man, as he has no true out pitch.
  • Greg Burke featured a fastball at 89-91 and a slider at 81-83. His fastball shows great late and a little sink and he has plus command with it, as he peppered the outside corner at the knees with it. His slider is a little loopy for my taste and is a 3-8 offering. He needs to get more consistent with his slider.
  • Heath Bell is a 6-3, 250 pound behemoth for a closer. The 31 year old has a medium frame that is maxed out. From an over the top release, he threw 2 pitches: a fastball at 93 and a curveball at 83. The curveball was a 12-6 pitch that was very sharp. His fastball was a straight 4-seam.

Will only be doing reports on the starting pitchers tomorrow so I can get through all the games.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Yankees 10, Mezza Luna 0

We shut out Mezza Luna tonight 10-0. I was either 1-4 or 2-4 depending on the book you looked at. I didn't hit a ball out of the infield, as there pitchers were throwing about 55 miles per hour and you guys know how I hit that...

Next game is Saturday

Games You Want Reports On?

This is your chance. With a true off day tomorrow, I will be taking home some games to watch and get reports on. If there is a game you would like me to watch, let me know. If there is a certain hitter in a game you would like a report on, let me know and I study his AB's.

Games to Expect Reports on Tomorrow (and players focusing on, bold means player I really wanted to see):

5/26: TOR @ BAL: Ricky Romero, Jesse Carlson, Scott Downs, Jason Berken, Matt Albers, Jim Johnson, Nolan Reimold

5/23: TB @ FLA: Jeff Niemann, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, Jason Isringhausen, Sean West, Burke Badenhop, Dan Meyer, Leo Nunez, Matt Lindstrom, Hayden Penn

5/4: LAA @ OAK: Joe Saunders, Jose Arredondo, Brian Fuentes, Brett Anderson, Sean Gallagher, Jerry Blevins, Gregorio Petit

5/24: BAL @ WAS: Brad Bergesen, Chris Ray, Jamie Walker, Mark Hendrickson, Shairon Martis, Ron Villone, Joe Beimel, Joel Hanrahan

Any other games that you would like to see? I will look at every pitcher in a game, but if you want a specific hitter, let me know

Chart Observations: FLA @ PHI

  • Andrew Miller is a 24 year old with a massive frame (6-6, 210). The left hander can add a ton of his muscle to his frame and should be able to carry weight around 230 to 240. He is extremely long and very lanky, making it difficult for him to consistently repeat his mechanics. From a high 3/4, almost over the top release he featured a fastball at 86-94 (sat at 89-91), a hard slider at 77-79, a softer slider at 73-75 and a changeup at 82-83. He has some wrist pronation as he takes his arm back in the arm circle. He doesn't move his hands much in the wind-up and they only move when he kicks his leg. He trying to have a drop and drive delivery and it looks like his arm is lagging behind. He throws 2 fastballs, a 2-seam that has some run and a little sink and a 4-seam fastball that is pretty straight. SL is a 10-4, 11-5 type offering that is pretty loopy when used as a get ahead pitch (pretty much only threw these on the first pitch of at bats). His harder slider is sharper and has much better depth, but it looks as if he can only bounce it. His changeup is a pretty straight offering with a little sink and preferred this to his slider in most situations. Miller is a definite project, as his velocity is down from when he was drafted. His slider and changeup are just average offerings right now and his command is a tick below average. I would prefer Miller to get more time in AAA before pitching in the majors, but he is making improvement, as slow as they may be. Miller has the potential of a # 2 (a TON of projection there) and I think his realistic upside at this stage is a # 4. Disappointed in what he showed last night.
  • Joe Blanton somehow struck out 11 and it sure didn't seem like it while charting the game. The 28 year who stands 6-3, 250 has a medium frame that is maxed out. From an over the top release, the right hander showed a fastball at 87-92, a slider at 81-85, a curveball at 75-79 and a change at 82-86. Blanton works very fast on the mound and has very good tempo on the mound. His curveball is a 12-6 offering with good bite and depth and will use it as a strikeout pitch or get ahead pitch, but it is better served as a get ahead offering. His fastball is a 2-seamer that shows good fade and sink. His slider is a 1-7 pitch that can be sharp and has good bite. His slider can be anywhere from average to plus in an outing. His changeup moves just like his fastball and I actually thought he should have thrown more changes away then sliders in to the lefties on the Marlins. Blanton is a good middle of the rotation starter, though I think he would fit better in another ballpark. Slightly above average # 4 who is pitching to his potential.
  • Chris Leroux made his major league debut last night. The 25 year old who stands 6-6, 210 has a big frame to add more muscle and he can probably get up to 225 or 230 without sacrificing anything. The right hander showed a fastball at 92-95, a slider at 84-87 and a changeup at 86-87. He generates a good downhill plane for all his pitches. His slider is a 2-7 offering with decent bite. His fastball is a 2-seamer with good natural sink and some fade. His changeup shows good late and good sink. His fastball, slider and change all flashed above average in this outing and he looked to have above average command. This is a guy that you can see eventually becoming a closer. However, the Phillies hit his good stuff fairly well and didn't appear to be that fooled by his offerings. Still, I think his upside is that of a closer.
  • Ryan Madson is a 28 year old who stands 6-6, 200. The right hander has a big frame that has room to add a lot more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 94-97, a cutter at 90 and a changeup at 82-83. His changeup has excellent fade and above average sink and is a plus pitch. His cutter has good late cut in on lefties and is thrown hard and is an above average pitch. His fastball flashed some late fade, but it looks to be a straight 4-seam. The best pitcher in the Phillies bullpen right now, he should be closing.
  • Chad Durbin is a 31 year old who stands 6-2, 220. The right hander has a medium frame that is maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 88-91, a cutter at 85-90 and a changeup at 77. His fastball is a 2-seam with above average fade and decent sink and is a slightly above average offering. His cutter has decent bite, but is just an average offering. His changeup doesn't do much of anything and is just a show pitch. He is a pitcher who is greater then the sum of his parts due to his typical above average command (didn't show it tonight) who is likely a solid 10th or 11th guy to have in a bullpen.
  • Scott Eyre is a 37 year old who stands 6-1, 225. The left hander has a medium frame that is maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, the lefty showed a fastball at 88-89 and a slider at 81. Both of his pitches are average offerings, as his slider is a frisbee slider and his fastball is a straight 4-seam. A LOOGY who seems to be getting by more on reputation then stuff, he probably has another 1 or 2 major league seasons left.
  • Brad Lidge is a 32 year old who stands 6-5, 215. The right hander has a big frame that is maxed out. From a high 3/4 release he showed a fastball at 92-95 and a slider at 85-86. His slider is a plus, borderline plus-plus pitch that is very sharp and is a 1-7 offering. It plays up due to his innate command of it. His fastball is a straight 4-seam that he has struggled to command this season and has a tendency to leave it up in the zone. He should be setting up Madson while he works out the kinks.

Peavy vs. Buckner tonight. After a Baseball game.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Chart Observations: FLA @ PHI

