For those of you unaware, I am author of a long study evaluating the regression of relief pitchers (and for those of you that do know, it is growing, I am currenly adding specific pitch type (which should be prepped for comparisons in the next couple of days) and a completely redone disabled list database). Anyways, I identified my top 5 candidates for regression according to the evals and here they are with a quick stat check and my reasoning:
- Luis Ayala: Posted 2nd highest Days of Rest score in his career in 2008 and has regressed each time he has posted a qualifying Days of Rest score.
Previous Check: 8 Appearances, 1-1, 6.48 ERA. 13 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 8.1 IP
Current: 18 Appearances, 1-1, 4.79. 20.2 IP, 28 H, 7 BB, 13 K
2008: 81 Appearances, 2-10, 5.71. 75.2 IP, 86 H, 24 BB, 50 K
- Dennys Reyes: The last time he was worked as hard as he was in 2008 was 2006. In 2007, he regressed greatly.
Previous Check: 9 Appearances, 0-1, 3.18 ERA. 3 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 5.2 IP
Current: 23 Appearances, 0-1, 3.21. 14 IP, 11 H, 5 BB, 15 K
2008: 75 Appearances, 3-0, 2.33. 46.1 IP, 40 H, 15 BB, 39 K
- Brad Lidge: Qualified under 4 criteria in 2008, as well as the 3-season Total IP for 2006-2008. The last time he qualified under these criteria (2006), he suffered regression the next year.
Previous Check: 8 Appearances, 0-1, 8.22 ERA. 10 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 7.2 IP
Current: 22 Appearances, 0-2, 8.85. 20.1 IP, 29 H, 13 BB, 22 K
2008: 72 Appearances, 2-0, 1.95. 69.1 IP, 50 H, 35 BB, 92 K
- Pedro Feliciano: Qualified under the Days or Rest criteria in 2007 and showed regression in 2008. For 2008, he qualified under 4 criteria, including an even greater number in the Days of Rest evaluator.
Previous Check: 9 Appearances, 0-1, 4.76 ERA. 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 5.2 IP
Current: 25 Appearances, 1-1, 2.41. 18.2 IP, 15 H, 3 BB, 19 K
2008: 86 Appearances, 3-4, 4.05. 53.1 IP, 57 H, 26 BB, 50 K
- John Grabow: Qualified for the +/- Pitches category in 2006 and regressed in 2007. In 2008, he has qualified for the +/- Pitches in addition to the +/- Inning category.
Previous Check: 7 Appearances, 1-0, 0.00 ERA. 7 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 7.1 IP
Current: 22 Appearances, 3-0, 4.71. 21 IP, 26 H, 11 BB, 17 K
2008: 74 Appearances, 6-3, 2.84. 76 IP, 60 H, 37 BB, 62 K
Updates as actions warrant on these 5 pitchers. Next update (likely around All-Star Break) will let you know if the season ended then, if they would have regressed under the criteria. Stay tuned for that.