  • Chris Volstad is a 22 year old who stands 6-8, 225. The right hander has a big frame with room to add a ton more muscle everywhere. From an over the top release, he showcased a fastball at 90-94, a curveball at 79-83 and a changeup at 82-85. His curveball is a sharp breaking 12-6 pitch with good bite. His changeup shows excellent fade and average sink. His fastball shows good late sink and above average fade. All of his pitches are above average and he generates a great downhill plane for his pitches. He needs to be more consistent with all his offerings break-wise and command-wise, as some pitches will flatten out and he will also struggle to locate his fastball. None of these are too concerning for a young pitcher. An average # 3 right now, he shows the frame to be able to get his fastball up consistently to the 93-95 area and if he can do that, he is a # 2.
  • Jamie Moyer is a 46 year old who is 6-0 185. The lefthander's frame really doesn't matter, as it won't be adding any muscle any way, it will just be wasting away. From an over the top release, he showed a fastball at 80-83, a cutter at 74-80, a changeup at 74-76 and a curveball at 67-70. His fastball is a 2-seamer with above average movement and is an average offering. His cutter is an 11-4 type pitch with good depth and looks similar to his curveball and is an average offering. His changeup gets good and sink and shows a little fade and is average. His curveball is a big breaking 11-5 pitch that is also average. Moyer has plus command and that is how he gets by. When he misses, even by a little bit, he gets hit hard. A # 5 starter and who knows how long he can keep this up?
  • Chan Ho Park is a 35 year old who stands 6-2, 210. The right hander has a medium frame that looks to be maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, he shows a fastball at 89-94, a slider at 80-85, a curveball at 75-80 and a changeup at 83-84. His fastball shows above average fade with little sink and is an average offering. His changeup has decent bite and some fade and is also an average offering. His slider is a 3rd average offering with decent break, a 2-7 pitch. His curveball is a 12-6 offering with decent bite and is somewhat loopy, a 4th average pitch. Park has above average command and looks like a swingman.
  • Dan Meyer is a 27 year old who stands 6-3, 220. Yes, this is the same Dan Meyer who was the centerpiece of the Tim Hudson deal. The left hander has a medium to big frame that looks to be maxed out. From an over the top release, he showed a fastball at 92 and a slider at 85. His fastball is a straight 4-seam while his slider is a frisbee slider that is above average due to its velocity. Currently a LOOGY for the Marlins, I think he could be an inning reliever as opposed to a batter reliever, but is still a middle reliever for a contender.
  • Leo Nunez is a 25 year old who stands 6-1, 175. The right hander has a medium frame with room to add more muscle, especially in the lower half. From a 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 94-97, a changeup at 85-88 and a slider at 86. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His changeup shows great fade and looks like a fastball until it takes a right turn about halfway to home plate and is a plus pitch. His slider is a sharp 2-7 pitch with good late bite and is an above average offering. I think he is a future closer, though he does have a high effort delivery.
  • Matt Lindstrom is a 29 year old who stands 6-4, 210. The flame throwing right hander has a big frame with room to add more muscle and can probably get up to 225. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fastball at 95-99 and a slider at 83-84. His fastball is a straight 4-seam while his slider has the bottom drop out of it with great bite. An above average offering, but one that he doesn't seem to be able to throw for strikes. A legit closer who will need to answer command questions (didn't show any in this outing) to be recognized as an above average closer.

Got into work at 8 AM after falling asleep around 1:30 to ensure I had enough time to make my baseball game today, so of course it gets cancelled. Chart, score, baseball game tomorrow.

Chart Observations: WAS @ NYM

  • John Lannan started for the Nats. The 24 year old left hander who stands 6-4, 215 has a big frame with room to add a little more muscle. From a high 3/4, almost over the top release, he featured a fastball at 85-89, a curveball at 70-76, a slider at 81-82 and a changeup at 80-82. His fastball has good run and a little sink and is an average offering. His slider is a 10-4 offering with good depth and is a slightly above average pitch. His chnageup moves like a 2-seamer and is just a little slower and is also just an average pitch. His curveball is an 11-5 offering that can be a little loopy and that is also average. He really fights himself to try and keep his fastball down and tends to miss armside with his pitches. He is a nibbler who prefers to stay on the inside or outside corners. Most of his fastballs are aimed at the knees on the outside corner and he hits the spot quite often. He is a # 4 starter right now, who could grow into a # 3. It also isn't out of the realm of possibility to see him add enough muscle to get up to 89-91 consistently with his fastball.
  • John Maine is a 28 year old who stands 6-4, 200. The right hander has a big frame with room to add a lot more muscle. From a 3/4 release, Maine showed a fastball at 89-93, a slider at 85-87 and a changeup at 82-87. His fastball has a little fade to it and is a slightly above average pitch due to its velocity. His changeup shows good fade and sink and is an above average offering. His slider shows good bite and late drop and is a 2-7 type pitch that is above average. Maine's struggles aren't with his stuff, it is with his command. He struggles to command his fastball and has a tendency to leave it up (bad) and in the middle of the plate (double bad). He likes to throw his slider with 2 strikes and starts it at the knees on the inside corner to lefties (or outside corner to righties) and have the natural movement take it out of the zone. He misses his spots more then any pitcher I have seen this year, constantly throwing outside fastballs when the catcher wants it in and vice versa. To left handers, he likes to throw sliders in and changes away. Maine is a # 3 starter right now with ace potential still with his frame and his command struggles. He likely won't start throwing any harder, though it wouldn't be crazy to see him at 92-94 consistently in a couple year. Will he ever solve his command issues and take that next step to be a # 2?
  • Jesus Colome is a 31 year old who stands 6-2, 240. The right hander has a medium frame that is maxed out. From a low 3/4, almost side arm, release he showed a fastball at 92-95 and a slider at 87-90. His slider has more bite to it then side to side movement, but it can flatten out at times. It is a sharp and late breaking pitch with 3-7 type movement when on. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. Both his pitches are above average, but he has a tendency to fall behind hitters and throw that 4-seam over the middle of the plate. Looks like a solid middle reliever who has a drop and drive delivery from the stretch.
  • Bobby Parnell had some command issues. His fastball showed good fade and sink. From his high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 93-98 and a slider at 84-86. His slider showed very good bite and is a 2-7 type pitch. He has a classic drop and drive delivery with a big leg kick. His slider flashes plus. He will over throw his fastball, causing him to leave it up. He really struggled with his control in this outing and wasn't missing by much, but continued to nibble and didn't make an adjustment to throw more over the middle of the plate.
  • Pedro Feliciano is a 32 year old left hander who stands 5-10, 190. He has a small frame that is maxed out. From a sidearm release, he showed a fastball at 88 and a slider at 82-84. His slider is a frisbee slider and is a 9-4 type offering. Fastball shows some sink and a little fade. He generates very good deception and throws across his body a little bit. A good LOOGY and is a good # 1 lefty to have in a pen.
  • J.J. Putz is a 32 year old who stand 6-5, 250. The right hander has a big frame that is maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 92-95, a splitter at 83-86 and a slider at 85. His fastball showed good fade and some sink. He was flying open mechanically in his 2nd inning of work, causing him to lose command of his fastball. Splitter has excellent fade, but only average bite. His slider is a 1-7 offering that shows good bite. His splitter is every where from average to plus. Good top set-up man who could probably still close right now.
  • Daniel Cabrera is a 27 year old who stands 6-9, 260. The right hander has a big frame that is maxed out. From an over the top release, he showed a fastball at 88-92 and a slider at 76-80. His fastball is a straight 4-seam that flashes some fade. His slider is a 11-6 offering that shows some late bite, but is just an average offering and is very inconsistent. He struggles to repeate his mechanics and will throw 40 foot sliders. He is hell for catchers, as he has no idea where the ball is going once he releases it and he spikes quite a few pitches. He is done, but you will likely hear from him again in a couple years.
  • Jason Bergmann showed a fastball at 92 and a curveball at 75-77 from a high 3/4 release. The curveball is a 12-6 breaker with average break and bite. His fastball is a 2-seam with excellent fade. Solid middle reliever.
  • Kip Wells is a 32 year old who stands 6-3, 205. The right hander has a medium to big frame that looks like it can add more muscle, especially on the lower half. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 92-96 and a slider at 86. His fastball shows above average fade and solid sink and is an above average offering. His slider is sharp with late break and is a 3-9 type pitch that is also above average. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility for him to turn into a closer.
  • Francisco Rodriguez is a 26 year old who stands 6-0, 195. The right hander has a medium frame that is maxed out. From a high 3/4, almost over the top release he showed a fastball at 92-95, a curveball at 80-83 and a changeup at 83-87. The fastball shows above average fade and a little sink and is an above average offering. His curveball is sharp with late break and is a 12-6 offering that is above average. His changeup has excellent dive and has above average fade and just disappears and is a plus pitch. He has a max effort delivery and will likely be a strong closer for another couple of years.

Monday, May 25, 2009

LAD @ COL

  • Eric Stults was the starter for the Dodgers. The 6-1, 220 pound left hander has a medium frame that appears to be maxed out. He was battling a thumb injury and featured a fastball at 85-92 (sat at 88-90), a curve at 73-78, a change at 79-82 and a cutter at 87-92 from a high 3/4 release. His changeup is a straight change that looks like a fastball out of his hand and is his best pitch. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His curveball is a 10-4 type pitch and is inconsistent with hits break, showing good tilt once and then flattening out the next. His cutter doesn't have much cut. He really battled his command today (walking 7) and also looked to be guiding his changeup over the plate as opposed to throwing it. His upside is that of a # 5 starter or swingman. He is pitching to that potential right now.
  • Jorge De La Rosa had the tale of 2 games. The 6-1, 210 pound left hander featured a 3/4 release. The 27 year old has a medium frame that appears to be maxed out and featured a fastball at 89-95, a slider at 84-86, a changeup at 82-85 and a curveball at 72-74. His fastball is a straight 4-seam that has a little run. His changeup has good run and sink and is above average. The slider can flatten out, but is a 9-5 type pitch. Both his change and slider have very similar action and have good late drop. His curveball is a big breaking 10-4 pitch. In the first 3 innings, his command was tremendous. He was getting ahead, throwing all his pitches for strikes and hit the outside corner consistently with his fastball (which sat at 92-94). However, in the 4th he returned to the De La Rosa that had washed out of multiple organizations. He struggled to command his fastball and allowed some bloop hits make him feel like he had to do it himself, meaning he lived even more on the fringe. A guy that has all the attribues to be a middle of the rotation starter (minus the command) and will likely settle in as a back end starter. He has had a lot of difficulty going through the order a 2nd time, so he may need to become a reliever, where he could be lights out for an inning and would profile as a left handed set-up man if your manager could stomach late walks.
  • Jaime Hoffmann is a 24 year old who is a big 6-3, 235. His medium to big frame is maxed out. He has an open stance very similar to that of Russell Branyan from the right side with a little bit of a bat wiggle. His trigger is a step to close his stance and cocks the bat. He has an above average arm and above average raw power with average speed. He seems to have all the attributes one looks for in a starting corner outfielder, but I have some doubts about his ability to hit for average. He appears to have a hole on the inside part to a pitcher with a good fastball. He was very comfortable driving the ball the other way. I think he settles in as a 4th OF, but one that is around more for his pinch-hitting then his defense.
  • Dexter Fowler is a 23 year old who stands 6-4, 185. The switch hitter/righty thrower has a big frame that has a lot of room to add more muscle. From the right side, he has an open stance with a little shoulder wiggle. Trigger is a step in with little hand movement. From the left side, he is slightly open and holds his hands almost against his chest. His trigger is striding and bringing the bat back, ready to hit. I agree with most scouts that I like his lefty swing better and think it projects for more power. He is a plus runner who is very aggressive on the bases. He is a true 5 tool player, but will all 5 play? His frame shows the ability to be a 20 home run hitter, but he likely settles in around 15. His speed will always make a good base stealer and should get at least 30 every year. His throwing arm is slightly above average and he is a very good defensive center fielder. He also shows some plate discipline. A guy that looks very similar to a Grady Sizemore lite down the road with less power and more speed.
  • Joel Peralta is a 33 year old who stands 5-11, 195. The right hander has a small frame that appears to be maxed out. From an over the top release, he featured a fastball at 90-92, a curveball at 77-78 and a splitter at 78-83. His splitter has a little dive with good fade. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His curveball is a somewhat flat 3-9 type that is an average offering. He rocks back and forth on the rubber before coming set. All 3 of his pitches are just average offerings, giving him little room for error especially at Coors. I think he bounces around a little more for another season and then will be done.
  • Josh Fogg is a 32 year old who stands 6-0, 205. He has a medium frame that is maxed out. Fogg featured a fastball at 85-88, a cutter at 85-88, a slider at 83 and a changeup at 80-81 from a 3/4 release. His fastball is a 2-seamer with decent fade and a little sink. His change moves his FB and is just a little slower. His cutter moves into lefties and is an average offering. Slider looks like the cutter, but has some bite and is slower. A long reliever/swing man type that you hope doesn't need to throw alot. He is likely looking to take the recently waived Glendon Rusch's role.
  • Jeff Weaver is a 32 year old who stands 6-5, 200. His big frame has room to add a lot more muscle, but that likely won't be happening. From a low 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 89-91, a slider at 79-82 and a changeup at 83-84. His slider is somewhat sharp with very little movement. His changeup shows decent fade, but is just average. His fastball is 2-seam with some run due to arm angle. Will drop down sidearm with 2 strikes to present another look to a hitter. A long reliever who has no potential left as a starter. He threw nearly as many sliders as fastballs.
  • Will Ohman is a 31 year old who stands 6-2, 210. The left hander has a medium frame that is maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 89-93 and a slider at 85-88. His fastball is a straight 4-seam while his slider is a 10-5 pitch that shows good side-to-side movement, but not much in regards to late bite. I still am not a fan of him being your top lefty in the pen, as left handers don't seem to be nearly as fooled as the last couple of years. A solid 2nd lefty though.
  • Jason Grilli is a 32 year old who stands 6-5, 225. The right hander has a big frame that is close to being maxed out. From an over the top release, he featured a fastball at 92-94 and a slider at 85-88. His fastball is a straight 4-seamer. His slider is sharp, but doesn't have a ton of movement and is very inconsistent. It can show good movement, but not always. A solid middle reliever (today withstanding).
  • Alan Embree is an immortal, pitching as a 38 year old standing at 6-2, 200. The lefthander has a medium frame that is maxed out. He showed a fastball at 92-95, a slider at 76-80 and a change at 83. His slider is a loopy 9-4 that seems to have lost something over the years. He still has his plus 4-seam fastball though and that will always allow him to be in a big league bullpen. His changeup is nothing special and went straight into the dirt. A good 2nd lefty to have and he can get righthanders out on occasion.
  • Ronald Belisario is a 26 year old who stands 6-3, 235. The righthander's medium to big frame is maxed out. From a 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 93-96 and a slider at 85-89. His 2-seam fastball has a ton of fade and is a plus pitch, though he is inconsistent with his command of it. His slider is an average offering with 11-7 type break. Solid middle reliever who could be a setup man or even a closer depending on the development of his off speed pitch and his command.
  • Manny Corpas is a 26 year old who stands 6-3, 170. The righthander has a medium to big frame that has a lot of room to add more muscle. From a 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 90-93 and a slider at 81-85. He is not the same pitcher he was a couple years ago when he closed. His fastball is a 2-seam with a little fade and is just an average offering. His slider is somewhat sharp and is a 3-9 pitch, but is also just average. He is now just a run of the mill middle reliever after big things were projected for him after his strong 2007 season.
  • Guillermo Mota is a 35 year old who stands 6-5, 235. He has a big frame that is maxed out. From a 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 94-95, a slider at 87 and a change at 85-86. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His slider is still sharp and is a 2-7 type pitch. His changeup has good fade and sink. He is an average middle reliever who is teetering on the brink of retirement/free agency if he doesn't begin getting better results on balls in play.

2 extra charts tomorrow. Plus a baseball game.

Chart Observations: ATL @ TOR

  • Jair Jurrjens is a 23 year old who stands 6-1, 200. His medium frame has room to add a little more muscle. From an over the top release, he featured a fastball at 87-95 (sat at 90-92), a changeup at 78-83 and a slider at 77-80. He has very clean mechanics is deceptive. He brings his hands slightly over his head and also hides the ball by having his glove hand separate high and cover his release point until the last second. His changeup has excellent fade and a little sink. It isn't a strikeout pitch, but will cause the balls to be hit in play lightly. An above average pitch that is borderline plus. His fastball has a little fade and some sink and is slightly above average. His slider is more of an up and down pitch and is a solid 3rd pitch and also slightly above average. He is a strong # 3 starter and think he is pitching to his upside right now, as his frame doesn't show a ton of projection left and he already has plus command.
  • Scott Richmond is a 29 year old who stands 6-5, 215. He has a big frame that can add more muscle and get to at least 230 if he so desires. From an over the top release, he showed a fastball at 87-92, a slider at 82-85, a curveball at 74-78 and threw 1 change at 85. He has a classic drop and drive delivery. His curveball is a big breaking 12-6 pitch that can freeze hitters. Above average pitch, but does have a tendency to allow home runs on it (2 in the first inning on the CB). His slider is a 2-7 offering and is above average with good depth. Likes to start it on the outside corner and let it break off, causing many swinging strikes and weak contact. He generates a good downhill plane for his pitches and his fastball has natural sink. His changeup is a pretty straight offering and is just a show pitch.
  • Jesse Carlson is a 28 year old who is 6-0, 160. Medium frame with long legs and has room to add more muscle. The sidearming left hander showed a fastball at 89 and a slider at 81-83. The slider is a sweeping pitch with some downward movement and cuts across most of the plate. His fastball also has good side to side movement with a little sink. He throws across his body, allowing him to generate even more deception.
  • Peter Moylan showed a fastball at 86-89 and a slider at 76-78. His fastball has great fade and a little sink. His slider doesn't have a ton of break either way. It can be somewhat sharp, but is just an average offering. He generates good deception and is more of a submariner then a sidearmer. He really battled his command today. He looks like he could be a solid ROOGY with his release, but he looks more like a 10th or 11th man in the pen.
  • Eric O'Flaherty is a 24 year old who stands 6-2, 220. The left hander has a medium frame with room to add more muscle, mostly in his lower half. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fastabll at 92, a slider at 83-85 and a changeup at 82. His slider is a 10-5 offering and is a sweeping slider with great downward movement, bite and depth and is close to being a plus pitch. His changeup has some sink, but no fade and is fringy. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. Is a solid LOOGY to have in a pen and looks like he could be good enough to be the # 1 lefty in a pen.
  • Jeff Bennett is a 28 year old who stands 6-3, 200. He has a medium to big frame that is maxed out. From an over the top release, he showed a fastball at 92 and a slider at 87. His fastball shows some good fade. His slider was a 1-7 type pitch that hung more then it broke. This guy looks done from the two outings I have seen.
  • Shawn Camp is a 33 year old who stands 6-0, 205. He has a medium frame that looks to be maxed out. From a low 3/4 release, he featured a fastball at 86-87, a slider at 78-80 and a changeup at 81. He has some whipping arm action. His slider is sharp, but doesn't have a lot of movement. His fastball has above average fade and some sink. His changeup moves just like his fastball and is an average offering. He is a guy who looks to be a 10th or 11th guy in a pen.
  • Jason Frasor is a 31 year old who stands (shockingly) at 5-9, 175. He has a small frame that looks to be maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 92-94, a slider at 84-86 and a splitter at 84-86. He has a drop and drive delivery from the stretch with a leg kick. Fastball has a little fade to it, but not a whole lot. His split shows some sharp break and good fade. Slider is a sharp 2-8 offering. Decent depth and more downward movement then side-to-side. Solid right handed reliever who is best in a middle relief role, but won't kill you as a setup guy.
  • Rafael Soriano showed a straight FB at 90-93 and a 2-7 slider at 81. from a high 3/4 release. His slider was decent, but not as sharp as two nights ago.
  • Brandon League is a 26 year old who stands 6-2, 200 pounds. He has a medium frame with room to add more muscle, especially in the lower half. From a low 3/4, almost sidearm, release he showed a fastball at 94-96, a slider at 85-87 and a changeup at 83-85. His changeup shows very good fade and a little sink and is an above average offering. His slider is a sharp 3-7 offering with good depth and is a tick above average. His fastball has decent fade, but not much sink, though it has a lot of action out of his hand. Solid middle reliever right now and if he can continue to work through his command (a tick above averaeg right now), he could be a set-up man.
  • Manny Acosta is a 28 year old who stands 6-4, 170 pounds. He has a long and lean frame with room to add a ton more muscle. From an over the top release. he showed a fastball at 91-97 (sat at 94-95), a curveball at 78-83 and a changeup at 84. His fastball is a 4-seam with natural sink due to him generating a good downhill plane through his delivery. His curveball is an 11-5 offering with good sink, but doesn't appear to be a strikeout pitch. His changeup has good depth and fade and is an above average offering. He adds and subtracts velocity from his curveball depending on what he wants it to do. Solid middle reliever who still has the look of a set-up man to me.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Chart Observations: BAL @ WAS

  • Koji Uehara is the only Japanese pitcher who had a reputation of being a command pitcher to have it translate in the big leagues. He is a 33 year old who stands 6-1, 190. His medium frame has a lot more room to add muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 87-90, a cutter at 84-85, a splitter at 79-82 and a curveball at 73. His fastball is a 2-seamer with good fade. His splitter has solid drop and fade, but is just an average offering. His cutter has more downward movement then side to side and is also just an average offering. His curveball was a 12-6 pitch that was also average. He has plus command and is your typical starting rotation placeholder while the prospects get ready. He can probably have a solid year this year, but his best case scenarios will always be with an ERA around 4.20-4.60.
  • Ross Detwiler is a 23 year old who stands 6-5, 185. His big frame has A LOT of room to add more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, the left hander showed a fastball at 89-95, a curveball at 74-78 and changeup at 82-84. He has a "drop and drive" wind-up that allows him to maximize his frame, but he also throws across his body and has good deception throughout his delivery. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His curveball is kind of a loopy 10-5, but got sharper as the game went out. His changeup is straight and teases as above average when he is able to throw it in the zone, which was once for about 18. He needs to work on finishing his change, as almost all of them were far out and away from righties. He still battles his command, having spurts pop up where he can't throw a strike to save his life (walked Uehara on 4 pitches and Brian Roberts on 5). He is a nibbler right now and needs to focus more on attacking with his above average fastball and above average curveball. He rarely comes inside, preferring to pound the outer half of the zone, which he does very well. A guy that could be a # 2 depending on if he is able to sit in the 93-94 range (not out of question with his frame), but is more likely to settle in as a middle of the rotation starter with above average velocity for a left hander.
  • Justin Maxwell is a 25 year old who is 6-5 235. He has a big frame with room to add a lot more muscle. An open stance, he is slightly crouched and holds the bat horizontal over his shoulder. Struggles to recognize off-speed offerings and tends to check swing on balls that end up out of the zone. He will bunt for a hit. This guy needs consistent AB's, as he has a fairly long injury history. If he is up here, he should play everyday. If not, he should be in AAA getting 500 at bats. A potential 5-tool player, he will likely end up utilizing above average speed and have solid to above average power (15-25 homers) with a decent average (.260-.270). He is a strong defensive CF, making a tremendous catch to rob Adam Jones of a home run. He went up and over and pulled the ball back in. Should check that out on Gameday if it doesn't depress you too much (top of the 1st).
  • Nolan Reimold is a 25 year old who is 6-4, 205. He is another big frame with room to add a lot more muscle. He has a fairly straight-up stance with a little bat wiggle. He also utilizes a double step for his trigger. He has a tendency to get a little long with his swing. He absolutely raked at AAA Norfolk to get his call-up (.394-.485-.743 with 9 HR's in 109 at bats) but also showed some contact issues (25 strikeouts or 20 % of the time he went to the plate, he struck out). Hard to get a feel for from the 1 game. He never put a good swing on a ball, but his stance shows a guy that should have above average pop. He will likely struggle against big league breaking balls in the early going. He shows average to a tick above average speed and profiles best as a corner outfielder. Don't have a feel for him yet.
  • Brian Bass is a 27 year old who stands 6-2, 215. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fastball at 91-93, a slider at 82-87, a curveball at 78-80 and a changeup at 80. When I saw him at Rochester 2 years ago, he impressed me and I thought he could be a serviceable reliever. He has proven me right as a swingman who can finish games and also help when a starter leaves early, resting other relievers. His fastball has good 2-seam movement with good fade. His slider is an average offering that has a little bite. His curveball is an above average 2-7 pitch with good bite and depth. His change moves like a fastball, but is much slower. Is pitching to his potential right now.
  • Matt Albers is a 26 year old who stands 6-0, 205. His medium is maxed out and there also appears to be a little bad weight there. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 91-93 and a curveball at 77-79. The fastball shows a little fade and sink. His curveball is a 12-6 that is sharp with good tilt and is a strikeout pitch. A solid middle reliever, but don't see him being a set-up guy or closer.
  • Julian Tavarez was 91 with his fastball and 81-84 with his slider
  • Ron Villone was 87-89 with his fastball, 84 with his slider and 82 with his change.
  • Jason Bergmann is a 27 year old who stands 6-3, 220. His medium to big frame is maxed out. He featured a fastball at 91-93 and a curveball at 77-78 from a 3/4 release. His fastball is hard and had good fade. His curveball is a 12-6 like offering that has good tilt and could be a strikeout pitch. He releases the curveball a little higher then his fastball, which may be something opposing hitters will soon pick up on. A guy who was a starter that is trying to revive his career and he looks like he has a shot to be a solid middle reliever.
  • Jim Johnson is a 25 year old who stands 6-5, 225. His big frame still has room to add a little more muscle. From an over the top release, he showed a fastball at 92-95 and a curveball at 78. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His curveabll is a 12-6 offering that doesn't have great tilt and is more of an early strike pitch then a strikeout pitch. Another Orioles reliever that looks better as a middle reliever then a set-up man. I think he will have a hard time replicating the season he posted last year.
  • Joel Hanrahan threw all fastballs at 94-95.
  • George Sherrill is a 32 year old who stands 6-0, 230. His medium is maxed out and he doesn't look anything like a baseball player, more like a beer league softball player, as he is carrying what appears to be quite a bit of bad weight. From a high 3/4 release, he features a fastball at 89-92 and a slider at 72-75. He will slide step and leg kick. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His slider is a loopy 11-5 offering that looks more like a curveball. It has good downward movement and shows good tilt and can be sharp. A solid lefty to have in a pen, but he isn't your protypical closer by any means.

Chart and the 3:10 Dodgers-Rockies game tomorrow featuring Eric Stults and Jorge De La Rosa.

Chart Observations: TOR @ ATL

  • Casey Janssen, a 6-3 225 pounder, made his return to the big leagues last night after being away for over a year due to injury. Formerly a reliever, the 27 year old has come back as a starter, which he was when he first came up. Janssen has a medium to big frame that looks like it can still add muscle. His mechanics are very similar to those of Jordan Zimmermann of the Nats, but is slower through them. He attacked from a high 3/4 release with a fastball at 89-92, a cutter at 87-91, a curveball at 73-76, a changeup at 79-82 and a slider at 81-82. His main pitch was the cutter to the lefty heavy Braves order he faced. His cutters shows good cut and he will throw it to both sides of the plate. His fastball is a 2-seamer with some good fade to it. The sliders shows a lot of downward bite, but not much in regards to side-to-side movement. His curveball is a 12-6/11-7 type offering with good movement and is a big breaker. It is more of a pitch to get an early strike with then to rack up strikeouts, but he likes to throw it with 2 strikes. Changeup shows good fade and sink and is somewhat late breaking. His cutter will occassionally show some good downward movement. His pitches (and mostly his cutter) appeared to start playing down in the third and they lost some movement. He is a back of the rotation starter who has a shot to be a solid # 3. He features 3 above average offerings in his arsenal (cutter, change - needs to throw more, curveball) and his fastball and slider are average. He also has plus command. This is the mold Toronto tends to develop pitchers in and a season similar to that of Shaun Marcum or Dustin McGowan from last season isn't out of reach.
  • Derek Lowe opposed him and is really paying off for the Braves. The 35 year old who stands 6-6, 230 has a big frame that could still add muscle, but no sense in projecting a 35 year old. He featured a fastball at 85-89 and a slider at 79-83. His fastball is a dynamite sinker that is just a tick below Brandon Webb's and he also has great command of the pitch, able to start it off the outside corner so it comes back or start it on the outside corner at the knees and have it break out of the zone. His slider is a 3-7 type pitch that has good late break and has good depth. Lowe is a solid # 2 starter, but would ideally be a # 3 starter. His plus sinker and above average slider help him get out most teams with good defenses behind him and he has proved his durability over the years. He is a big body though, so you have to wonder just how much longer he can do this.
  • Diory Hernandez is a 25 year old shortstop who stands 6-0, 185. His medium frame can add a little more muscle, but appears to be close to maxed out. He has soft hands with an above average arm and has very good fielding mechanics and is very smooth. He features a fairly straight-up stance and bounces the bat off his shoulder as he waits for the pitcher to begin his motion. A slightly open stance, he takes a double step, stepping in and then towards the pitcher. On a team full of utility infielders, he is another. His bat appears to be fringy, as he struggled badly against the Blue Jays arms. He looks like, at best, a gap hitter who could hit .280. He will never hit for a lot of power, but did appear to have above average speed. A utility player who won't hit enough to beat out the likes of Omar Infante or Martin Prado, but one that can fill in ably.
  • Jordan Schafer is a 22 year old who stands 6-1, 200. He has a medium frame with room to add a lot more muscle. He has a fairly straight-up stance and triggers with a toe turn. Hands never really move in the trigger. He is still learning how to command the strike zone and not swing at pitches he can't do anything with. He is an interesting guy. I saw him in AA and saw a 4th OF. He has improved since then mechanically, but his latest struggles make him difficult to analyze. He has a strong swing from the left side of the plate, allowing you to project him to hit 15-20 home runs a season down the road. He has above average speed and is above average defensively. His ability to hit for average will need to be answered though (and it should be once he learns to command the zone). He should be a guy that hits .280-.400-.450 in his prime and shows a good eye right now. Those are valuable numbers and he profiles decently as an everyday player in CF. Another knock may be a need for a platoon partner against hard throwing lefties.
  • B.J. Ryan is a 33 year old who stands 6-5, 250 pounds. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fastball at 87-89 and a slider at 79-83. Put simply, his days in the back end of a bullpen are over. His big frame is maxed out and his arm hasn't recovered from his latest couple of injuries. His fastball is a straight 4-seam and 87-89 is a big difference from the 93-95 he used to be at. His slider is a 10-4 breaker that is just an average offering now. Still a solid lefty to have in the pen, just don't want him to the be the ONLY lefty you have in the pen. Solid 2nd lefty, which isn't what Toronto is paying him big bucks for.
  • Peter Moylan is a 30 year old who stands 6-2, 200. The sidearmer was 89-91 with his fastball. His medium frame is maxed out. His fastball showed good fade, but not much in regards to sink. He has good velocity for a sidearmer, but it is hard to make a read on him without seeing an off-speed offering.
  • Brian Wolfe is a 28 year old who stands 6-2, 230. He has a medium frame that is close to being maxed out, but may be able to add another 5 or 10 pounds of muscle to his lower half. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fastball at 91-96, a cutter at 92 and a curveball at 80-81. Wolfe's fastball is explosive and teases you with great downward bite and fade, but isn't consistent with the movement, as it sometimes flattens out. His curveball is a hard-breaking 12-6. His cutter has some action in to lefties, but not much. Solid middle reliever.
  • Mike Gonzalez is a 31 year old who stands 6-2, 215. His medium frame is maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 92-93 and a slider anywhere from 80-85. He rocks back and forth on the rubber as he is getting the sign to make the hitter not feel very comfortable in the box and when to start his trigger. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His slider is a 10-5 type pitch that has gotten a little loopy and is just an above average offering as opposed to the plus offering it used to be. It does have good downward movement and depth. More of a set-up guy to me then a closer.
  • Rafael Soriano is a 29 year old who stands 6-1, 220. He has a medium frame that is maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fastball at 92-93 and a slider at 80-83. His fastaball is a straight 4-seam while his slider is a 3-7 pitch that has good depth and is somewhat late breaking. I think he profiles better as a closer then Gonzalez, but neither is a real lockdown guy and he is another who is better off in a setup role.

CHC @ SD

  • Josh Geer was on the mound for the Padres and the 25 year old has a 6-3, 195 pound frame that has room to add more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fastball at 83-88 (sat at 86-87), a slider at 77-81 and a changeup at 73-76. His fastball is a 2-seam with plus sink and fade. His changeup moves similar to his fastball. Slider is loopy and almost looks like a CB. Works primarily on the outside with almost all his offerings, but will come inside every once in awhile. Still a back-end/spot starter type.
  • Randy Wells saw his scoreless streak finally end. The 26 year old who is 6-3 230 has a frame that can still add some muscle. From an over the top release, he featured a fastball at 88-92, a slider at 82-87 and a changeup at 82-86. His fastball is a 2-seam that has solid sink and fade. HIs changeup is a plus pitch and has great sink and fade and looks like a FB out of his hand. His slider is a solid average to above average offering with good bite and depth. Very clean delivery and uses his frame to generate a great downhill plane for his pitches. He is likely a ceiling as a # 4 starter, and likely settles in as a multi-inning reliever and spot starter for the Cubs.
  • Greg Burke is a 6-4, 215 pound 26 year old who has a big frame that can still add more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 90-91, a slider at 81-82 and a changeup at 84. His slider has good bite, but is very inconsistent with it's bite. His fastball shows some fade, but not much. The change was a show pitch that did almost nothing. All his offerings are average and he has above average command, so if he was going to stick in the majors with a team, it would have to be the Padres with their massive park.
  • Bobby Scales is a 31 year old who stands 6-0 and weighs 185 pounds. The switch-hitting righty thrower has a medium frame with room to add more muscle. He has a fairly straight-up stance and wiggles most of his body and the bat casually as he waits for the pitcher to begin his wind up. Utilizes a toe turn for his trigger. Is a hustle guy who can play a lot of positions in the field. He is a temporary filler (AAA emergency guy) type who could probably be a decent hitter (.260), but will add no power and not a whole lot of speed. Classic tweener whose age will work against him in attempts to land a utility job. Closest comparison is also his highest upside in my eyes: Marco Scutaro.
  • Luke Gregerson is a 25 year old who stands 6-3, 200. He has a big frame that still has ability to add muscle. From a low 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 90, a changeup at 78 and a slider at 82-84. His slider has good depth and bite and shows late break making it an above average (and flashing plus) pitch. His fastball moves like a 2-seam and shows good fade with the changeup being nearly identical, just slower. A guy who impressed me tonight throwing above average slider after above average slider, he has a ceiling of a set-up man.
  • Carlos Marmol is a 26 year old who stands 6-2, 180. His medium frame has a lot of room to add more muscle, especially in the lower part. From a low 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 94-96 and a slider at 83-85. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His slider has great late bite and is very sharp, a true plus pitch. He is a future closer if he stays healthy.
  • Edward Mujica is a 25 year old who stands 6-3, 215. His medium frame can add a little bit more muscle, but not much. He showed a fastball at 93-94, a slider at 82-83 and a splitter at 88. His slider was flat in this outing while his splitter also did nothing. What gets him by is plus command of a plus 4-seam fastball. Set-up guy is his top potential, but would expect him to settle in as a middle reliever.

2 charts tomorrow. Still haven't decided about going to church (which means I am probably going to sleep in sadly).

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Yankees 12, Boyertown Metz 3

The Yankees won again against Boyertown without 2 of our better hitters. I was 2-3 with 2 walks, 2 runs and 3 stolen bases. Our next game is Tuesday.

Chart Observations: TB @ FLA

  • Andy Sonnanstine started for the Rays and is a 26 year old who stands 6-3 and weighs 190. Sonnanstine's medium frame can still add muscle, especially in the lower half. Sonnanstine attacked hitters with a cutter at 86-89, a fastball at 85-90, a slider at 77-80, a curveball at 73-81 and a changeup at 82 from a high 3/4 release. His cutter has good sink and cut and is an above average offering. His curveball is a big breaking 12-6 that has solid bite and is a tick above average. His fastball is a 2-seamer with good fade and is a tick above average as well. His slider breaks early and has good depth, but is just an average offering. His changeup showed some good fade, but only threw it once and he will sometimes drop down to throw a cutter. Sonnanstine's control is plus, but his command is just above average as he has a tendency to leave cutters in the middle of the plate. He is a back of the rotation starter and is likely pitching at his ceiling now.
  • Ricky Nolasco opposed him and got optioned to AAA after the game for his performance. Nolasco is just 25 and stands 6-2 and weighs 220 pounds, though he didn't look it. His medium frame still has room for more muscle and projection. From a high 3/4 release, he featured a fatball at 88-93, a curveball at 74-76, a slider at 83-84 and a changeup at 83-84. Nolasco's fastball was a 2-seamer with some sink to it and sat at 89-91. This has to be a concern, as I thought he was closer to 92-94 last season. His curveball is a 12-6 offering that shows good bite and can be a strikeout pitch. His slider shows good late break and tends to go hard out of the zone. It's a 3-7 type pitch that he only showed an ability to put in 1 spot: down and in at a lefties ankles (or down and out to a righties ankles). His struggles are more command related then stuff related (except for fastball velocity). Both his slider and curveball are still above average offerings and his changeup is average. His fastball is just average right now due to his lack of command. His control is fine, but he leaves too many fastballs in the middle of the plate. He tended to fall behind hitters and that caused him to throw more hittable fastballs. He also struggled to throw his off-speed stuff for strikes. He should be fine to return to his role of a # 2 starter after a quick refresher course. He is similar to Brett Myers in that he is having the same type of issues and the Marlins are hoping this course of action works.
  • Reid Brignac is a 23 year old who is 6-3 195 pounds. The lefty hitter, righty thrower has a medium frame that still has projection and can likely add at least 10 more pounds of muscle. He features a slightly crouched stance and is open. His trigger is a step in followed by a toe turn and brings the bat up and cocks it back. Brignac (only saw 2 at bats) has the looks of a guy that can control the strike zone and is a line drive hitter. He doesn't project for too much power and probably at his best will have average power for a SS. His issue is can he stay at SS? Didn't see enough of his glove to know for sure, but if he doesn't, his only real option is 2B or utility. I personally see a utility player, but one that can be used well with a platoon. Want to see him some more to get a better read on him, he is almost the hitting equivalent of Justin Masterson to me and am not sure where he fits best.
  • Brett Hayes is a 25 year old who stands 6-1 and weighs 200 pounds. The righty hitter has a medium frame with room to add a little more muscle. He has a slightly closed and slightly crouched stance that looks similar to Dustin Pedroia's setup wise. Moves bat up and strides as a trigger. He came up as a catcher, but subbed in at 1st base last night. His bat will not play at 1st, as he lunged to get his 1st base hit in the only at bat he had. He doesn't look to have much power potential and would have below average power for a catcher and poor power for a 1st basemen. All his usefulness is going to be tied up in his ability to catch, as his bat won't play well at 1st.
  • Dave Davidson took over a new role as the bain of my existence. Davidson is a 25 year old left hander who stands 6-1, 200 pounds and has a medium frame that is pretty close to maxed out. After being waived by the Pirates (not a good sign), the Marlins picked him up. He showed a fastball at 90-93, a changeup at 80-88 and a curveball at 76-79 from a 3/4 release. The changeup was the tough pitch to identify, as most sat at 86-88 and that is terrible separation. It looks like a fastball out of his hand, but that's because it is only two miles per hour slower and doesn't have much action. Curveball is an average offering and is a little too loopy for my taste. His command is below average and he had trouble getting ahead and staying ahead. His best case scenario (needs a big bump in command) is to be a LOOGY, but he is likely a 4-A pitcher, but at least he has a hit in the majors.
  • Brian Sanches is a 30 year old with a 6-0, 195 pound frame. His frame has room to add a lot more muscle, but it likely won't be happening. He featured a fastball at 87-90, a slider at 77-83 and threw one split (81) and one curveball (74). His fastball is an average 2-seamer that has some fade to it. His slider is a 3-7 pitch and is slightly above average with solid bite and depth. His split showed good dive and fade, but he appeared to only use it as a show to a lefty, preferring to attack most hitters with FB-SL. 4-A reliever to me, as he has above average command but no true plus pitch to turn to.
  • Renyel Pinto attacked from a 3/4 release with a fastball at 87-92, a changeup at 79-81 and a slider at 78-81. His fastball is a 4-seam that has some run on it due to his release point. His changeup has plus drop and looks like a fastball out of his hand, but he struggles to command it. The slider is a frisbee slider that is a little loopy, but is a good pitch to lefties.
  • Kiko Calero was 88-90 with his fastball and 77-80 with his slider. His slider continues to be sharp and is a plus pitch, but his fastball is just average.
  • Dale Thayer made his big league debut for the Rays. The 28 year old who stands 6-0, 195 pounds has a medium frame that still has room to add about 5 more pounds of muscle. He has a low 3/4, almost sidearm release and showed a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 80-83 and a changeup at 84. Thayer's slider was inconsistent and sat anywhere from below average to above average. The above average sliders were sharp late breakers with great bite and depth, while the below average ones just hung. His fastball has great fade and looks like a plus pitch. He pitches to the middle of the plate too much. He starts his fastball on the outside corner and it finds its way to the middle of the plate. Changeup is just a show pitch. Looks like a middle reliever to me who is best utilized in 1 inning stints (pitched 3 innings in this one, was 93-94 in the 1st, 91-92 in the 3rd and his bad sliders were later).
  • Ross Gload was 76-80 with his fastball. Future Hall of Famer.
  • Have to love interleague play for something like this: Ross Gload vs. Dale Thayer. But Gload was pitching and Thayer was hitting. Gload got Thayer to break his bat (he is a rookie just called up yesterday, so he is going to have to apologize to someone for breaking one of their bats) and hit a comebacker. Very entertaining stuff that is funny to think that it is actually happening.
  • Good day to be a pitcher hitting, every pitcher that had their spot in the order come up got to hit for themselves. I can go without seeing a guy like Pinto or Davidson (even though he got a hit) swinging for themselves every game. At least they proved why they didn't make it to the bigs as hitters.

ARI @ OAK

  • Trevor Cahill is a 21 year old who stands 6-3 and weighs 210 pounds. He has a medium to big frame that can add a lot more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a 2-seam sinker at 85-92 (typically sat around 89-91), a slider at 83, a curveball at 77-79 and a changeup at 77-81. His fastball showed great sink and fade and is the first I have seen that is comparable to Brandon Webb's when it is on. His changeup is his best off-speed offering and is above average/borderline plus with it great fade and it looks like a fastball out of his hand. His slider was flat and he only threw one. His curveball is a 12-6 offering that is more of a get ahead pitch then a put away pitch. Cahill still has some issues in regards to commanding his stuff within the strike zone and will likely have a little steeper learning curve for command then his peers due to the sheer movement of his fastball. He is a groundball machine with a plus fastball and changeup. He liked to use FB-CU the 1st time through the order and then began mixing his breaking pitches in. Cahill profiles best as a middle of the rotation starter for a contender. It isn't hard to project him to be sitting at 92-94 with his sinker with his frame. It isn't blasphemous to say he could be the next Webb.
  • Billy Buckner opposed him. The 25 year old who stands 6-2 and 215 pounds has a medium frame with a lot of room to add muscle. From an over the top release, he showed a fastball at 87-92, a curveball at 76-82 and a changeup at 80-85. His changeup shows some consistent sink, but the fade is inconsistent. His fastball has some movement, but the sink is generated more from him generating a great downhill plane to throw his pitches. His curveball is a 12-6 pitch that shows some bite, but doesn't consistently finish it causing it to hang up in the zone. A classic tweener, I think he is best suited as a swingman in a pen giving you some spot starts. He is still projectable, but you have to wonder just how much more could be there. Likely a guy that bounces between the majors and AAA.
  • Craig Breslow made his 1st appearance with the A's and showed a fastball at 87 and a slider at 83 to get his hitter to hit into a double play.
  • Esmerling Vasquez is 25 years old and stands 6-1, 175 pounds. His medium frame has a ton of room to add muscle and he is very lanky with long arms, which could make it difficult for him to consistently repeat his mechanics. He threw one fastball at 93 to get his man out.
  • Clay Zavada features a mustache that would make Rollie Fingers proud. He is 24 years old and is 6-1 195 pounds with a medium frame that can add more muscle, especially in the lower body. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 87, a slider at 78 and a changeup at 78-80. Zavada's changeup shows good fade and sink and is an above average offering. His slider is a 10-5 type of pitch, but choked the only he threw. Looks like a rare lefty that may be able to get out both righties and lefties due to his above average curve. Profiles best as a middle reliever and could be a teams # 1 lefty out of the pen.
  • Santiago Casilla is 28 years old and has a medium (6-0, 200) frame that is maxed out. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 91-95, a slider at 83-86 and a changeup at 85. Casilla's changeup is a show pitch and he likes to go his sharp, late breaking slider to get strikeouts with 2 strikes. His fastball shows a little 2-seam movement. His command is average and that is what is holding him back from being a strong set up guy.
  • Jon Rauch is a 30 year old imposing presence (6-11, 290). For such a big guy, he doesn't show great velocity from his maxed out frame, sitting at 91-93 with his fastball, throwing a curve at 75 and a changeup at 85-87. He generates a great downhill plane for his pitches, but his fastball is a straight 4-seam. His changeup is fairly straight and doesn't have a lot of action to it other then the velocity difference. His curveball is a 12-6 offering. He shows above average command and is a solid middle reliever who can set-up and close every once in awhile.

NYM @ BOS

  • Johan Santana got the start for the Mets and is a 30 year old who stands 6-0 and 21o pounds. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball at 89-93, a slider at 80-86 and a changeup at 79-84. His fastball has great movement and goes away from right handers. It is a plus offering. His changeup looks exactly like a his fastball out of his hand and then just disappears. It has great sink and fade and is truly a plus plus pitch. He has enough command of this pitch to throw it in any count, which really isn't fair. His slider has good late break and has some depth to it. He works from the 3rd base side of the rubber. Amongst the top 3 starters in baseball and may very well be the best.
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka was back from the DL and pitched fairly well. The 28 year old who stands 6 feet tall and weighs 185 pounds featured a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 81-85, a changeup at 82-84, a splitter at 81-83 and a cutter at 86-90 from a high 3/4 release. He has a typical Japanese windup, pausing at the balance point and when he takes a step back to start his windup. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His slider is slower then his cutter and has some good side to side movement, but the downward break is inconsistent. His cutter has good movement and moves enough to avoid hitters from squaring it up consistently. His changeup has some good drop and a little fade. Probably fits best as a # 4 on a contender due to his high pitch counts. If he could ever figure out how to throw quality strikes and not walk a lot of guys, he has the pitches to be an above average # 3 starter.
  • Justin Masterson fired 3 innings of relief today. The massive (6-6, 250) right hander featured a fastball at 89-95 and a slider at 82-85 from a low 3/4 release. Masterson has a big frame that appears to be maxed out and this is probably all you get from him from a stuff standpoint. He has a very quiet delivery until he breaks, where he gets his whole body into it and uses his 250 pounds to generate his velocity. His fastball has tremendous side to side movement and also shows some sink. He shows a rare ability to both command a pitch with that type of movement and to add and subtract to it for more movement or more speed as he desires. His slider is an above average offering with good depth, but it can be inconsistent. Masterson works painfully slow once runners reach base, but showed quicker to the plate then I thought, as I had him at 1 second on a fastball. Masterson's best role is probably that as a bridge reliever from the starter to the closer.
  • Daniel Murphy is a 24 year old who stands 6 foot 3 and weighs 210 pounds. The lefty hitter/righty thrower has a medium to big frame with room to grow. He has a slightly crouched stance and is hunched over. He leans back on his bat leg and wiggles his elbows around as the pitcher is going through his motion. He has the conventional trigger with a step and bringing his ahnds back. He holds the bat almost horizontal just above his shoulder. He is a talented offensive player, showing an ability to work a count to get a pitch he wants, plus bat control and projects to be a 15-20 home run guy in the majors at worst. His biggest issue is where to play him defensively. He has had a lot of struggles in the OF this season and will never have the required power to be a 1B (or the glove to offset the lack of power). A defensive tweener + being a professional hitter usually spells a pinch hitter. I anticipate him sticking in either an outfield corner or at 1B once Carlos Delgado is gone and look to see him hitting .280-.360-.450 with some stolen bases.
  • Bobby Parnell throws gas. The 23 year old who stands 6-4 and weighs 200 pounds showed an explosive 4-seam fastball at 96-100 from a high 3/4 release. He may have thrown one changeup that was average. He has a big frame that appears to be maxed out. He shows very easy velocity from a very clean windup and looks to have the looks of a future closer. Special arm.
  • Daniel Bard is a 23 year old who stands 6-4 and weighs 200 pounds. He has a long and lean frame that has room to add a lot more muscle. From a high 3/4 release, he showed a fastball from 96-97 and a curveball at 81-82. He battles his command from pitch to pitch and from batter to batter. The curveball showed great bite when used as a strikeout pitch, but flattened out when he tried to throw it for a strike. The Mets got some good swings on him, telling me he may not be quite ready for late inning work, but he is another big arm who has a bright future, likely as a set-up man.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

PIT @ WAS

  • Craig Stammen made his major league debut tonight. The 24 year old stands 6 foot 3 and 210 pounds. The strike thrower (only 8 walks and 14 strikeouts in 40 innings at AAA Syracuse) featured a fastball at 88-92, a curveball at 78-81 and a changeup at 81-85. He has a medium to big frame that has a lot of projectability left. He attacks from an over the opt release and some cocking action in his arm right before the release. His fastball is a moving 2-seam that has good sink and helps him force groundballs. His change also features good sink and fade and is an above average offering. His curveball is a 12-6 that is more of an early strike pitch then an out pitch. Above average offering as well. His command was plus, as he showed an ability to move the ball in and out and up and down all night until the 7th. He shows a very clean delivery apart from the cocking arm and is very projectable there as well. It isn't inconceivable to see him sitting at 90-92 and touching 94 in a couple years. Overall, he is a back of the rotation starter right now with the potential to be a middle of the rotation starter if he adds some more velocity or develops a true out pitch, as his strikeout numbers show an inability to finish hitters.
  • Ian Snell opposed him. The 5 foot 11, 200 pounder featured a fastball at 90-95, a slider at 81-88 and a changeup at 84-85 from a high 3/4 release. He has a smaller frame that is maxed out. He has almost a whip-like type arm action. His slider is sharp with good late bite and the bottom falls out of it. A true 2-plane pitch when on and it is a plus offering. His changeup has a little fade, flashes sink and is more of a show pitch then a pitch to get hitters out. It is an average offering and does look like a fastball when it comes out of his hand. Fastball has a little movement, but not much. He struggles with his command from batter to batter. First strike is very important for him and he tends to fall behind guys 2-0 or 3-1 and puts them in fastball counts. Overall, he is a middle of the rotation starter right now and if he can refine his command issues and also make a little bit more development in his changeup and gain that as a consistent pitch, then he can be an average # 2 starter.
  • Jason Jaramillo is a 26 year old who stands 6-0 and weighs 200 pounds. The switch hitting catcher has a medium frame that still has some projection to it. He has a very quiet setup and stance and keeps his hands still throughout. His trigger is just a toe turn. He will never hit more much, if any, power. He shows some ability as a catch and throw and also an ability to hit for a little average from both sides of the plate. He is a career backup and the question the Pirates will be asking themselves when Ryan Doumit comes off the DL is whether or not to keep him or Robinzon Diaz with the big club.
  • Julian Tavarez is a 35 year old who stands 6-2 and weighs 195 pounds. He has a high 3/4 release and attacked hitters with a 2-seam fastball at 88-92, a slider at 79-83 and a changeup at 82-85. Tavarez still gets plus movement to his 2 seam and continues to generate groundballs. His changeup shows good fade, but his slider has flattened out and is a below average offering. Tavarez is teetering between the brink of being a mop-up reliever and being retired.
  • Tom Gorzelanny is back in the big leagues as a reliever. The 6-2, 200 pound 26 year old featured a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 79-82, a curveball at 76 and a changeup at 83-85. His fastball is a straight 4-seam while his change shows good fade and is an average offering. His slider showed some decent late break and his 1 curve had decent bite. Really, his fastball is above average and all his other pitches are average offerings, with the changeup showing a little better. He comes from a high 3/4 release and kicks his right foot out as he comes down from his balance point. He also really battles his command from pitch to pitch and batter to batter and looks to be like someone who throwing strikes will always be an issue for. He profiles best as a multiple inning reliever if he can get his command sorted out, but should be a good 1 inning reliever (was good in his first inning, but got knocked around in the 2nd). I think his upside is that of a Rafael Perez when he was having good years.
  • Jesse Chavez is a 25 year old who stands 6-2 and weighs 170 pounds. He has a medium frame that still has a little projection left to it. From a high 3/4 release, he attacked hitters with a fastball at 94-96, threw 1 slider at 90 and a changeup at 85-86. His fastball is a straight 4-seam. His changeup features some fade and sink and is a tick above average. His slider is a 2-plane breaker and is also above average. When I saw him 2 years ago, I thought his upside was that of a middle reliever. But, his fastball has jumped from 92-93 to 94-96 and is now looking at being a set-up man and potential closer. Chavez does battle his command every once in awhile, but it should come around, as his mechanics are very clean. Probably will settle in as a 7th inning reliever for a contender.
  • Joel Hanrahan got the save and is a 6 foot 4, 250 pound behemoth on the mound. The 27 year old featured a straight, hard 4-seam fastball at 95-96 and a slider that was unusually flat at 85-86. He still looks like a closer to me.

2 scores tomorrow. Got the Mets (Santana) vs. Red Sox (Matsuzaka) and the Diamondbacks (Buckner) against the Athletics (Cahill).

Chart Observations: CLE @ KC

  • Fausto Carmona started for Cleveland really struggled commanding his stuff early. From a 3/4 release, Carmona attacks hitters with a fastball at 91-94, a slider at 81-84 and a changeup at 84-87. Carmona's fastball is a plus pitch because of its great movement down and away from lefties (or in to righties), but he has some issues commanding it due to its movement. He is a pitcher that needs to aim at the middle of the plate and allow the natural movement of the ball to take it to the corners. Carmona's slider is a fringe average pitch. His changeup is an above average offering that has similar fade and sink as his fastball, though he also has some issues commanding that pitch. He has average command of his stuff. He is currently a # 3 starter unless his command makes drastic strides and then he can be a # 2, which is his ceiling.
  • Gil Meche opposed him. Meche featured a fastball at 92-96, a curveball at 72-80, a cutter at 84-89 and a changeup at 83-87 from an over the top release. Meche's fastball is a plus pitch due to its velocity. His curveball is another plus offering with its 12-6 action and the big disparity in velocity between the two. His cutter is an above average offering that really gets in on the hands of left handers when it's right. His changeup is just a change of pace pitch to lefties to ensure they can't just sit on the fastball and is an average offering. His command is everywhere from average to plus from appearance to appearance. Meche is a strong # 2 right now and has the ceiling to be an ace if he can consistently command his stuff.
  • Aaron Laffey has shifted to the bullpen. You would think a starter that sat in the high 80's from the left side would have a difficult transition, but he has been throwing very well. From a high 3/4 release, Laffey attacked with a 2-seam fastball at 84-86, a 4-seam fastball at 87-90 and a slider at 79-82 (which he only threw to Mark Teahen). Laffey's fastball is average and his slider is a frisbee slider that is above average. He has some pretty good deception in his wind up and seems to hide the ball from lefties very well. With that taken into consideration, he has a shot to be a groundball generating LOOGY. Without seeing his changeup, it is hard to say if he is a guy that can consistently get out righties and lefties. Being a former starter, I would say its a good bet for him to have a ceiling as a multi-inning reliever, but one you would rather pitch when behind.
  • Rafael Betancourt featured a fastball at 93-95, a slider at 83-85 and a changeup at 88. Betancourt is a solid set-up man, as he showed above average command of his 2 main offerings. His fastball is a pretty straight 4-seam and his slider has great bite to it and it just drops out of the strike zone. Pitching at his ceiling right now.
  • Kerry Wood closed out the game and featured a 4-seam fastball at 93-96, a cut fastball at 88-92 and a curveball at 79-81. He still has a strong deuce, but it is just above average now. His cutter is an average offering that has just enough movement on it to make hitters pause a little bit. His 4-seam is a plus offering due to its velocity. He showed average command this outing and really struggled to get a release point on his cutter early. A solid closer, but not one of the elite's and he is currently pitching at his ceiling.
  • Jamey Wright featured a fastball at 89-93, a curveball at 78-79 and a cutter at 89 from a high 3/4 release. Wright has been having success out of the pen, but I don't see it lasting. Wright's fastball is a tick above average, his curveball is above average and his 1 cutter was below average. Wright tends to allow balls in play, so he will need a strong defense behind him to be good over the course of a full season. His command is above average, but can desert him at times, especially with his curveball. A solid middle reliever, but he is miscast as a set-up guy.
  • Sidney Ponson lost his job in the rotation and is now their long reliever. He attacked with a fastball at 88-92, a slider at 81-84, a changeup at 84-86 and a curveball at 76-77 from a high 3/4 release. All of his pitches are average offerings. His command can be erratic from appearance to appearance and even from batter to batter, which severely limits his use as a long reliever if he allows a lot of base runners. A guy that is likely pitching with his last chance at being in the bigs. Upside is that of a swingman, one that can start for you occasionally when minor injuries dictate it and that can finish some blowouts by throwing multiple innings.
  • Robinson Tejeda's big arm has landed him in Kansas City. He attacks hitters from a 3/4 release with a fastball at 92-97, a slider at 80-87 and a changeup at 81-86. Tejeda's fastball is a plus offering and he shows above average command of it. His slider is a below average offering that flashes above average. He has a tendency to throw spinners and is not consistent with any part of throwing his slider (release point, velocity, command). His change is also below average that flashes average and he has the same issues with his slider. He has always been looking for an off speed pitch to complement his fastball and needs to refine these offerings to reach his upside of a set-up man. Tejeda reaches back when he gets ahead 2 strikes (which may be part of the problem with the off speed offerings), hitting 96-97 on the gun during these times.

Got the Pirates-Nats at 7 tonight featuring Ian Snell and the major league debut of Craig Stammen.